10:21 November 15, 2010
World in a tizzy and markets reacting sharply- nifty down 2 percent on Friday and losing 3.35 percent on a weekly basis. Volumes on the exchanges were upwards of 2 lac crores which is a bearish sign-dropping with high volume. Month on month also has receded into negative territory. It’s a no call zone for nifty-supports are pegged at 5990 –exactly a percent away-I am writing this on Sunday evening when Europe and Dow have closed poorly and crude has taken a lashing. Oscillators are moving into oversold zone but they do not matter when world situations create panic- China, Dubai and Ireland together with poor IIP numbers - I think for all of that and Powergrid FPO sucking liquidity we did ok. Would watch for a day to make a view on Nifty since it can go either way - however if 5990 were not to hold then decision to drop stocks, nifty would have to be made sooner-a bounce to 6150 is an equal probability. It would be better to trade individual stocks than nifty.
Coming to individual stocks and sectors –almost all took the fall on the chin- SBI the banking leader fell sharply this week- metals fell sharply on china concern- trading high betas like sugar and textiles gave up sharply- as usual FMCG and Pharma acted as defensive staying in flat to mildly positive territory
Looks like some high degree volatility maybe on the cards- it creeped in a week before Coal India IPO and I think will carry on till January- but looks like this is a consolidation on which will form a base for a new breakout to new all time highs- don’t know the bottom –but will buy on dips-maybe tom is a good day to deploy some funds
Stocks looking good-Sintex, Bilcare, Shree Cement, Lupin, Fact, RCF, Autoline, Adani Power and Ruchi Soya
Needless to say rest of market looks weak-bad results on rcom and rcap may weaken adag. Tata steel result impact would have to b considered .soft commodities may b bought on further dips
Nifty day levels-R2: 6256, R1: 6163, S1: 6018, S2: 5964
Nifty moving averages- SMA -10 -6181, 20-6115, 50-6007, 200-5402
Nifty moving averages- EMA -10-6172, 20-6136, 50-5990, 200-5480
Wishing you a safe week!