IIFL Research & Impact Analysis

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list Union & Railway Budget 2011-12 Wrap Up: IIFL Research
Check how effective was the budget and its impact on different sectors
list Union Budget 2011-12 - ‘Fiscal consolidation poses major challenge’
With subsidies and expenditure appearing understated, meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.6% for FY12 will be a major challenge.


Finance Ministers of India

Pranab Kumar Mukherjee
(1982-1985, Feb 2009-May 2009, May 2009-Continuing)

Pranab Kumar Mukherjee is a prominent leader of India National Congress. He has...
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Union & Railway Budget 2011-12 Wrap Up: IIFL Research

India Infoline Research Team / 15:32, Mar 01, 2011

Check how effective was the budget and its impact on different sectors

Union Budget
  • Non tax revenue figures have little upside. Income from communication services also appears high with no 3G this time round
  • While BE for tax revenues seem reasonable, the expenditure figures do not. Fiscal deficit of 4.9-5.0% looks more realistic
  • A fall in non-plan expenditure and a mere increase of 3.4% in total expenditure for 2011-12 looks unmanageable
  • Subsidy looks hugely understated at 12.5% lower than FY11- 38% lower for fuel, lower for fertilizers & flat 4 food as per BE!
  • NREGA has been linked to CPI. Here, the Govt could have done better by addressing leakages rather than increasing the amt.
  • Jain irrigation impacted with reduced custom duty on micro-irrigation equipment from 7.5% to 5%
  • Cement industry will be affected badly with hike in duties
  • Predictably, the budget was not able to give a detailed roadmap on GST, given the opposition from states
  • Sesa Goa was the biggest loser due to hike in export duty on iron ore to 20% from 5%
  • Surprisingly, hike in excise on tobacco did not come through, which is a huge positive for ITC
  • SEZ developers & SEZ units will be required to pay MAT. However, this would impact only their cash flows and not P/L
  • Increase in personal income tax slabs is only a sentimental positive. No real impact on purchasing power seen
  • The MAT impact on cash flow and lack of action in improving the slowing FDI were let downs in this budget
  • Allowing foreign investors 2 directly invest in equity mutual fund schemes is big positive from the stock market perspective


Railway Budget 

  • All-in-all, a negative railway budget, but it was expected to be a bad one...
  • One can only hope that the railway ministry picks up pace in PPP proposals and quickly sets up a single window for such approvals.
  •  Overall, finances have deteriorated and the operating ratio has touched ~93%.
  • No change in passenger rates along expected lines. Freight tariff was kept unchanged given the slowdown in business.
  • Power & wagon manufacturing projects face land acquisition & financing issues. Material sourcing remains concern 4 projects in smaller towns
  • Despite financial constraints, populist measures announced in railway budget in the light of upcoming state elections, along expected lines
  • Railways target 700km line addition compared to ~180km average, which is irrelevant bcoz even last year aim of 1,000km was badly missed
  • The Railway Budget sounds ambitious to state the least but given the track record, especially of last year, implementation seems unlikely