Whatever you may be sure of, be sure of this- you are dreadfully like other people.
It is tough to make a judgment as to who is following who as far as the global market is concerned; if at all there is such a thing. What we would advise is focus more on your own portfolio rather than rejoicing or sighing by movements in world or local indices.
As far as today goes, Asian markets don’t seem to be following the US market. Most regional benchmarks are slightly up or down. The Nifty futures trading in Singapore are pointing to a positive start. What remains to be seen is whether those gains can be extended further. One factor that some may have ignored is that the rally on Friday and Monday came on lower volume and turnover. Some caution after a big spurt is always good for the health of your portfolio.
At the same time, we do not rule out the possibility of the market surprising on the way up. It could continue to ride the current momentum, driven mainly by carry trades and easy liquidity. FII inflows have crossed $15bn already, according to a business daily.
RIL could be in the limelight as it holds its AGM today.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Monday at Rs5.44bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net sellers of Rs2.95bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs1.53bn. The foreign funds were net buyers of Rs6.72bn on Friday. Mutual funds were net buyers of Rs985mn in the cash segment on the same day. FIIs' net investments in Indian stocks this year has almost touched $15bn, as per SEBI's web site.
US stocks rallied to 13-month highs on Monday, as investors focused on the weak dollar and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that interest rates will remain low as the economy slowly recovers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 136 points, or 1.3%, to close at 10,406.96. That's the highest level for the blue-chip benchmark since Oct. 2008. The S&P 500 index gained 15.8 points, or 1.8%, to close above the psychologically important 1,100 level. The Nasdaq Composite rose 30 points, or 1.4%, to 2,197.5.
US stocks followed overseas markets higher in early trade following strong economic data out of Japan. The market held gains after a closely watched report on retail sales came in mixed. The main driver of the rally was the weak dollar, which helped push gold prices to a record high and fueled a 3% gain in the oil market.
The dollar has lost more than 7% this year against rival currencies as investors take advantage of US interest rates near zero percent to fund bets in more risky stock and commodities markets. On Monday, the battered greenback fell 0.3% to touch a 15-month low against a basket of other currencies.
Stocks have soared over the past two weeks, as investors have gained confidence in the pace of the economic recovery. The market has also been supported by signs that policy makers around the world will keep economic stimulus efforts in place for a prolonged period of time.
Monday's rally reflects the continuing resiliency of the market. Stocks could continue higher as the market overcomes key technical levels and more investors are drawn in from the sidelines. A sustained push above 1,100 points on the S&P 500 could pave the way for further gains in the weeks ahead. From a short-term perspective, that's very bullish for the market.
Meanwhile, Bernanke said that the US central bank expects to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended period" as the US economy recovers at a modest pace.
Speaking in New York, Bernanke said that financial conditions are significantly better than they were a year ago as markets around the world have stabilized. But he warned that constrained bank lending and the weak job market likely will prevent the expansion from being as robust as we would hope.
Bernanke also noted that the Fed, which is not responsible for managing currency fluctuations, is watching the decline of the US dollar. "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability."
Retail sales jumped 1.4% in October from the prior month, according to the Census Bureau, exceeding the increase of 0.9% expected by a consensus of economists. Excluding automobiles, sales rose 0.2%, falling short of the 0.4% gain forecast. That is compared to an overall decline of 1.5%, or an increase of 0.5% without auto sales, the prior month.
A report from the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed manufacturing activity in New York State slowed in November. The Empire State index fell to 23.51 in early November from 34.57 in October, which was a five-year high.
Home improvement retailer Lowe's reported a 30% drop in quarterly profit, but offered an optimistic outlook for fourth-quarter earnings.
General Motors (GM), releasing its first financial results since emerging from bankruptcy in July, said it lost $1.2 billion in the third quarter. It also said it would begin repaying government loans in December. The U.S. government would receive $1 billion, with nearly $200 million going to the governments of Canada and Ontario.
After the markets closed, troubled auto and mortgage lender GMAC shook up its executive suite, naming former Citigroup executive Michael Carpenter CEO.
The dollar was lower versus major international currencies. The dollar index, which measures the US currency's value against a basket of rivals, was down 0.3% to 74.94.
Commodities continued to benefit from the weaker dollar.
Oil for December delivery jumped $2.55 to close at $78.90 a barrel. And gold prices, which have been on a tear this month, surged $22.50 to end at a new record of $1,139.20 a troy ounce.
European shares traded at 13-month highs, with miners advancing as dollar weakness boosted metals futures, while deals and broker upgrades lent a hand elsewhere. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index, up for the fourth straight session, rose 1.4% to 251.24, building on a 2.8% gain made in the last week. The index is now at a level not seen since Oct. 2 last year when it closed at 254.24.
The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 1.6% at 5,382.67, while Germany's DAX index climbed 2.1% to 5,804.82 and the French CAC-40 index advanced 1.5% to 3,863.16. Russia's RTS index, which is dominated by commodity-sector firms, jumped 4.1% to 1,481.95.