The Euro area economy is expected to recover only very gradually, with growth momentum being further dampened by a number of factors, noted the European Central Bank (ECB) in its latest monthly report. The bank further stated that the tensions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on ﬁnancing conditions, the process of balance sheet adjustment in the ﬁnancial and non-ﬁnancial sectors and high unemployment are expected to weigh on the underlying growth momentum, which is also affected by the ongoing global slowdown.ECB says it may undertake outright open market operations, which will have adequate size to reach objective. Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 stood at 3.2% in June 2012, slightly higher than the 3.1% observed in the previous month and close to the rate observed at the end of the ﬁrst quarter. Overall, inﬂows into broad money in the second quarter were weak. Annual growth in M1 increased further to 3.5% in June, in line with the increased preference of investors for liquid instruments in an environment of low interest rates and high uncertainty. Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks' balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalization of all funding channels. To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis conﬁrms this picture.
Powered by Commodity Insights