Fundamental View
USD-INR
Dollar/rupee opened at 15-week low Monday on higher risk appetite after robust economic data from US as jobs scenario improved and manufacturing rose to 9-month high and China's non-manufacturing PMI rose to four-month high indicating a revival in growth in world's top two economies
Dollar/rupee may fall to four-month low this week amid expectations of higher overseas inflows ahead of the government's stake sale in NTPC Ltd. this month and on view euro could test its 16-month high
Dollar/rupee rebounded in evening trades Monday on demand for dollars from oil importers at lower levels and tracking fall in euro.
Cross-currencies
Euro/dollar snapped four-day gains Monday on political uncertainty in Spain as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces corruption allegations and after unemployment in Spain rose
Euro/dollar also fell on comments by German finance minister reminding that euro-zone crisis is far from over which dampened investor sentiments and forced them to book profits after reaching 15-month high.
MCX-SX
| Forex |
High |
Low |
Close |
% Chg |
OI |
| USD Feb |
53.4800 |
53.0825 |
53.4375 |
0.00 |
792,515 |
| USD Mar |
53.7425 |
53.3525 |
53.7075 |
0.00 |
203,268 |
| EUR Feb |
72.7225 |
72.2900 |
72.4550 |
(0.58) |
44,299 |
| EUR Mar |
72.8500 |
72.5600 |
72.7250 |
(0.56) |
11,351 |
| JPY Feb |
58.0125 |
57.2500 |
57.6200 |
(0.80) |
27,996 |
| JPY Mar |
57.9375 |
57.5075 |
57.8650 |
(0.81) |
1,019 |
| GBP Feb |
84.0925 |
82.5625 |
84.0125 |
(0.57) |
8,378 |
| GBP Mar |
84.3900 |
83.6850 |
84.3225 |
(0.54) |
1,241 |
| NSE FX |
| Forex |
High |
Low |
Close |
% Chg |
OI |
| USD Feb |
53.4800 |
53.0825 |
53.4450 |
0.01 |
1,702,029 |
| USD Mar |
53.7500 |
53.3550 |
53.7125 |
0.00 |
409,114 |
| EUR Feb |
72.7200 |
72.2925 |
72.4550 |
(0.58) |
66,789 |
| EUR Mar |
72.8400 |
72.5675 |
72.7275 |
(0.55) |
12,886 |
| JPY Feb |
57.6850 |
57.2525 |
57.6100 |
(0.80) |
27,874 |
| JPY Mar |
57.9150 |
57.5250 |
57.8575 |
(0.79) |
1,767 |
| GBP Feb |
84.1475 |
83.3400 |
84.0200 |
(0.57) |
9,888 |
| GBP Mar |
84.6800 |
83.6700 |
84.3450 |
(0.54) |
2,524 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Spot Rates |
| Forex |
High |
Low |
Close |
% Chg |
| EUR-USD |
1.3660 |
1.3505 |
1.3514 |
(0.92) |
| GBP-USD |
1.5772 |
1.5682 |
1.5760 |
0.43 |
| USD-JPY |
93.1800 |
92.2100 |
92.3800 |
(0.42) |
| DOLLAR INDEX |
79.6120 |
79.1620 |
79.5540 |
0.54 |
|
| RBI Reference rates |
| Forex |
Rate(INR) |
Pr Close |
% Chg |
| USD-INR |
53.0 |
53.3 |
(0.7) |
| EUR-INR |
72.2 |
72.6 |
(0.6) |
| GBP-INR |
83.2 |
84.6 |
(1.7) |
| JPY-INR |
57.2 |
57.9 |
(1.2) |
|
| Equity Indices |
| |
Close |
Pr Close |
% Chg |
| Nifty |
6,025.2 |
5,987.3 |
(0.2) |
| Sensex |
19,861.0 |
19,751.2 |
(0.2) |
| Dow Jones |
14,009.8 |
13,880.1 |
(0.9) |
| FTSE |
6,347.2 |
6,246.8 |
(1.6) |
|
| Benchmark Rates |
| |
Close |
|
|
| MIBOR (%) |
7.85 |
|
|
| LIBOR (%) |
0.30 |
|
|
| Call rates (%) |
7.75 |
|
|
| Forex reserves (US$bn) |
295.75 |
|
|
Technical View
USD-INR SPOT RATE
Prices have support at 52.85 and resistance at 53.50
NSE USD-INR FUTURE
Prices have support at 53 and resistance at 53.70
EUR-USD (1.3492): Prices have support at 1.3430 and resistance at 1.3530.
US Dollar Index (79.64): Prices have support at 79 and resistance level at 80.20.
INR Currency Future view
EUR-INR (Close: 71.89): Prices have support at 71.60 and resistance at 72.30.
GBP-INR (Close: 83.87): Prices have support at 83 and resistance at 84.20.
JPY-INR (Close: 57.64): Prices have support at 57 and resistance at 58.
Pivot table
| |
NSE Levels |
| Forex |
R3 |
R2 |
R1 |
Pivot |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
| USD-INR |
54.2050 |
53.8425 |
53.8075 |
53.4450 |
53.4100 |
53.0475 |
53.0125 |
| EUR-INR |
73.0450 |
72.8825 |
72.6175 |
72.4550 |
72.1900 |
72.0275 |
71.7625 |
| JPY-INR |
58.4000 |
58.0425 |
57.9675 |
57.6100 |
57.5350 |
57.1775 |
57.1025 |
| GBP-INR |
85.5075 |
84.8275 |
84.7000 |
84.0200 |
83.8925 |
83.2125 |
83.0850 |
| EUR-USD |
1.3678 |
1.3669 |
1.3523 |
1.3514 |
1.3368 |
1.3359 |
1.3213 |
| GBP-USD |
1.5928 |
1.5850 |
1.5838 |
1.5760 |
1.5748 |
1.5670 |
1.5658 |
| USD-JPY |
93.5200 |
93.3500 |
92.5500 |
92.3800 |
91.5800 |
91.4100 |
90.6100 |
Important data to watch
| Date |
Country / Currency |
Event |
IST |
Actual |
Cons. |
Previous |
| 4-Feb |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
1:30pm |
132.1K |
150.0K |
-59.1K |
| EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
3:00pm |
-3.9 |
-2.2 |
-7.0 |
| USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
8:30pm |
1.8% |
2.3% |
0.0% |
| 5-Feb |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
3:30pm |
|
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
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