India's economy is expected to grow at a faster than expected pace in the current fiscal year, as a slew of emergency stimulus measures taken by the Government at the height of the global financial turmoil helped it fight off the worst global recession in decades.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would probably expand by 7.2% in the year ending March 2010, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) said on Monday. The Indian economy had grown by 6.7% in the previous fiscal year.
The latest CSO projection is higher than the consensus estimates of a 7% GDP growth.
Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its GDP growth estimate for FY10 to 7.5% from 6.5%, and most Indian policymakers, including Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, have said they expect the Indian economy to grow by 7.5%.
The Finance Ministry pegged FY10 GDP growth at 7.75% in the mid-term economic review.
The GDP at factor cost at constant prices (2004-05) is likely to attain a level of Rs44,53,064 crores in FY10, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the financial year 2008-09 of Rs41,54,973 crores, released on January 29, 2010.
The estimated growth rate of 7.2% in GDP during 2009-10 has been due to the growth rates of over 5% in the sectors of ‘Mining & Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas and Water supply’, ‘Construction’, 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communications', 'Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services', and 'Community, Social and Personal Services'.
The bad news is largely restricted to the Agriculture sector, which is likely to take a hit in its overall output due to below average rains during the crucial southwest monsoon season this year. The ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector is likely to show a decline of 0.2% in its GDP during 2009-10 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 1.6%, the CSO said today.
The estimated growth in GDP for Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communications sectors during 2009-10 is placed at 8.3%. The sector, 'Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services', is expected to show a growth rate of 9.9% during 2009-10.
The growth rate of 'Community, Social and Personal Services' during 2009-10 is estimated to be 8.2%.
STATEMENT 3: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity
(At 2004-05 prices)
Rs. Crore
| Industry |
2007-08 |
2008-09 (QE) |
2009-10 (AE) |
Percentage change over previous year 2008-09 2009-10 |
| 1. agriculture, forestry & fishing |
640,315 |
650,461 |
649,370 |
1.6 |
-0.2 |
| 2. mining & quarrying |
97,201 |
98,745 |
107,334 |
1.6 |
8.7 |
| 3. manufacturing |
629,446 |
649,635 |
707,512 |
3.2 |
8.9 |
| 4. electricity, gas & water supply |
78,776 |
81,866 |
88,590 |
3.9 |
8.2 |
| 5. construction |
314,298 |
332,782 |
354,514 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
| 6. trade, hotels, transport and communication |
1,008,603 |
1,084,764 |
1,174,320 |
7.6 |
8.3 |
| 7. financing, insurance, real estate & business services |
637,223 |
701,338 |
770,443 |
10.1 |
9.9 |
| 8. community, social & personal services |
487,595 |
555,382 |
600,980 |
13.9 |
8.2 |
| 9. GDP at factor cost |
3,893,457 |
4,154,973 |
4,453,064 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2009-10 is likely to attain a level of Rs33,540 compared to the Quick Estimate of Rs31,821 for the year 2008-09. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.4% during 2009-10, as against the previous year's estimate of 5%.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at Rs27,64,261 crores in 2009-10 as against Rs26,55,533 crores in 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at 58%.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at Rs5,54,000 crores in 2009-10 as against Rs5,12,126 crores in 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at 11.6%.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at Rs15,48,100 crores in 2009-10 as against Rs.14,71,161 crores in 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at constant prices (2004-05) is estimated at 32.5%.