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India Infoline Weekly Newsletter - October 28, 2011

India Infoline News Service / 17:41 , Oct 28, 2011

More gains could follow with the Nifty having crossed 5350. It could go as high as 5600 if we don’t get any fresh bad news. It is likely to get good support around 5000 on the way down.

RBI hikes repo rate by 25 bps

on Tuesday raised its key lending rate by another quarter percentage point as it continues its fight against stubborn inflation while equally being concerned about slowdown in the Indian economy. The central bank today hiked the repurchase rate, or repo rate (at which it lends to banks) by 25 basis points (bps) to 8.50%. The reverse repo rate (at which the RBI absorbs money from banks) will now stand at 7.50%. The Marginal Standing Facility Rate will now be at 9.50%. The Bank Rate has been retained at 6%t. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks has been left unchanged at 6% of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL). The policy actions and the guidance that is given are expected to continue to anchor medium-term inflation expectations on the basis of a credible commitment to low and stable inflation, the RBI said in a statement. They will also reinforce the emerging trajectory of inflation, which is expected to begin to decline in December 2011, it said. The policy action will also contribute to stimulating investment activity, the central bank said. The projected inflation trajectory indicates that it will begin falling in December 2011, and then continue down a steady path to 7% by March 2012, the RBI said today. Inflation is expected to moderate further in the first half of FY13, the RBI said. This reflects a combination of commodity price movements and the cumulative impact of monetary tightening, it said. "Further, moderating inflation rates are likely to impact expectations favourably. These expected outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run," the central bank said. With this in mind, notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November, the likelihood of a rate action in the December mid-quarter review is relatively low, the RBI said.

Beyond that, if the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be warranted, the RBI said. However, as always, actions will depend on evolving macroeconomic conditions, it added. It must be emphasised, however, that several factors - structural imbalances in agriculture, infrastructure capacity bottlenecks, distorted administered prices of several key commodities and the pace of fiscal consolidation - combine to keep medium-term inflation risks in the economy high, the RBI said. These risks can only be mitigated by concerted policy actions on several fronts, the central bank said. In the absence of progress on these, over the medium term, the monetary policy stance will have to take into account the risks of inflation surging in response to even a moderate growth recovery, it said.

RBI announces Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

D. Subbarao statement on Q2 FY12 policy review

FM sees more comfortable inflation situation soon

RBI Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments for Q2 FY12

RBI deregulates Savings Bank Deposit Rate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect. It is felt that the time is appropriate to move forward and complete the process of deregulation of rupee interest rates, the central bank said in a statement. Banks are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions:

First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs. 1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within this limit.

Second, for savings bank deposits over Rs. 1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However, there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit.

The operational guidelines in this regard will be issued separately.

As indicated in the Second Quarter Review of November 2010, the RBI prepared a discussion paper on ‘Deregulation of Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate’, which was posted on its website in April 2011, for public comments/suggestions.

The discussion paper spelt out both the pros and cons of deregulating the savings bank deposit interest rate.

The discussion paper evoked wide-ranging responses from a cross-section of stakeholders, ranging from the suggestion that savings bank deposit interest rate should not be deregulated at all to the suggestion that it should be deregulated completely.

The RBI has examined the suggestions received and weighed the pros and cons of deregulation of the savings bank deposit interest rate.

Savings interest rate deregulation to benefit customers: CRISIL

Yes Bank hikes savings deposit rate by 200 bps to 6.0%

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