The provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for April 2012 on point-to-point basis is 10.36% compared to 9.38% (final) for March 2012.
The corresponding inflation rates for Rural and Urban areas are and 9.86% and 11.10%, respectively. Inflation rates (final) for Rural and Urban areas for March 2012 stood at 8.70% and 10.30%, respectively.
All India provisional General (all groups) CPI numbers of April 2012 for rural, urban and combined stood at 118.1, 116.1 and 117.2 respectively.
Provisional annual inflation rates of April 2012 for Rural, Urban and Combined in respect of ‘Food & Beverages’ stood at 9.87%, 10.69% and 10.18% respectively.
Srikant Kumar Jena, Minister of State (Independent charge), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday announced the release of the monthly provisional Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Base 2010=100 along with annual inflation rates for April 2012, compiled by the Central Statistics Office.
The CSO releases CPI on base 2010=100 for all-India and States/UTs separately for Rural, Urban and Combined every month with effect from January 2011.
Vegetable prices witnessed the biggest increase in April on a year-on-year basis, up 24.5%, followed by Edible Oils - 17.63% and Milk Products - 14.94%.
Prices of Egg, fish & meat surged by 9.95% in April, while that of Non-alcoholic Beverages climbed by 9.5%.
Among other items, prices of Cereals rose by 3.94% in April this year over April 2011. Sugar saw a marginal rise of 4.32% while Pulses prices were up by 6.03%.
Prices of Fuel & Light, and Clothing, Bedding and Footwear segments also remained in the double-digits.
Core CPI (ex-food, fuel) also remains elevated at 10.6% y-o-y in April versus 10.8% in March, due to double-digit inflation in housing and clothing items, and a high single-digit inflation rate in miscellaneous services.
Elevated CPI inflation, despite lower WPI inflation, reflects the higher weight of food in the CPI basket and also the sticky nature of consumer prices, according to Sonal Varma, Economist at Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.
"We expect food inflation to remain elevated due to a likely rise in minimum support prices for food crops and risk of a below-normal monsoon. This should keep CPI inflation sticky around current levels," says Varma.
In terms of policy response, while core WPI inflation has moderated and growth continues to weaken, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cannot ignore rising food inflation since it affects households’ inflation expectations.
In addition, a fuel price hike is impending and the rupee has weakened sharply. "As such, we expect the RBI to keep its repo rate unchanged in June," says Varma.