A new study assessing the availability and stability of food supplies in 196 countries has rated the food security of India at ‘high risk,’ whilst Somalia, DR Congo and countries in the drought stricken Horn of Africa are topping the global ranking.
The Food Security Risk Index (FSRI), released by risk analysis and mapping company Maplecroft, is based on the key elements of food security as laid out by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It is calculated using 12 indicators, measuring the availability, access and stability of food supplies across all countries, as well as the nutritional and health status of populations.
According to the FSRI, a number of critical factors have combined to intensify the current food crisis affecting countries in the Horn of Africa, including Somalia (ranked joint 1st), Eritrea (4), Ethiopia (7) and Djibouti (14).
These countries, along with much of Sub-Saharan Africa, are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Maplecroft states that contributing factors for food insecurity include: a low capacity to combat the effects of extreme weather events such as drought; high rates of poverty; and failing infrastructures, which undermine both food production and emergency food distribution capacity. Conflict is also a major driver of food insecurity with the on-going violence in eastern DR Congo being largely responsible for its poor ranking in the index.
However, according to Maplecroft’s results, it is not just poor underdeveloped nations that are at risk. India, one of the world’s emerging powers, is ranked 51st in the FSRI and is categorised as ‘high risk.’
Although India has benefited from rapid and substantial economic growth over the past decade, the country remains blighted by poverty and stark income inequalities. According to a 2011 World Food Programme report on India, approximately 25% of the world’s hungry poor live in the country and around 43% of children under five years old suffer from malnutrition.
While India produces enough food for domestic consumption, the food security situation within India is worsened by significant overpopulation, environmental degradation, political violence and endemic corruption.
Despite a decline in cereal prices between March and May 2011, many people with low incomes remain food insecure due to increasing prices of consumer food commodities. However, the National Food Security Bill, which was tabled in the parliamentary session beginning 1 August 2011, will, if enacted, entitle families living below the poverty line to subsidised food grain. It is envisaged that the new law will also be used to engender reforms of the public distribution system to enable improved access to food for particularly vulnerable people.
Regional neighbours of India are also rated as ‘high risk’ with Pakistan ranked 22 and Bangladesh 27, whilst its counterparts in the BRICs are categorised as ‘medium risk’ countries with China ranked 125, Brazil 129 and Russia 135.
It is nevertheless the Horn of Africa where the world’s attention is currently focused. The worst drought in the region in 60 years has seen the rains fail for two consecutive seasons leading to crop failures and livestock deaths. By the end of August 2011, in southern Somalia alone, more than 29,000 children under the age of five have died over the course of the current crisis. The total number of people requiring food assistance in eastern Africa is estimated at 17.5 million, over 12 million of whom are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
Somalia’s ranking as 1st in the FSRI relates to a number of issues. The country has been ravaged by two decades of conflict and political turmoil resulting in an ineffective government and poor infrastructure. The human and economic toll of the conflict has been profound, causing large-scale loss of life, displacement, disruption of trade and the destruction of transportation networks, which has impeded efforts to deliver humanitarian aid.
Inflationary pressures on the cost of staple cereals have also rendered many Somalis acutely vulnerable. Maize prices in Mogadishu were 100% higher in June 2011 than in June 2010, and the price of sorghum in Somalia rose by 180% compared with 2010 prices.
In a further development, several big Indian agribusinesses have signalled their intent to acquire, or lease huge swathes of land in some of the highest risk countries in East Africa, including Ethiopia (7), Tanzania (29) and Uganda (35). In the past week, a delegation of over 30 Indian investors visited the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, aiming to expand India's foothold in the agricultural sector in the country. One Indian agro-conglomerate has unveiled plans to invest US$500 million in cultivating 370,000 hectares of Ethiopian land for palm oil, cereals and sugarcane. The potential land concessions could have profound implications for the food security of the populations of both India and East Africa.
However, large-scale land acquisitions in developing countries nonetheless present opportunities as well as risks. Increased investment in countries’ agricultural industries can serve to benefit the rural poor by generating employment in the sector, by developing rural infrastructure, as well as by contributing to poverty reduction.
“Responsible investment can lead to development and play an important role in expanding access to sufficient and stable food supplies,” added Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst. “The transfer of technological advances and expertise in agronomy may also help to improve the capacity of the agricultural systems of developing countries to increase production of food crops for both domestic consumption and export markets.”
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