Morgan Stanley on Monday scaled back India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.3% versus an earlier estimate of 6.9%. The US investment bank also cut the 2013 GDP forecast to 6.8% from an earlier projection of 7.5%.
A bad growth mix, that is a consequence of high national deficit, an expansionary policy of supporting consumption and slowing private investments, has reached its limits, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research update on India.
Morgan Stanley expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to lower repo rate by an additional 100 bps by March 2013, after a 50 bps cut in April.
Falling rupee and high inflation would make it difficult for India to achieve 7.5% economic growth during the current financial year, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said on Sunday.
"The Finance Ministry has said they are hoping for a 7.5% growth this year. That is going to be tough but not impossible," Ahluwalia said.
While the last quarter of FY12 did not show robustness, it remains to be seen how growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal will fare, he said.
"It is going to be a slow transition," Ahluwalia said, adding that India needs to get out of the decelerating growth phase, and return to high growth path.
The global financial crisis of 2008 had dragged down India's GDP growth rate to 6.7% in FY09. India has projected a growth rate of 7.6% in FY13, up from the 6.9% estimated for the previous fiscal year.