The results of the 12th round of Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in June shows overall GDP growth rate for 2010-11 at 8.4%, as against 8.2% reported in the previous survey. The sectoral growth rate forecast for the agriculture sector was revised marginally upwards from 4% to 4.1%. For the services sector also the assessment was revised marginally upwards from 9% to 9.1%. For industry, the forecast remained unchanged at 9%.
The 50th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI conducted during April-June 2010, based on a sample of 1,092 companies, suggested a moderate slowdown in the index, both for the assessment quarter (April-June 2010) as well as expectations for the July-September 2010 quarter.
However, both indices (assessment about the current quarter and expectations about the next quarter) remained in the growth terrain (above 100, which separates contraction from expansion). Most of the parameters of the survey indicate buoyancy in business environment, the RBI said.
Various forward looking surveys conducted in the recent period suggest an overall improvement in business sentiment, as also the possibility of further acceleration of growth in FY11, the central bank said. The Professional Forecasters’ Survey of the RBI also shows upward revision in the median growth projections for FY11.
With stronger growth outlook, high generalised inflation has emerged as the key macroeconomic concern, the RBI said. The anti-inflationary monetary policy measures taken so far, coupled with an improved supply position that may result from better performance of kharif relative to last year, could be expected to help in arresting inflation by firmly anchoring inflationary expectations in the coming months, it said.