The rainfall activity was below normal over all the regions, except East and Northeast India, where it was above normal by 57% from long period average (LPA) during the week ended 27th June).
“There was a hiatus in the advance of the monsoon mainly due to northward shift of the heat trough towards the foothills of Himalayas and non-formation of any strong weather system in Bay of Bengal,” the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement on June 29.
Active to vigorous monsoon conditions prevailed over East and Northeast India on many days of the week (21 -27 June) with heavy to very heavy falls over northeastern states and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess in 06, normal in 04, deficient in 13 and scanty in 13 sub-divisions during the week.
In area-wise distribution, 28% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 72% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.
For the country as a whole, seasonal rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far (upto 27th June) been 23% below the LPA. The cumulative seasonal rainfall was below normal over all the regions except East and Northeast India, where it was above normal by 04 % from LPA.
Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 02, normal over 10, deficient in 12 and scanty in12 sub-divisions. In area-wise distribution, 26% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 64% area received efficient/scanty rainfall.
Forecast for next one week (30 June – 06 July)
Rainfall would occur at many places along the west coast and northeastern states throughout the week.
During this week, rainfall activity would increase over east and adjoining north peninsular India where rain/thundershowers would occur at many places.
Rainfall would also occur at a few places over south interior peninsula.
Rainfall would occur at few places over central India during first half of the week with increase in the second half.
Isolated rainfall would occur over northwest India during first half of the week which will increase considerably in the second half.
Forecast for advance of monsoon during next week
Analysis of current meteorological conditions indicate increase in rainfall activity over East, Central and also over Northwest India due to development of seasonal east-west trough with embedded upper air cyclonic circulation, the IMD said. Conditions would thus become favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of central India and Northwest India mainly during second half of the week, it added.