Things went along expected lines on Monday. While stocks got pummeled initially in the wake of unfavourable outcome of elections in France and Greece, the market rebounded in the afternoon after the Finance Minister deferred the implementation of the proposed GAAR by a year. Pranab Mukherjee has also rolled back a few other seemingly unpopular measures. The rupee, which took a fresh tumble manage to rally 1%.
What is even more heartening is that markets in Europe and the US managed to bounce back after the initial knee-jerk fall. But, the Greek stock benchmark sank 7% following a hung election verdict. Greece is perhaps more of a problem than France. So, brace for some fresh uncertainty in the eurozone in the near term.
We expect a flat to mildly positive start as most Asian markets are trading in the green territory. The direction during the rest of the session will hinge on domestic corporate results and trend in global markets. Watch out for IIP data later in the week. FII flows are the major cause for concern at the moment. Some material progress on reforms could provide a kicker here.
Monday's market moves led to the formation of a bullish piercing line on candlestick chart, with the NSE Nifty closing near 200-DMA of 5120. The Nifty needs to cement its position above 5120 for at least three trading sessions in order to negate the short term downtrend.
IT shares will be in focus after Cognizant scaled back its CY12 dollar revenue growth estimate. Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC and Kotak Mahindra Bank are among the index companies announcing their Q4 results today. Meanwhile, the debate on the Finance Bill could continue in parliament.
RIL may remain subdued amid the continued standoff with the Oil Ministry over the KG-D6 issues. Crude oil should also be watched closely over the next few days to see if it cracks further amid increasing signs of slowdown across the globe. SKS Microfinance will be in the spotlight after reporting a loss for the January-March quarter.
Key Results Today: Asian Paints, Bajaj Hindusthan, Ceat, Central Bank of India, CESC, Dena Bank, Emami, Federal Mogul, GIC Housing, Glenmark Pharma, Hindalco Industries, IDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Oriental Hotels, Puravankara Projects, Shriram Transport Finance, Tata Coffee, UCAL Fuel and Whirlpool.
Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs 6.3bn in the cash segment on Monday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 2.73bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
The FIIs were net sellers of Rs 4.35bn in the F&O segment on Monday, according to the provisional NSE data.
The foreign funds were net buyers of Rs 5.12bn in the cash segment on Friday and the Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs 2.03bn on the same day, according to the SEBI figures.
Global Data Watch today: Germany Wholesale Price Index (Apr), Australia Trade Balance (Mar), Germany Industrial Production (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Apr), US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), US Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser speech, US Fed’s Fisher speech, UK BRC Shop Price Index (Apr).