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September auto update: Strength in cars; UVs decline

Prayesh Jain/ Mumbai 10:49 , Oct 03, 2013

Amidst the current slowdown, we were expecting two-wheelers to see relative strength given the higher proportion of rural sales and lower ticket size.

During September 2013, passenger car volumes saw a relatively better performance when compared with recent past. Market leader Maruti reported a 14.5% yoy growth in domestic car volumes driven by strong growth in compact and super compact segments. However, UV segment continued to see weakness with Maruti reporting 63.2% yoy fall and M&M registering a 20.5% yoy decline. On a sequential basis, Maruti saw 18.9% growth in domestic volumes while M&M saw 15.4% mom rise, indicating built up of inventories for the ensuing festive season. In terms of exports, Maruti reported its highest volumes since December 2011. For M&M though, exports were weak with a 11.8% yoy fall.
 
For H1 FY14, Maruti saw 3% growth in volumes with exports growing at 3.9% and domestic sales growing at 2.9%. 34.6% yoy decline in UVs and 20.6% yoy decline in Vans was more than offset by a 29.8% surge in Super compact and 10.4% growth in mini segment. M&M on the other hand saw a 9.7% decline in its total automotive sales in H1 FY14. Weakness was seen all segments except 4W pickups which saw a 2.9% rise in sales. 14.5% slump in UV sales had the largest impact.
 
Two-wheelers: strength across the board
Amidst the current slowdown, we were expecting two-wheelers to see relative strength given the higher proportion of rural sales and lower ticket size. With better than normal monsoons, higher MSPs and benefits continuing to flow from the government H2 FY14 is expected to be better than H1 FY14. Early signs of this are visible with most players reporting strong sales in the month of September 2013. HMSI and TVS Motors saw better than street expectations volumes, while Hero Motocorp reported in line with estimate performance. Honda continues to gain market share in the domestic market. Export volumes of TVS Motors were also strong.
 
In terms of H1 FY14, both Hero Motocorp and TVS Motors saw flat total sales. For TVS Motors decline of 4% in domestic volumes was offset by 25.7% surge in exports.
 
Bajaj Auto, in line with other two-wheeler players, reported better than estimated performance. However, it continued to report a fall in domestic market albeit just 2.6% yoy for the month of September. Export growth was healthy at 10.2% yoy. Amongst segments, motorcycles saw a 2.7% yoy rise while 3-wheelers saw a 2% yoy fall. For H1 FY14, motorcycle volumes are down 10.5%, while 3-wheeler volumes are higher by 6.5%.
 
Tractors: robust trend continues
M&M saw tractor volume growth of 37.1% yoy in domestic market (sixth consecutive month of yoy growth). The volumes were highest since June 2013. However, exports fell 39.3% yoy. For H1 FY14, M&M saw a growth of 24.4% in domestic sales partially offset by 13.9% yoy decline in exports.
 
3-Ws: Improved performance
TVS motors continued the healthy sales in 3-Ws and at 7,800 units, it saw a jump of 55.8% on a yoy basis. This growth was primarily led by export sales, which at 6,566 units were higher 125% yoy. On the domestic front, while M&M saw a 4% growth, TVS reported sales decline.
 
CVs continue to disappoint
CV sales continue to be abysmal with Tata Motors reporting 32% yoy fall and Ashok Leyland registering 31.9% yoy fall. For Tata Motors M&HCV volumes fell 42.3% yoy and LCV sales plummeted 27.2% (biggest fall since December 2008). For Ashok Leyland M&HCV volumes fell 37.9% while its SCV segment saw a fall of 16.8% yoy. Tata Motors continued to see a steep fall across all its segments.
 
For H1 FY14, Tata Motors has seen a 16.6% yoy fall in domestic CV sales and a 25.7% yoy dive in total sales. During the same period, Ashok Leyland has seen a 21.8% fall in its total CV volumes.
 
September 2013 auto volume data

 

Sep-13

Sep-12

yoy (%)

Aug-13

mom (%)

YTD FY14

YTD FY13

yoy (%)

Hero Motocorp
Total

468,670

404,787

15.8

459,996

1.9

2,975,493

2,975,097

0.0

                 
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles

323,879

315,314

2.7

278,583

16.3

1,709,531

1,911,147

(10.5)

3-wheeler

43,936

44,838

(2.0)

33,605

30.7

231,164

217,032

6.5

Total

367,815

360,152

2.1

312,188

17.8

1,940,695

2,128,179

(8.8)

of which exports

146,847

133,222

10.2

144,160

1.9

763,593

805,930

(5.3)

Domestic

220,968

226,930

(2.6)

168,028

31.5

1,177,102

1,322,249

(11.0)

                 
TVS Motors
Motorcycles

83,043

63,832

30.1

61,313

35.4

395,712

364,234

8.6

Scooters

43,201

40,055

7.9

36,478

18.4

218,882

231,975

(5.6)

Mopeds

63,365

61,205

3.5

50,678

25.0

347,354

387,658

(10.4)

3-wheeler

7,800

5,005

55.8

7,063

10.4

39,163

21,292

83.9

Exports

27,577

18,818

46.5

27,425

0.6

151,725

120,733

25.7

Total

197,409

170,097

16.1

155,532

26.9

1,001,111

1,005,159

(0.4)

Domestic

169,832

151,279

12.3

128,107

32.6

849,386

884,426

(4.0)

                 
HMSI
Motorcycles

163,229

113,379

44.0

156,629

4.2

802,655

607,252

32.2

Scooters

165,736

129,562

27.9

152,303

8.8

863,099

744,786

15.9

Total

328,965

242,941

35.4

308,932

6.5

1,665,754

1,352,038

23.2

                 
Maruti
A: Mini

41,061

39,150

4.9

32,019

28.2

204,335

185,023

10.4

A: Compact

20,828

17,813

16.9

17,409

19.6

111,797

112,617

(0.7)

A: Super Compact

16,708

11,694

42.9

13,723

21.8

94,939

73,150

29.8

A: Midsize

378

288

31.3

348

8.6

2,466

2,861

(13.8)

A: Executive

-

12

(100.0)

-

-

-

35

(100.0)

Total Pass cars

78,975

68,957

14.5

63,499

24.4

413,537

373,686

10.7

Uvs

2,657

7,224

(63.2)

4,563

(41.8)

26,404

40,366

(34.6)

Vans

8,767

12,620

(30.5)

7,956

10.2

46,967

59,166

(20.6)

Total Domestic

90,399

88,801

1.8

76,018

18.9

486,908

473,218

2.9

Exports

14,565

5,187

180.8

11,305

28.8

55,112

53,054

3.9

Total volumes

104,964

93,988

11.7

87,323

20.2

542,020

526,272

3.0

                 
M&M
Passenger Uvs + Verito

18,916

23,808

(20.5)

15,821

19.6

110,491

129,154

(14.5)

4W pick ups

14,709

14,417

2.0

13,718

7.2

85,190

82,783

2.9

3W

6,403

6,048

5.9

5,149

24.4

28,409

31,016

(8.4)

Total M&M Auto

40,028

44,273

(9.6)

34,688

15.4

224,090

242,953

(7.8)

MNAL

546

990

(44.8)

471

15.9

4,346

6,123

(29.0)

Total Auto (domestic)

40,574

45,263

(10.4)

35,159

15.4

228,436

249,076

(8.3)

Exports

2,715

3,079

(11.8)

2,738

(0.8)

12,830

18,190

(29.5)

Total Auto (A)

43,289

48,342

(10.5)

37,897

14.2

241,266

267,266

(9.7)

                 
Tractors
Domestic

25,922

18,908

37.1

13,543

91.4

128,626

103,358

24.4

Exports

715

1,177

(39.3)

615

16.3

5,215

6,060

(13.9)

Total (B)

26,637

20,085

32.6

14,158

88.1

133,841

109,418

22.3

                 
Total (A+B)

69,926

68,427

2.2

52,055

34.3

375,107

376,684

(0.4)

                 
Tata Motors
M&HCV

8,815

15,287

(42.3)

8,249

6.9

58,077

77,697

(25.3)

LCV

24,304

33,393

(27.2)

24,904

(2.4)

151,791

173,810

(12.7)

Utility

3,113

4,519

(31.1)

2,803

11.1

15,229

25,019

(39.1)

Cars

9,766

17,133

(43.0)

8,761

11.5

54,546

105,589

(48.3)

Total domestic

45,998

70,332

(34.6)

44,717

2.9

279,643

382,115

(26.8)

Total exports

4,429

5,441

(18.6)

4,894

(9.5)

25,035

27,749

(9.8)

Total

50,427

75,773

(33.4)

49,611

1.6

304,678

409,864

(25.7)

                 
Ashok Leyland
CVs (excl Dost)

4,715

7,596

(37.9)

4,939

(4.5)

30,790

41,414

(25.7)

SCV (DOST)

2,517

3,027

(16.8)

2,200

14.4

14,041

15,913

(11.8)

Total

7,232

10,623

(31.9)

7,139

1.3

44,831

57,327

(21.8)

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

 



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