|
|
| India Infoline Research Team / 20:42 , May 09, 2012 |
|
Monsoon, which promises to be good, may be a while away. For now dark clouds are hovering over the Mumbai skyline this morning. The markets of course are confronting their own set of headwinds – both .. |
|
“A cloud cannot cast a shadow unless the sun is shining beyond it”
– Anonymous.
Monsoon, which promises to be good, may be a while away. For now dark clouds are hovering over the Mumbai skyline this morning. The markets of course are confronting their own set of headwinds – both domestic as well as foreign. The deferment of GAAR by a year was expected to be a short-term catalyst to support the market mood. However, stocks, currency, bonds or commodities – everything was in the red. The only safe haven seems to be US dollar (despite a sluggish economic recovery).
The risk-off trade is likely to persist for a while before there is any material relief. Markets may gradually adjust to external shocks (Greece exiting euro, or more trouble for Spain). On the domestic front, the RBI has hinted that it has limited room to perk up the mood. So, it is pretty clear that the Government must move quickly to give a much-needed fillip to the economy. We expect another weak start owing to a worldwide depression in the market. There might be an intraday turnaround but don’t get trapped in it as the bias remains negative for now.
Q1 CY12 result preview:
Ranbaxy – Revenues Rs33.5bn (+53.6% yoy), PAT Rs7.1bn (+133% yoy).
| ADR/GDR |
|
|
|
| |
Latest (US$) |
Price % chg |
% Prem/Disc |
| Dr. Reddys |
32.3 |
(0.3) |
0.4 |
| HDFC Bk |
31.8 |
(3.2) |
9.2 |
| ICICI Bk |
30.7 |
(3.0) |
(1.7) |
| ITC |
4.3 |
(4.3) |
0.2 |
| Infosys |
45.0 |
0.4 |
(0.1) |
| Ranbaxy |
9.4 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
| Reliance |
26.4 |
(1.3) |
(1.0) |
| Wipro |
9.2 |
(0.7) |
20.6 |
| SBI |
74.0 |
(1.3) |
0.6 |
| Tata Motors |
27.9 |
(3.1) |
(0.1) |
| Sterlite |
7.4 |
(4.4) |
(0.6) |
| L&T |
22.0 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
| Indian market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Sensex |
16,546 |
(2.2) |
(7.2) |
7.1 |
| Nifty |
5,000 |
(1.7) |
(7.6) |
8.1 |
| BSE 100 |
2,041 |
(2.1) |
(6.8) |
10.3 |
| BSE 200 |
6,406 |
(2.0) |
(6.4) |
10.9 |
| CNX Midcap |
7,133 |
(1.1) |
(5.3) |
16.7 |
| BSE Smallcap |
6,551 |
(0.9) |
(5.0) |
18.0 |
| Developed market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Dow Jones |
12,932 |
(0.6) |
0.3 |
5.8 |
| Nasdaq |
2,946 |
(0.4) |
0.7 |
13.1 |
| S&P 500 |
1,364 |
(0.4) |
0.9 |
8.4 |
| FTSE |
5,555 |
(1.8) |
(5.8) |
(0.3) |
| CAC |
3,125 |
(2.8) |
(8.8) |
(1.1) |
| DAX |
6,445 |
(1.9) |
(5.1) |
9.3 |
| Hang Seng* |
20,341 |
(0.7) |
(3.2) |
10.3 |
| Nikkei* |
9,058 |
(1.4) |
0.6 |
7.1 |
| S&P/ASX200* |
4,282 |
(0.8) |
(0.0) |
5.5 |
| * Markets are open |
|
|
|
|
| Emerging market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Shanghai Comp |
2,427 |
(0.9) |
3.3 |
10.3 |
| Brazil Bovespa |
60,365 |
(1.4) |
(7.9) |
6.4 |
| Mexico Bolsa |
39,215 |
(2.1) |
2.5 |
5.8 |
| Kospi* |
1,955 |
(0.6) |
(3.0) |
7.1 |
| Micex |
1,384 |
(0.1) |
(10.2) |
(1.3) |
| Taiwan* |
7,508 |
(0.5) |
(5.1) |
6.2 |
| Straits* |
2,913 |
(0.7) |
(2.3) |
10.1 |
| * Markets are open |
|
|
|
|
| Institutional activity |
|
| (Rs cr) |
Cash |
F&O |
MTD |
YTD |
| FIIs |
(593) |
159 |
255 |
43,724 |
| MFs |
- |
- |
(474) |
(6,431) |
| FIIs Prov. |
(399) |
|
|
|
| MFs Prov. |
258 |
|
|
|
| Commodities |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Crude (US$/bbl) |
96.6 |
(0.4) |
(3.2) |
(2.2) |
| Gold (US$/oz) |
1,597 |
(0.5) |
(7.7) |
2.1 |
| Copper (US$/mt) |
8,193 |
(0.7) |
(4.2) |
7.9 |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) |
2,016 |
(0.6) |
(8.9) |
1.1 |
| Zinc (US$/mt) |
1,972 |
(1.0) |
(6.1) |
7.9 |
| Advance/Decline stocks |
|
|
|
|
| (Nos) |
A |
B |
S |
Total |
| Adv |
40 |
772 |
1,292 |
1,440 |
| Dec |
163 |
1,242 |
1,971 |
1,270 |
| Unch |
1 |
89 |
174 |
136 |
| A/D ratio (x)* |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
| *A/D excluding Unch |
|
|
|
|
| Trade value |
|
|
| (Rs cr) |
|
% chg |
| Cash NSE |
10,900 |
(6.7) |
| Cash BSE |
2,078 |
2.6 |
| Total Cash |
12,978 |
(5.3) |
| Delivery (%) |
37.2 |
- |
| Derivatives |
127,714 |
(6.2) |
| Currency |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Rs/US$ |
53.15 |
0.4 |
(7.5) |
(0.2) |
| Rs/EUR |
69.24 |
0.4 |
(5.8) |
(0.7) |
| US$/GBP |
1.61 |
(0.1) |
2.0 |
3.8 |
| US$/EUR |
1.30 |
(0.2) |
(2.3) |
0.1 |
| Yen/US$ |
79.88 |
0.0 |
(2.8) |
(3.7) |
| Bond market |
|
|
| |
Last Close (%) |
Bps chg |
| 10yr Gsec |
8.58 |
(0.08) |
| Call rate |
8.30 |
(0.10) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|