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| India Infoline Research Team / 08:45 , Feb 15, 2010 |
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The market remains in a precarious situation. It is time to keep your heart, mind, eyes and ears open before taking a decision. The extended weekend brought mixed news. The industrial output data for December surpassed all optimistic estimates. China surprised by raising the reserve ratio for banks. Data also showed that Eurozone growth came to a halt in the last quarter of 2009. Among the other bad news was of course the blast in Pune just as India and Pakistan get ready to resume bilateral dialogue. |
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Sometimes the heart sees what is invisible to the eye
The market remains in a precarious situation. It is time to keep your heart, mind, eyes and ears open before taking a decision. The extended weekend brought mixed news. The industrial output data for December surpassed all optimistic estimates. China surprised by raising the reserve ratio for banks. Data also showed that Eurozone growth came to a halt in the last quarter of 2009. Among the other bad news was of course the blast in Pune just as India and Pakistan get ready to resume bilateral dialogue.
We expect a subdued start for Indian markets with a likelihood of another short-covering-led bounce. Do not get carried away by any sudden spurt if any as the upside too could get capped sooner than later.
In the near term, the Nifty could rise to the 5000 levels again; and perhaps cross 5000 before the Budget. On the whole, the market will remain volatile, largely owing to external factors and concerns over FII outflows. Outcome of the Budget will be another factor to determine near-term direction.
ADR/GDR
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Latest (US$)
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Price % chg
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% Prem/Disc
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Dr. Reddys
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23.6
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0.0
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0.6
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HDFC Bk
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115.8
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(0.5)
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12.3
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ICICI Bk
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35.4
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(0.1)
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(0.3)
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ITC
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4.8
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0.2
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(9.5)
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Infosys
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54.0
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(0.4)
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0.6
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Satyam
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5.1
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0.8
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19.7
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Ranbaxy
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8.9
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0.6
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(0.3)
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Reliance
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42.4
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(1.5)
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(2.9)
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Wipro
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20.5
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(0.0)
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45.6
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SBI
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82.4
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(0.7)
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(0.1)
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Tata Motors
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15.2
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0.5
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2.6
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Sterlite
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16.5
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(1.1)
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0.0
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L&T
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31.0
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0.2
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(0.5)
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Indian market
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% change
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Last close
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1 day
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3 mth
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YTD
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Sensex
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16,153
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1.4
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(3.3)
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(7.5)
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Nifty
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4,827
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1.5
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(2.5)
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(7.2)
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BSE 100
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2,048
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1.2
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(1.4)
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(6.1)
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BSE 200
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6,464
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1.2
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(0.5)
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(5.5)
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CNX Midcap
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7,278
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0.7
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3.2
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(2.1)
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BSE Smallcap
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8,303
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0.8
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12.3
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(0.7)
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Developed market
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% change
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Last close
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1 day
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3 mth
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YTD
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Dow Jones
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10,099
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(0.4)
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(1.7)
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(3.2)
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Nasdaq
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2,184
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0.3
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0.7
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(3.8)
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S&P 500
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1,076
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(0.3)
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(1.6)
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(3.6)
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FTSE
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5,142
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(0.4)
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(2.9)
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(5.0)
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CAC
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3,599
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(0.5)
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(5.4)
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(8.6)
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DAX
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5,500
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(0.1)
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(3.3)
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(7.7)
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Hang Seng*
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20,269
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(0.1)
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(10.1)
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(7.3)
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Nikkei*
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10,051
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(0.4)
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2.9
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(4.7)
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S&P/ASX200*
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4,541
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(0.5)
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(3.5)
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(6.8)
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* Markets are open
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Emerging market
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% change
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Last close
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1 day
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3 mth
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YTD
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Shanghai Comp
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3,018
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1.1
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(5.3)
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(7.9)
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Brazil Bovespa
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65,855
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(0.4)
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0.8
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(4.0)
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Mexico Bolsa
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31,006
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0.5
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0.0
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(3.5)
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Kospi*
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1,594
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(0.3)
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1.4
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(5.3)
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Micex
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1,305
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(1.8)
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(0.4)
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(4.8)
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Taiwan*
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7,442
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1.1
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(3.0)
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(9.1)
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Straits*
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2,759
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0.2
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1.2
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(4.8)
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* Markets are open
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Institutional activity
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(Rs cr)
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Cash
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F&O
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MTD
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YTD
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FIIs
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(24)
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1,077
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(10,055)
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(3,586)
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MFs
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267
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-
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344
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(1,259)
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FIIs Prov.
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212
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MFs Prov.
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61
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Commodities
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% change
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Last close
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1 day
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3 mth
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YTD
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Crude (US$/bbl)
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75.3
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1.0
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(2.8)
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(6.5)
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Gold (US$/oz)
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1,095
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2.2
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(2.2)
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(0.3)
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Copper (US$/mt)
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6,796
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(1.8)
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4.9
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(7.4)
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Aluminium (US$/mt)
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2,023
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(0.1)
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5.7
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(7.9)
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Zinc (US$/mt)
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2,169
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(0.7)
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2.1
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(14.3)
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Advance/Decline stocks
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(Nos)
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A
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B
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S
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Total
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Adv
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78
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731
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157
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1,314
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Dec
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124
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778
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219
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1,487
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Unch
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2
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53
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9
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87
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A/D ratio (x)*
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0.6
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0.9
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0.7
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0.9
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*A/D excluding Unch
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Trade value
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(Rs cr)
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% chg
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Cash NSE
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11,127
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(17.7)
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Cash BSE
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3,774
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(23.6)
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Total Cash
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14,901
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(19.3)
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Delivery (%)
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36.0
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-
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Derivatives
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73,750
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(9.2)
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Currency
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% change
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Last close
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1 day
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3 mth
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YTD
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Rs/US$
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46.50
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0.0
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(0.4)
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0.1
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Rs/EUR
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63.21
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(0.2)
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9.5
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5.4
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US$/GBP
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1.57
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(0.3)
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(6.9)
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(3.2)
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US$/EUR
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1.36
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(0.1)
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(9.1)
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(4.9)
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Yen/US$
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90.17
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0.2
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(1.2)
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3.2
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Bond market
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Last Close (%)
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Bps chg
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10yr Gsec
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7.87
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0.09
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Call rate
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3.40
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0.10
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