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| India Infoline Research Team / 08:37 , Sep 03, 2010 |
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While caution and optimism go hand in hand, they don’t seem to be traveling much far. Improved PMI data for the US and China has temporarily soothed frayed nerves but economic statistics have been inconsistent (not to mention GDP errors) as the world recovers from the ‘Great Recession’. We may continue to see intermittent bouts of declines and bounce backs for some time to come. |
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Indecision is the seedling of fear - Napoleon Hill
While caution and optimism go hand in hand, they don’t seem to be traveling much far. Improved PMI data for the US and China has temporarily soothed frayed nerves but economic statistics have been inconsistent (not to mention GDP errors) as the world recovers from the ‘Great Recession’. We may continue to see intermittent bouts of declines and bounce backs for some time to come.
We expect another day of sideways consolidation for India. The start will be higher but lackluster as global cues are indecisive. Individual stocks will continue to fly even as the main indices witness tepid movement.
Meanwhile, there are no major threats to India’s bright and beautiful story. The only worry is rich valuations, especially for large caps. At the same time opportunities abound outside the main indices.
We expect the out-performance of the small- and mid-cap indices to sustain a bit longer. US data on Thursday was mixed. Markets are looking forward to today’s non-farm payroll numbers to get a better sense of the ground reality in the US.
| ADR/GDR |
|
|
|
| |
Latest (US$) |
Price % chg |
% Prem/Disc |
| Dr. Reddys |
29.9 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
| HDFC Bk |
167.4 |
0.6 |
19.1 |
| ICICI Bk |
43.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
| ITC |
3.5 |
1.3 |
(0.2) |
| Infosys |
59.8 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
| Satyam |
4.7 |
2.2 |
33.2 |
| Ranbaxy |
10.9 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| Reliance |
40.3 |
(0.3) |
0.5 |
| Wipro |
13.1 |
(0.1) |
51.6 |
| SBI |
118.3 |
(1.7) |
0.1 |
| Tata Motors |
22.4 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
| Sterlite |
14.0 |
1.5 |
306.2 |
| L&T |
39.7 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Indian market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Sensex |
18,238 |
0.2 |
7.1 |
4.4 |
| Nifty |
5,486 |
0.3 |
7.4 |
5.5 |
| BSE 100 |
2,343 |
0.3 |
8.3 |
7.5 |
| BSE 200 |
7,423 |
0.4 |
8.9 |
8.5 |
| CNX Midcap |
8,861 |
0.9 |
12.9 |
19.2 |
| BSE Smallcap |
9,821 |
1.1 |
13.8 |
17.5 |
| Developed market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Dow Jones |
10,320 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
(1.0) |
| Nasdaq |
2,200 |
1.1 |
(4.5) |
(3.0) |
| S&P 500 |
1,090 |
0.9 |
(1.2) |
(2.2) |
| FTSE |
5,371 |
0.1 |
3.1 |
(0.8) |
| CAC |
3,631 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
(7.7) |
| DAX |
6,084 |
(0.0) |
0.5 |
2.1 |
| Hang Seng* |
20,897 |
0.1 |
5.6 |
(4.5) |
| Nikkei* |
9,098 |
0.4 |
(8.2) |
(13.7) |
| S&P/ASX200* |
4,541 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
(6.8) |
| * Markets are open |
|
|
|
|
| Emerging market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Shanghai Comp |
2,653 |
(0.1) |
3.9 |
(19.1) |
| Brazil Bovespa |
66,808 |
(0.4) |
6.1 |
(2.6) |
| Mexico Bolsa |
32,417 |
0.2 |
3.5 |
0.9 |
| Kospi* |
1,780 |
0.2 |
7.1 |
5.8 |
| Micex |
1,402 |
0.5 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
| Taiwan* |
7,815 |
1.2 |
6.2 |
(4.6) |
| Straits* |
2,989 |
0.1 |
7.0 |
3.2 |
| * Markets are open |
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|
|
|
| Institutional activity |
|
| (Rs cr) |
Cash |
F&O |
MTD |
YTD |
| FIIs |
527 |
1,348 |
10,647 |
58,549 |
| MFs |
161 |
- |
(2,818) |
(15,168) |
| FIIs Prov. |
82 |
|
|
|
| MFs Prov. |
(118) |
|
|
|
| Commodities |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Crude (US$/bbl) |
74.8 |
(0.3) |
0.3 |
(5.7) |
| Gold (US$/oz) |
1,250 |
(0.1) |
3.6 |
14.0 |
| Copper (US$/mt) |
7,623 |
0.4 |
14.8 |
3.8 |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) |
2,120 |
1.7 |
8.6 |
(3.5) |
| Zinc (US$/mt) |
2,145 |
2.0 |
21.2 |
(15.2) |
| Advance/Decline stocks |
|
|
|
|
| (Nos) |
A |
B |
S |
Total |
| Adv |
133 |
1,220 |
259 |
1,848 |
| Dec |
69 |
724 |
162 |
1,085 |
| Unch |
2 |
91 |
11 |
122 |
| A/D ratio (x)* |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
| *A/D excluding Unch |
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|
|
|
| Trade value |
|
|
| (Rs cr) |
|
% chg |
| Cash NSE |
13,337 |
(0.5) |
| Cash BSE |
4,898 |
2.4 |
| Total Cash |
18,235 |
0.3 |
| Delivery (%) |
39.4 |
- |
| Derivatives |
84,089 |
(8.8) |
| Currency |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Rs/US$ |
46.71 |
(0.2) |
0.6 |
(0.4) |
| Rs/EUR |
59.53 |
(0.5) |
(4.9) |
11.9 |
| US$/GBP |
1.54 |
0.2 |
5.5 |
(4.6) |
| US$/EUR |
1.28 |
0.1 |
5.5 |
(10.4) |
| Yen/US$ |
84.35 |
0.1 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
| Bond market |
|
|
| |
Last Close (%) |
Bps chg |
| 10yr Gsec |
7.97 |
0.03 |
| Call rate |
4.60 |
(0.50) |
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