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| India Infoline Research Team / 08:36 , Feb 04, 2010 |
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Hopefully, the bulls will have learnt from past experience and will not go overboard with any sudden spurt. After a strong rally, we expect a subdued start as global markets have not extended this week’s spurt. However, the trading range could shift to 4900-5000 for the Nifty. A fall back to 4800 is not ruled out though and resistance is likely to kick in upwards of 5000. FII flows should turn positive, Budget should not disappoint and global situation must improve for a sustainable and meaningful advance above 5000. |
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Experience teaches slowly and at the cost of mistakes.
Hopefully, the bulls will have learnt from past experience and will not go overboard with any sudden spurt. After a strong rally, we expect a subdued start as global markets have not extended this week’s spurt. However, the trading range could shift to 4900-5000 for the Nifty. A fall back to 4800 is not ruled out though and resistance is likely to kick in upwards of 5000. FII flows should turn positive, Budget should not disappoint and global situation must improve for a sustainable and meaningful advance above 5000.
Stocks in the budget-sensitive sectors could see action in the run-up to the big event. So, sectors like railways, power, infra, education, healthcare, fertilizers and textiles could hog the limelight. PSU oil marketing companies will gain in the wake of the reformist recommendations of the Kirit Parikh panel. The big question is will the Government bite the bullet on oil sector deregulation? The Government will also be hard pressed to return to the path of fiscal consolidation given the postponement of the 3G auction and expected shortfall in disinvestment proceeds.
| ADR/GDR |
|
|
|
| |
Latest (US$) |
Price % chg |
% Prem/Disc |
| Dr. Reddys |
24.8 |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
| HDFC Bk |
121.6 |
1.0 |
14.9 |
| ICICI Bk |
37.0 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
| ITC |
5.5 |
3.6 |
(0.1) |
| Infosys |
53.2 |
0.2 |
(1.1) |
| Satyam |
5.1 |
1.4 |
15.6 |
| Ranbaxy |
9.5 |
0.0 |
(0.3) |
| Reliance |
44.7 |
0.2 |
(0.6) |
| Wipro |
20.9 |
1.1 |
43.1 |
| SBI |
87.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
| Tata Motors |
15.7 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
| Sterlite |
16.8 |
1.7 |
(1.4) |
| L&T |
31.6 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
| Indian market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Sensex |
16,496 |
2.1 |
7.1 |
(5.5) |
| Nifty |
4,932 |
2.1 |
8.1 |
(5.2) |
| BSE 100 |
2,092 |
2.0 |
10.1 |
(4.0) |
| BSE 200 |
6,599 |
1.9 |
11.0 |
(3.6) |
| CNX Midcap |
7,374 |
1.8 |
15.5 |
(0.8) |
| BSE Smallcap |
8,481 |
1.1 |
25.8 |
1.5 |
| Developed market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Dow Jones |
10,271 |
(0.3) |
5.1 |
(1.5) |
| Nasdaq |
2,191 |
0.0 |
6.5 |
(3.4) |
| S&P 500 |
1,097 |
(0.5) |
5.0 |
(1.6) |
| FTSE |
5,253 |
(0.6) |
4.3 |
(3.0) |
| CAC |
3,793 |
(0.5) |
5.8 |
(3.6) |
| DAX |
5,672 |
(0.7) |
6.0 |
(4.8) |
| Hang Seng* |
20,509 |
(1.0) |
(5.1) |
(6.2) |
| Nikkei* |
10,344 |
(0.6) |
5.1 |
(1.9) |
| S&P/ASX200* |
4,608 |
(0.9) |
1.5 |
(5.4) |
| * Markets are open |
|
|
|
|
| Emerging market |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Shanghai Comp |
2,981 |
(0.7) |
(4.7) |
(9.0) |
| Brazil Bovespa |
67,109 |
(0.1) |
7.1 |
(2.2) |
| Mexico Bolsa |
31,287 |
1.3 |
8.3 |
(2.6) |
| Kospi* |
1,616 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
(4.0) |
| Micex |
1,431 |
(0.4) |
17.5 |
4.5 |
| Taiwan* |
7,529 |
(0.3) |
0.8 |
(8.1) |
| Straits* |
2,749 |
(0.6) |
3.8 |
(5.1) |
| * Markets are open |
|
|
|
|
| Institutional activity |
|
| (Rs cr) |
Cash |
F&O |
MTD |
YTD |
| FIIs |
11 |
2,955 |
(1,875) |
(1,174) |
| MFs |
(247) |
- |
(1,328) |
(1,526) |
| FIIs Prov. |
396 |
|
|
|
| MFs Prov. |
0.46 |
|
|
|
| Commodities |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Crude (US$/bbl) |
77.0 |
(0.3) |
(4.5) |
(3.3) |
| Gold (US$/oz) |
1,110 |
(0.4) |
1.6 |
1.2 |
| Copper (US$/mt) |
6,567 |
(3.3) |
2.0 |
(10.6) |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) |
2,049 |
(1.8) |
9.3 |
(6.7) |
| Zinc (US$/mt) |
2,081 |
(3.1) |
(3.4) |
(17.7) |
| Advance/Decline stocks |
|
|
|
|
| (Nos) |
A |
B |
S |
Total |
| Adv |
180 |
979 |
229 |
1,775 |
| Dec |
23 |
573 |
147 |
1,046 |
| Unch |
1 |
51 |
11 |
100 |
| A/D ratio (x)* |
7.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
| *A/D excluding Unch |
|
|
|
|
| Trade value |
|
|
| (Rs cr) |
|
% chg |
| Cash NSE |
13,715 |
(12.9) |
| Cash BSE |
4,503 |
(8.5) |
| Total Cash |
18,218 |
(11.8) |
| Delivery (%) |
34.2 |
- |
| Derivatives |
78,756 |
(1.2) |
| Currency |
|
% change |
| |
Last close |
1 day |
3 mth |
YTD |
| Rs/US$ |
45.98 |
(0.6) |
3.1 |
1.2 |
| Rs/EUR |
63.62 |
(1.2) |
9.7 |
4.7 |
| US$/GBP |
1.59 |
(0.4) |
(3.2) |
(1.6) |
| US$/EUR |
1.39 |
(0.6) |
(5.7) |
(3.0) |
| Yen/US$ |
90.88 |
0.6 |
(0.6) |
2.4 |
| Bond market |
|
|
| |
Last Close (%) |
Bps chg |
| 10yr Gsec |
7.68 |
0.01 |
| Call rate |
3.25 |
0.35 |
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