Less pain in Spain

Numbing the pain for a while will make it worse when you finally feel it.

- JK Rowling

Suddenly, Spain now rhymes better with gain than pain. World markets had a good week after a long time amid optimism of emergency policy action from policymakers in the face of deteriorating growth prospects. Some of that optimism faded a wee bit after the ECB and the Federal Reserve refrained from announcing any fresh stimulus. However, mounting expectations of a bailout for struggling Spanish banks managed to keep the tempo going. Over the weekend, the eurozone finance ministers agreed to lend Spain up to US$125bn to shore up its ailing lenders, giving further fillip to the global ‘risk-on’ trade.

China’s exports in May topped analysts’ estimates while industrial output and retail sales trailed forecasts. China’s market is rather subdued while other Asian markets have posted decent gains. The euro and crude oil are also up.

We expect a firm opening for Indian equities. The fate of the current upswing will hinge on few important events over the next few days. IIP, inflation, advance tax numbers, Greek election, RBI policy, FOMC meet and G-20 summit are among the major events that will determine near-term direction.

ADR/GDR
	Latest (US$)	Price % chg	% Prem/Disc
Dr. Reddys	29.1	(0.4)	(0.4)
HDFC Bk	30.2	(1.5)	3.7
ICICI Bk	30.2	0.2	0.9
ITC	4.3	0.3	0.2
Infosys	43.6	(0.6)	(0.0)
Ranbaxy	8.7	(2.7)	(1.9)
Reliance	25.9	(1.8)	(1.5)
Wipro	8.9	(0.4)	22.4
SBI	78.0	(0.7)	(0.8)
Tata Motors	21.7	0.7	0.5
Sterlite	7.3	3.8	0.5
L&T	23.3	0.3	(1.4)

Indian market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Sensex	16,719	0.0	(4.5)	8.2
Nifty	5,068	0.4	(5.0)	9.6
BSE 100	2,054	0.0	(5.4)	11.0
BSE 200	6,429	0.0	(5.4)	11.3
CNX Midcap	7,034	0.4	(8.5)	15.1
BSE Smallcap	6,326	0.0	(6.3)	14.0
Developed market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Dow Jones	12,554	0.7	(2.8)	2.8
Nasdaq	2,858	1.0	(4.3)	9.7
S&P 500	1,326	0.8	(3.3)	5.4
FTSE	5,435	(0.2)	(7.7)	(2.5)
CAC	3,052	(0.6)	(12.5)	(3.4)
DAX	6,131	(0.2)	(10.9)	3.9
Hang Seng*	18,879	2.0	(10.5)	2.4
Nikkei*	8,617	1.9	(13.2)	1.9
S&P/ASX200*	4,064	(1.1)	(3.5)	0.2
* Markets are open
Emerging market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Shanghai Comp	2,286	0.2	(6.3)	4.0
Brazil Bovespa	54,430	0.5	(18.4)	(4.1)
Mexico Bolsa	37,324	0.2	(1.0)	0.7
Kospi*	1,866	1.6	(7.6)	2.2
Micex	1,338	0.4	(16.7)	(4.6)
Taiwan*	7,086	1.2	(11.6)	0.2
Straits*	2,780	1.6	(6.2)	5.1
* Markets are open
Institutional activity
(Rs cr)	Cash	F&O	MTD	YTD
FIIs	741	299	280	41,515
MFs	290	-	763	(5,534)
FIIs Prov.	202
MFs Prov.	(81)
Commodities		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Crude (US$/bbl)	86.1	2.4	(19.8)	(12.9)
Gold (US$/oz)	1,597	0.2	(6.8)	2.1
Copper (US$/mt)	7,283	(2.7)	(12.6)	(4.0)
Aluminium (US$/mt)	1,948	(0.4)	(9.9)	(2.3)
Zinc (US$/mt)	1,863	(2.1)	(8.3)	2.0
Advance/Decline stocks
(Nos)	A	B	S	Total
Adv	112	968	291	1,371
Dec	91	980	286	1,357
Unch	1	80	37	118
A/D ratio (x)*	1.2	1.0	1.0	1.0
*A/D excluding Unch
Trade value
(Rs cr)			% chg
Cash NSE	9,741		(8.8)
Cash BSE	1,916		(9.2)
Total Cash	11,657		(8.9)
Delivery (%)	33.5		-
Derivatives	105,098		16.1
Currency		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Rs/US$	55.46	0.9	(9.3)	(4.3)
Rs/EUR	69.11	(0.1)	(4.5)	(0.5)
US$/GBP	1.55	0.5	(0.6)	0.0
US$/EUR	1.26	0.9	(4.0)	(2.6)
Yen/US$	79.60	0.1	3.3	(3.4)
Bond market
	Last Close (%)		Bps chg
10yr Gsec	8.36		0.01
Call rate	8.10		(0.10)