|
|
| India Infoline Research Team / 09:00 , Mar 22, 2010 |
|
Just when the main indices were closing in on 52-week highs comes the somewhat ‘unexpected’ RBI rate hikes. That the central bank would raise key rates was a given with inflation spiking to nearly double digits. What surprised was the timing of the announcement. Also, post the January meet, RBI had maintained it would not hike rates before April meet. But last week, a deputy governor said the central bank was open to revising rates up before April 20. May be he was not taken seriously. |
|
If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience. – GB Shaw
Just when the main indices were closing in on 52-week highs comes the somewhat ‘unexpected’ RBI rate hikes. That the central bank would raise key rates was a given with inflation spiking to nearly double digits. What surprised was the timing of the announcement. Also, post the January meet, RBI had maintained it would not hike rates before April meet. But last week, a deputy governor said the central bank was open to revising rates up before April 20. May be he was not taken seriously.
When trading resumes today, we expect to a fall of about 1-1.5% in the key indices. The fall will be paced by banks and other rate sensitive sectors like real estate. Whether the decline stops there or continues is a mystery still. One will also have to keep an eye on global cues, especially from Europe where Greece will hold a summit with regional leaders for emergency aid. F&O expiry and a public holiday will add to the uncertainty and volatility.
ADR/GDR
|
|
|
|
|
Latest (US$)
|
Price % chg
|
% Prem/Disc
|
Dr. Reddys
|
28.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
HDFC Bk
|
129.3
|
(0.3)
|
7.8
|
ICICI Bk
|
40.8
|
(3.8)
|
(3.0)
|
ITC
|
5.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
Infosys
|
60.7
|
(1.7)
|
(0.4)
|
Satyam
|
5.3
|
(0.6)
|
23.6
|
Ranbaxy
|
10.0
|
(2.2)
|
(2.8)
|
Reliance
|
46.8
|
(0.4)
|
(2.4)
|
Wipro
|
23.3
|
(2.9)
|
45.6
|
SBI
|
90.4
|
(1.7)
|
(0.1)
|
Tata Motors
|
18.0
|
(1.4)
|
4.5
|
Sterlite
|
17.8
|
(1.1)
|
(1.8)
|
L&T
|
35.1
|
(1.4)
|
(1.5)
|
Indian market
|
|
% change
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
Sensex
|
17,578
|
0.3
|
5.3
|
0.6
|
Nifty
|
5,263
|
0.0
|
5.6
|
1.2
|
BSE 100
|
2,199
|
0.3
|
4.8
|
0.9
|
BSE 200
|
6,913
|
0.3
|
5.0
|
1.0
|
CNX Midcap
|
7,602
|
0.0
|
5.2
|
2.3
|
BSE Smallcap
|
8,495
|
0.4
|
6.8
|
1.6
|
Developed market
|
|
% change
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
Dow Jones
|
10,742
|
(0.3)
|
2.6
|
3.0
|
Nasdaq
|
2,374
|
(0.7)
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
S&P 500
|
1,160
|
(0.5)
|
3.7
|
4.0
|
FTSE
|
5,650
|
0.1
|
6.0
|
4.4
|
CAC
|
3,925
|
(0.3)
|
0.7
|
(0.3)
|
DAX
|
5,982
|
(0.5)
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
Hang Seng*
|
20,943
|
(2.0)
|
(0.7)
|
(4.2)
|
Nikkei*
|
10,825
|
0.8
|
4.3
|
2.6
|
S&P/ASX200*
|
4,832
|
(0.8)
|
2.7
|
(0.8)
|
* Markets are open
|
|
|
|
|
Emerging market
|
|
% change
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
Shanghai Comp
|
3,070
|
0.1
|
0.6
|
(6.3)
|
Brazil Bovespa
|
68,829
|
(1.2)
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
Mexico Bolsa
|
33,023
|
0.2
|
2.4
|
2.8
|
Kospi*
|
1,670
|
(1.0)
|
0.8
|
(0.8)
|
Micex
|
1,421
|
(0.9)
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
Taiwan*
|
7,814
|
(1.1)
|
(0.5)
|
(4.6)
|
Straits*
|
2,901
|
(0.5)
|
2.7
|
0.1
|
* Markets are open
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional activity
|
|
(Rs cr)
|
Cash
|
F&O
|
MTD
|
YTD
|
FIIs
|
711
|
340
|
15,888
|
14,616
|
MFs
|
(52)
|
-
|
(2,685)
|
(4,320)
|
FIIs Prov.
|
284
|
|
|
|
MFs Prov.
|
113
|
|
|
|
Commodities
|
|
% change
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
Crude (US$/bbl)
|
80.1
|
(0.7)
|
7.7
|
1.0
|
Gold (US$/oz)
|
1,107
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
0.9
|
Copper (US$/mt)
|
7,398
|
(0.7)
|
8.8
|
0.8
|
Aluminium (US$/mt)
|
2,225
|
(0.8)
|
1.1
|
1.3
|
Zinc (US$/mt)
|
2,264
|
(1.7)
|
(4.8)
|
(10.5)
|
Advance/Decline stocks
|
|
|
|
|
(Nos)
|
A
|
B
|
S
|
Total
|
Adv
|
105
|
887
|
203
|
1,381
|
Dec
|
97
|
927
|
223
|
1,459
|
Unch
|
1
|
72
|
17
|
110
|
A/D ratio (x)*
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
*A/D excluding Unch
|
|
|
|
|
Trade value
|
|
|
(Rs cr)
|
|
% chg
|
Cash NSE
|
13,380
|
(3.6)
|
Cash BSE
|
4,330
|
(14.2)
|
Total Cash
|
17,710
|
(6.4)
|
Delivery (%)
|
42.2
|
-
|
Derivatives
|
75,841
|
3.2
|
Currency
|
|
% change
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
Rs/US$
|
45.50
|
0.1
|
3.0
|
2.3
|
Rs/EUR
|
61.27
|
(0.4)
|
8.9
|
8.7
|
US$/GBP
|
1.50
|
(0.0)
|
(6.0)
|
(7.2)
|
US$/EUR
|
1.35
|
(0.1)
|
(5.1)
|
(5.6)
|
Yen/US$
|
90.44
|
(0.1)
|
1.5
|
2.9
|
Bond market
|
|
|
|
Last Close (%)
|
Bps chg
|
10yr Gsec
|
7.89
|
0.04
|
Call rate
|
3.50
|
0.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|