On expected lines

“A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes”

- Mark Twain

Things went along expected lines on Monday. While stocks got pummeled initially in the wake of unfavourable outcome of elections in France and Greece, the market rebounded in the afternoon after the Finance Minister deferred the implementation of the proposed GAAR by a year. He has also rolled back a few other seemingly unpopular measures. The rupee, which took a fresh tumble manage to rally 1%.

What is even more heartening is that markets in Europe and the US managed to bounce back after the initial knee-jerk fall. But, the Greek stock benchmark sank 7% following a hung election verdict. Greece is perhaps more of a problem than France. So, brace for some fresh uncertainty in the eurozone in the near term. We expect a flat to mildly positive start. The direction during the rest of the session will hinge on domestic corporate results and trend in global markets. Watch out for IIP data later in the week. FII flows are the major cause for concern at the moment. Some material progress on reforms could provide a kicker here.

Q4 FY12 result preview:
Hindalco (standalone) – Sales Rs70.7bn (3.3% yoy), PAT Rs5bn (-29.1% yoy).

ADR/GDR
	Latest (US$)	Price % chg	% Prem/Disc
Dr. Reddys	32.4	(0.4)	(0.1)
HDFC Bk	32.8	1.3	8.8
ICICI Bk	31.6	2.2	(1.3)
ITC	4.5	0.4	0.1
Infosys	44.9	(1.8)	(2.6)
Ranbaxy	9.3	(1.4)	(2.1)
Reliance	26.8	(4.0)	(1.1)
Wipro	9.2	(2.0)	18.0
SBI	75.0	(3.9)	(2.2)
Tata Motors	28.7	2.9	(1.4)
Sterlite	7.7	2.5	(0.2)
L&T	21.4	(4.4)	(5.8)

Indian market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Sensex	16,913	0.5	(4.5)	9.4
Nifty	5,114	(1.4)	(4.7)	10.6
BSE 100	2,084	0.6	(4.0)	12.6
BSE 200	6,535	0.6	(3.7)	13.1
CNX Midcap	7,240	(1.6)	(2.6)	18.5
BSE Smallcap	6,608	0.3	(3.0)	19.1
Developed market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Dow Jones	13,009	(0.2)	1.0	6.5
Nasdaq	2,958	0.0	1.4	13.5
S&P 500	1,370	0.0	1.5	8.9
FTSE	5,655	(1.9)	(4.0)	1.5
CAC	3,214	1.7	(5.7)	1.7
DAX	6,569	0.1	(2.7)	11.4
Hang Seng*	20,602	0.3	(2.0)	11.8
Nikkei*	9,169	0.5	1.7	8.4
S&P/ASX200*	4,309	0.2	0.4	6.2
* Markets are open
Emerging market		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Shanghai Comp	2,433	(0.8)	3.6	10.6
Brazil Bovespa	61,220	0.7	(7.0)	7.9
Mexico Bolsa	40,046	1.6	5.0	8.0
Kospi*	1,965	0.4	(1.9)	7.6
Micex	1,385	(0.1)	(10.9)	(1.2)
Taiwan*	7,542	0.0	(4.2)	6.6
Straits*	2,936	0.4	(1.5)	10.9
* Markets are open
Institutional activity
(Rs cr)	Cash	F&O	MTD	YTD
FIIs	513	(435)	848	44,317
MFs	-	-	(500)	(6,457)
FIIs Prov.	(631)
MFs Prov.	274
Commodities		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Crude (US$/bbl)	97.8	(0.1)	(0.9)	(1.0)
Gold (US$/oz)	1,638	(0.1)	(5.5)	4.7
Copper (US$/mt)	8,254	(0.4)	(2.4)	8.7
Aluminium (US$/mt)	2,028	(1.1)	(8.4)	1.7
Zinc (US$/mt)	1,992	0.7	(5.4)	9.0
Advance/Decline stocks
(Nos)	A	B	S	Total
Adv	136	1,079	225	1,440
Dec	63	924	283	1,270
Unch	3	99	34	136
A/D ratio (x)*	2.2	1.2	0.8	1.1
*A/D excluding Unch
Trade value
(Rs cr)			% chg
Cash NSE	11,678		1.8
Cash BSE	2,026		(21.0)
Total Cash	13,704		(2.4)
Delivery (%)	38.9		-
Derivatives	136,157		21.6
Currency		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Rs/US$	52.92	(1.0)	(7.0)	0.3
Rs/EUR	68.98	(1.7)	(6.4)	(0.3)
US$/GBP	1.62	(0.1)	2.3	4.1
US$/EUR	1.30	(0.1)	(1.7)	0.6
Yen/US$	79.98	0.1	(3.7)	(3.8)
Bond market
	Last Close (%)		Bps chg
10yr Gsec	8.67		0.01
Call rate	8.40		(0.10)