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| India Infoline Research Team / 10:32 , May 05, 2011 |
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CMP Rs1,600, Target Rs1,680, Upside 5.0%
- Revenues rise 31% yoy due to 22.6% yoy growth in volumes and 7% higher realizations
- Higher raw material costs owing to higher commodity prices and increased overheads led to 516bps yoy fall in OPM to 12.1%
- Higher production from Uttaranchal plant results in lower effective tax rate
- Key concerns: R&D capabilities following exit of Honda, sustenance of margins
- Maintian Market Performer rating with a 9-month price target of Rs1,680 (P/E of13x FY13E EPS)
Result table
| (Rs m) |
Q4 FY11 |
Q4 FY10 |
% yoy |
Q3 FY11 |
% qoq |
| Volume |
1,454,431 |
1,186,536 |
22.6 |
1,428,030 |
1.8 |
| Realisation |
37,066 |
34,742 |
6.7 |
36,145 |
2.5 |
| Net sales |
53,909 |
41,223 |
30.8 |
51,617 |
4.4 |
| Material costs |
(39,269) |
(27,684) |
41.8 |
(38,149) |
2.9 |
| Personnel costs |
(1,680) |
(1,460) |
15.1 |
(1,561) |
7.7 |
| Other overheads |
(6,432) |
(4,962) |
29.6 |
(6,141) |
4.7 |
| Operating profit |
6,528 |
7,117 |
(8.3) |
5,766 |
13.2 |
| OPM (%) |
12.1 |
17.3 |
(516) bps |
11.2 |
94 bps |
| Depreciation |
(603) |
(487) |
23.9 |
(560) |
7.7 |
| Interest |
(81) |
45 |
(281.2) |
52 |
(255.2) |
| Other income |
743 |
695 |
7.0 |
620 |
19.8 |
| PBT |
6,588 |
7,370 |
(10.6) |
5,879 |
12.1 |
| Tax |
(1,572) |
(1,382) |
13.7 |
(790) |
98.9 |
| Effective tax rate (%) |
23.9 |
18.8 |
|
13.4 |
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| Adjusted PAT |
5,016 |
5,988 |
(16.2) |
5,088 |
(1.4) |
| Adj. PAT margin (%) |
9.3 |
14.5 |
(522) bps |
9.9 |
(55) bps |
| Extra ordinary items |
- |
- |
- |
(798) |
- |
| Reported PAT |
5,016 |
5,988 |
(16.2) |
4,290 |
16.9 |
| Ann. EPS (Rs) |
100.5 |
119.9 |
(16.2) |
101.9 |
(1.4) | Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Volume breakup
| As a % of net sales |
Q4 FY11 |
Q4 FY10 |
% yoy |
Q3 FY11 |
% qoq |
| Domestic |
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| <125cc |
1,219,395 |
1,028,850 |
18.5 |
1,210,795 |
0.7 |
| >125cc and <250cc |
102,687 |
68,636 |
49.6 |
88,315 |
16.3 |
| Scooters |
102,685 |
64,658 |
58.8 |
90,441 |
13.5 |
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| Exports |
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| <125cc |
20,800 |
20,124 |
3.4 |
30,027 |
(30.7) |
| >125cc and <250cc |
2,310 |
2,476 |
(6.7) |
3,804 |
(39.3) |
| Scooters |
6,554 |
1,792 |
265.7 |
4,648 |
41.0 |
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| Total |
1,454,431 |
1,186,536 |
22.6 |
1,428,030 |
1.8 | Source: SIAM
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