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Punjab National Bank: Q2 FY12

India Infoline Research Team / 11:22 , Nov 02, 2011

  • Loan growth remained modest; deposit growth continue to be strong
  • NIM expansion was better than expected; guidance factors some margin compression 
  • Core fee income declines sharply on sequential basis; C/I ratio deteriorates 
  • Asset quality continues to be weak; capital adequacy remains reasonable 
  • Valuation re-rating unlikely in near term; Retain Market Performer

Result table

(Rs m)
Q2 FY12
Q1 FY12
% qoq
Q2 FY11
% yoy
Total Interest Income
89,520
83,152
7.7
64,554
38.7
Interest expended
(54,994)
(52,000)
5.8
(34,787)
58.1
Net Interest Income
34,526
31,153
10.8
29,767
16.0
Other income
8,889
10,837
(18.0)
7,183
23.8
Total Income
43,414
41,990
3.4
36,950
17.5
Operating expenses
(18,137)
(17,250)
5.1
(15,949)
13.7
Provisions
(7,103)
(8,935)
-
(5,160)
-
PBT
18,175
15,804
15.0
15,841
14.7
Tax
(6,124)
(4,753)
-
(5,095)
-
Reported PAT
12,050
11,051
9.0
10,746
12.1
EPS
152.1
139.5
9.0
136.3
11.6

 

Key  Ratios
Q2 FY12
Q1 FY12
chg qoq
Q2 FY11
chg yoy
NIM (%)
4.0
3.8
0.1
4.1
(0.1)
Yield on advances (%)
11.9
11.4
0.5
10.6
1.4
Yield on Funds (%)
9.0
8.7
0.3
8.2
0.9
Cost of Deposits (%)
6.5
6.3
0.2
5.0
1.6
Cost of Funds (%)
5.5
5.4
0.1
4.4
1.2
CASA (%)
36.3
37.4
(1.1)
40.6
(4.3)
C/D (x)
0.73
0.75
(0.02)
0.76
(0.04)
Non-int. income (%)
20.5
25.8
(5.3)
19.4
1.0
Cost to Income (%)
41.8
41.1
0.7
43.2
(1.4)
BV (Rs)
7.2
9.5
(2.3)
7.2
0.0
RoE (%)
705.4
667.4
38.0
582.7
122.7
RoA (%)
21.6
20.9
0.7
23.4
(1.8)
CAR (%)
1.2
1.2
0.1
1.4
(0.2)
Gross NPA (%)
12.2
12.4
(0.2)
12.6
(0.4)
Net NPA (%)
2.1
2.0
0.0
1.9
0.1

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

 

Loan growth remained modest; deposit growth continue to be strong

Against our expectation of 3-4% qoq growth, PNB’s loan book grew lower by 2.5% qoq. On yoy basis, growth momentum moderated further to 19% yoy (23.5% in Q1 FY12 and 30% in Q4 FY11). Growth in large corporate segment (3.6% qoq and 25% yoy) continues to be better than overall bank. Deposits growth remained buoyant, better than advances, at 5.5% qoq (25% yoy) mainly driven by substantial mobilization of retail TDs (9% qoq) due to high rates offered. Share of bulk deposits declined marginally to 23.7% while CASA share was lower by nearly 100bps at 36%. The C/D ratio deteriorated for yet another quarter to 73%. On account of modest credit expansion in H1 FY12, we believe that it would be difficult for PNB to grow ahead of the system in FY12.


NIM expansion was better than expected; guidance factors some margin compression   

PNB’s NIM improved sequentially by 11bps to 4% driven by significant improvement in YoA (50bps) and contained increase in CoD (20bps qoq). Yield improvement was aided by material lending rate hikes before and during the quarter and lower-than-expected increase in deposits cost could have been driven by beneficial re-pricing on bulk deposits. Management guidance on NIM continues to be conservative at 3.5% implying that bank would be hesitant in passing further funding cost increases and also higher emphasis to be laid on growth going ahead. 


Core fee income declines sharply on sequential basis; C/I ratio deteriorates

Driven by lower processing fees and muted LC/LG income (both impacted by modest credit expansion in H1), core fee income of the bank declined by sharp 18% qoq. Trading profit (Rs530mn) was nearly flat on sequential basis while recovery in written-off accounts was significantly lower (Rs0.8bn v/s Rs1.1bn). Overall opex growth was modest at 5% qoq despite the sharp increase in non-employee cost. C/I ratio deteriorated by 80bps qoq to 41.8% on account of lower other income.


Asset quality continues to be weak; capital adequacy remains reasonable  

PNB slippages were material at ~1.6% during Q2 FY12 pushing up absolute GNPL 5% qoq. GNPL ratio increased to 2.1%, the top-end of bank’s guidance. Of the Rs10bn fresh additions during the quarter, Rs1.7bn (Rs2.8bn in Q1 FY12) was slippage from the restructured book. There was substantial increase (~Rs41bn) in the bank’s restructured book; currently standing at significant 8% of advances (one of the highest in the sector). One of the large restructuring done during the quarter was of TNEB exposure worth ~Rs17.5bn. The entity has now been given five years to repay the loan (no moratorium and interest rate reduction). With LLP at Rs3.2bn, credit cost was modest at 0.5% (0.9% in the previous quarter). There was substantial increase in provisioning for standard restructured assets (at Rs790mn) and investment depreciation (Rs1.61bn, partly higher due to conservatism). We expect credit cost to materially increase in coming two quarters as asset quality would likely remain weak. Including Q2 FY12 plough backs, CAR stood at 13.2%; should be able to support bank’s medium-term growth objective.

 

Valuation re-rating unlikely in near term; Retain Market Performer

Overall, PNB’s results were a mixed-bag with key negatives being muted credit growth, lower other income, higher loan restructuring and key positives being significant NIM expansion and lower LLP. The critical concern for PNB is with regards to asset quality given alarming restructured assets and bank’s higher exposure to troubled sectors of infrastructure (power) and real estate. Though the return profile of the bank is likely to remain better than many other public banks, valuation is unlikely to re-rate significantly in near-term. We maintain Market Performer rating with price target of Rs1,090.

 

Financial summary

Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m)
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
Total operating income
120,882
154,199
182,040
217,194
yoy growth (%)
21.5
27.6
18.1
19.3
Operating profit (pre-provisions)
73,263
90,557
107,260
127,458
Net profit
39,054
44,335
51,412
63,104
yoy growth (%)
26.4
13.5
16.0
22.7
 
 
 
 
 
EPS (Rs)
123.9
140.6
163.1
200.1
BVPS (Rs)
483.6
570.8
689.3
838.1
P/E (x)
8.0
7.1
6.1
5.0
P/BV (x)
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.2
ROE (%)
26.6
24.4
23.2
23.5
ROA (%)
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
Dividend yield (%)
2.2
2.2
2.5
3.2
CAR (%)
14.8
13.0
12.9
12.8

Source: Company, India Infoline Research