CMP Rs1,416, Target Rs1,276, Downside 9.9%
-
Ultratech Q4 revenues grew by 18% yoy, in line with estimates. Average realization stood at Rs4,756/ton up 13% yoy and 3.7% qoq basis.
-
Margin improved 61bps yoy and 202bps qoq to 24.5%; operational performance boosted by decline in other overhead cost to Rs717/ton vs Rs822/ton in the same period last year
-
Other income up 230% yoy and 90% qoq resulted into PAT growth of 19.3% yoy as against an expectation of +3% yoy. In addition, lower tax outgo (effective tax rate stood at 26%) boosted earnings.
-
We upgrade our price target to Rs1,276 (from Rs1,175) as we revise up FY13 and FY14 EPS estimates by 7% and 10% respectively. We maintain our Market Performer rating.
Result table
| (Rs m) |
Q4 FY12 |
Q4 FY11 |
% yoy |
Q3 FY12 |
% qoq |
| Net sales |
53,365 |
44,901 |
18.8 |
45,719 |
16.7 |
| Other Operating Income |
550 |
658 |
(16.4) |
789 |
(30.4) |
| Material costs |
(7,689) |
(6,321) |
21.6 |
(6,313) |
21.8 |
| Personnel costs |
(2,195) |
(2,169) |
1.2 |
(2,226) |
(1.4) |
| Power and fuel costs |
(11,902) |
(9,656) |
23.3 |
(11,186) |
6.4 |
| Freight cost |
(10,889) |
(8,205) |
32.7 |
(8,403) |
29.6 |
| Other overheads |
(8,049) |
(8,341) |
(3.5) |
(7,942) |
1.4 |
| Operating profit |
13,190 |
10,868 |
21.4 |
10,439 |
26.4 |
| OPM (%) |
24.5 |
23.9 |
61 bps |
22.4 |
202 bps |
| Depreciation |
(2,332) |
(2,267) |
2.9 |
(2,236) |
4.3 |
| Interest |
(586) |
(829) |
(29.4) |
(295) |
98.2 |
| Other income |
1,450 |
436 |
232.3 |
765 |
89.6 |
| PBT |
11,723 |
8,208 |
42.8 |
8,672 |
35.2 |
| Tax |
(3,050) |
(940) |
224.5 |
(2,503) |
21.8 |
| Effective tax rate (%) |
26.0 |
11.5 |
1456 bps |
28.9 |
(285) bps |
| Exceptional Item |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Reported PAT |
8,673 |
7,268 |
19.3 |
6,168 |
40.6 |
| Adjusted PAT |
8,673 |
7,268 |
19.3 |
6,168 |
40.6 |
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Cost analysis
| As a % of net sales |
Q4 FY12 |
Q4 FY11 |
bps yoy |
Q3 FY12 |
bps qoq |
| Material costs |
14.3 |
13.9 |
39 |
13.6 |
69 |
| Personnel Costs |
4.1 |
4.8 |
(69) |
4.8 |
(71) |
| Power and fuel costs |
22.1 |
21.2 |
88 |
24.1 |
(198) |
| Freight cost |
20.2 |
18.0 |
219 |
18.1 |
213 |
| Other overheads |
14.9 |
18.3 |
(338) |
17.1 |
(215) |
| Total costs |
75.5 |
76.1 |
(61) |
77.6 |
(202) |
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Financial Summary
| Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) |
FY11 |
FY12E |
FY13E |
FY14E |
| Revenues |
140,684 |
181,835 |
200,733 |
209,483 |
| yoy growth (%) |
93.2 |
29.3 |
10.4 |
4.4 |
| Operating profit |
28,608 |
42,425 |
45,894 |
48,199 |
| OPM (%) |
20.3 |
23.3 |
22.9 |
23.0 |
| Pre-exceptional PAT |
13,681 |
24,461 |
26,503 |
27,216 |
| Reported PAT |
13,681 |
24,461 |
26,503 |
27,216 |
| yoy growth (%) |
24.9 |
78.8 |
8.4 |
2.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| EPS (Rs) |
49.1 |
87.7 |
95.1 |
97.6 |
| P/E (x) |
28.7 |
16.1 |
14.8 |
14.4 |
| Price/Book (x) |
3.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
15.6 |
10.4 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
| Debt/Equity (x) |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| RoE (%) |
17.9 |
20.7 |
18.5 |
16.1 |
| RoCE (%) |
16.4 |
18.8 |
19.0 |
17.5 |
Source: Company, India Infoline Research