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| India Infoline Research Team / 16:28 , Feb 08, 2012 |
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CMP Rs466, Target price Rs428, Downside 8.2%
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UB reported a ~58% yoy rise inrevenues but growth not comparable yoy as Q3 FY12 revenues include results ofseveral merged entities notably Millenium Alcobev, Empee Breweries and ChennaiBreweries; for 9M FY12, UBL posted 6% vol growth vs industry growth of 1.5%
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In terms of regional variationsin Q3, Maharashtra and WB reverted to growth after slowdown due to tax-ledprice increases; Karnataka too saw double digit growth but TN continues to remainchallenging
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OPM declined 305bps yoy probablyowing to consolidation impact, in our view; purchase of traded goods from MilleniumBeer Industries until Q2 has been reversed in Q3 after the merger was approvedin Nov’ 11. Reported PAT of Rs286mn includes FX loss of Rs13mn
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Performance in 9M FY12 has beenimpacted by merger of brewing entities. We accordingly tweak FY12/13 PAT forecastsdue to change in margin and interest cost estimates. Introduce FY14 forecastsand retain Market Performer with revised 9-mth target of Rs428 (earlier Rs404).
Results table
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(Rs m) |
Q3 FY12 |
Q3 FY11 |
% yoy |
9M FY12 |
% yoy |
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Net sales |
9,611 |
6,096 |
57.6 |
26,380 |
36.0 |
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Raw materials |
(1,498) |
(798) |
87.6 |
(3,584) |
52.2 |
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Packing materials |
(4,006) |
(1,591) |
151.9 |
(7,771) |
57.0 |
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Purc of traded goods |
1,591 |
(620) |
|
(986) |
(50.4) |
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Staff |
(552) |
(295) |
87.3 |
(1,370) |
49.2 |
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Selling & Distribution |
(2,967) |
(1,713) |
73.3 |
(7,455) |
39.4 |
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Other expenditure |
(1,433) |
(421) |
240.5 |
(2,571) |
98.4 |
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Operating profit |
746 |
659 |
13.2 |
2,644 |
4.2 |
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OPM (%) |
7.8 |
10.8 |
(305) bps |
10.0 |
(306) bps |
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Depreciation |
(532) |
(240) |
121.2 |
(1,003) |
39.7 |
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Interest |
(281) |
(136) |
106.1 |
(714) |
77.7 |
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Other income |
508 |
169 |
200.3 |
873 |
67.4 |
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PBT |
442 |
452 |
(2.2) |
1,800 |
(7.1) |
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Tax |
(143) |
(154) |
(7.1) |
(596) |
(9.7) |
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Effective tax rate (%) |
33.3 |
34.1 |
(78) bps |
33.3 |
(70) bps |
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Adjusted PAT |
299 |
298 |
0.4 |
1,204 |
(5.8) |
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Adj. PAT margin (%) |
3.1 |
4.9 |
(177) bps |
4.6 |
(203) bps |
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Extra ordinary items |
(13) |
- |
- |
(13) |
- |
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Reported PAT |
286 |
298 |
(3.9) |
1,192 |
(6.8) |
Source:Company, India Infoline Research
Financial summary
|
Y/e 31 March (Rs m) |
FY11 |
FY12E |
FY13E |
FY14E |
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Revenues |
30,132 |
36,568 |
40,855 |
45,449 |
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yoy growth (%) |
32.4 |
21.4 |
11.7 |
11.2 |
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Operating profit |
3,525 |
3,876 |
4,944 |
6,090 |
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OPM (%) |
11.7 |
10.6 |
12.1 |
13.4 |
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PAT |
1,475 |
1,610 |
2,074 |
2,863 |
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Pre-exceptional PAT |
1,402 |
1,610 |
2,074 |
2,863 |
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yoy growth (%) |
64.6 |
9.2 |
28.8 |
38.0 |
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EPS (Rs) |
5.6 |
6.1 |
7.9 |
10.9 |
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P/E (x) |
83.3 |
76.3 |
59.3 |
42.9 |
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P/BV (x) |
9.5 |
9.7 |
8.4 |
7.1 |
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EV/EBITDA (x) |
36.7 |
33.4 |
26.8 |
21.5 |
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Debt/Equity (x) |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
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ROE (%) |
14.0 |
14.1 |
15.9 |
18.7 |
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ROCE (%) |
12.9 |
15.8 |
18.7 |
20.5 |
Source:Company, India Infoline Research
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