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Ambuja Cements (Q4 CY09) - SELL (Target Price Rs88, Downside 12.6%)

India Infoline Research Team / 17:06 , Feb 05, 2010

  • Revenues grow by 8.9% yoy; marginally above our estimates due to better average realizations
  • Margin expands 40bps, above our expectations primarily due to sharp fall in power and fuel costs
  • Higher tax outgo drags bottom-line lower
  • Clinkerisation units at Bhatapara and Rauri commence operation
  • Valuation remains expensive; Maintain SELL

Result table

(Rs m)
Q4 CY09
Q4 CY08
% yoy
Q3 CY09
% qoq
Net sales
17,877
16,414
8.9
16,426
8.8
Material costs
(2,199)
(1,201)
83.1
(2,056)
6.9
Personnel costs
(784)
(709)
10.6
(679)
15.4
Power and fuel costs
(3,272)
(3,931)
(16.8)
(3,217)
1.7
Freight cost
(3,789)
(3,381)
12.1
(2,978)
27.2
Other overheads
(3,342)
(3,135)
6.6
(2,879)
16.1
Operating profit
4,491
4,057
10.7
4,617
(2.7)
OPM (%)
25.1
24.7
41 bps
28.1
(298) bps
Depreciation
(860)
(709)
21.3
(719)
19.6
Interest
(55)
(148)
(62.8)
(52)
5.6
Other income
395
393
0.5
578
(31.6)
PBT
3,971
3,593
10.5
4,423
(10.2)
Tax
(1,560)
(1,114)
40.0
(1,238)
26.0
Effective tax rate (%)
(39.3)
(31.0)
(828) bps
(28.0)
(1128) bps
Exceptional Item
-
-
-
-
-
Adjusted PAT
2,411
2,479
(2.7)
3,185
(24.3)
Adj. PAT margin (%)
13.5
15.1
(161) bps
19.4
(590) bps
Ann. EPS (Rs)
6.3
6.5
-
8.4
-

Source: Company, India Infoline Research


Improved realizations, strong volumes drive revenue growth

Ambuja Cements’ (ACL) revenues grew by 18.9% yoy to Rs17.8bn, above our expectations of Rs17.1bn. Buoyant cement demand in North, Central and Eastern regions (40% of ACL market share) led to an increase of 4.5% yoy (down 5.3% sequentially) in average realizations for ACL. Net realizations for the quarter stood at Rs3,674/ton, above our estimates. Volume growth of 4.8% yoy was in-line with our expectations.

OPM expanded by 40bps on lower power and fuel costs 

OPM for ACL expanded by 40bps yoy to 25.1%, which is higher than our estimates of 22.0%. Improved operating performance was on account of drop in international coal prices and higher captive power generation, which led to lower power and fuel costs (Rs679/ton against Rs854/ton). However, raw material costs surged by 498bps owing to higher clinker purchases during the quarter. Shortage of railway wagons resulted in higher freight cost to Rs786/ton against Rs706/ton during the same period previous year.

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