MPC foresees 5% CPI Inflation being achieved by Q4 FY16-17

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | October 18, 2016 17:12 IST

The committee expects that the strong improvement in sowing, along with supply management measures, will improve the food inflation outlook.

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The first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), constituted under section 45ZB of the amended Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, was held on October 3 and 4, 2016 at the Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai.

The decision of the MPC is consistent with an accommodative stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5 per cent by Q4 of 2016-17 and the medium-term target of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.

The meeting was attended by all the members - Dr. Chetan Ghate, Professor, Indian Statistical Institute; Dr. Pami Dua, Director, Delhi School of Economics; and Dr. Ravindra H. Dholakia, Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad; Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra, Executive Director (the officer of the Bank nominated by the Central Board under Section 45ZB(2)(c) of the amended Act); R. Gandhi, Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy - and was chaired by Dr. Urjit R. Patel, Governor.

The MPC reviewed the surveys conducted by the Reserve Bank to gauge consumer confidence, households’ inflation expectations, corporate sector performance, credit conditions, the outlook for the industrial, services and infrastructure sectors, feedback from industry associations and the projections of professional forecasters. The Committee reviewed in detail staff’s macroeconomic projections, alternative scenarios around various risks to the outlook and staff’s quarterly projection model. Drawing on the above and after extensive discussions on the stance of monetary policy, the MPC adopted the resolution that is set out below.

Indicators of economic activity pointed to a subdued outlook, though gradually improving; further, continuing low capacity utilisation in industry and the persistence of the output gap suggested that pricing power is likely to remain low. Importantly, high frequency data embedded in our forward-looking surveys as well as daily movements in prices of fruits and vegetables, cereals and even pulses across the country gave us some confidence that the inflation target of 5 per cent for Q4 of 2016-17 can be achieved. Therefore, while our model-based projections indicated upside risks to the target, a calibrated policy judgement was warranted, given that some space for policy action had opened up with the fall in inflation in the August reading. Nonetheless, inflation outcomes in Q4 will have to be carefully and continuously monitored as upside risks, albeit lower now than before, persist, Dr. Urjit R. Patel said.

The Committee expects that the strong improvement in sowing, along with supply management measures, will improve the food inflation outlook. It notes that the sharp drop in inflation reflects a downward shift in the momentum of food inflation - which holds the key to future inflation outcomes - rather than merely the statistical effects of a favourable base effect. The Government has announced several measures to cool food inflation pressures, especially with regard to pulses. These measures should help in moderating the momentum of food inflation in the months ahead. This has opened up space for policy action, as indicated in the third bimonthly monetary policy statement. The easy liquidity conditions engendered by the Reserve Bank’s operations should also enable the smooth transmission of the policy action through various market segments. Furthermore, banks should find added impetus for better transmission by the recent downward adjustment in small savings rates.

The Committee took note of potential cost push pressures that may emerge, including the 7th pay commission award on house rent allowances, and the increase in minimum wages with possible spillovers through minimum support prices. The fuller play of these factors will need vigilance to prevent a generalised cost spiral from taking root. On balance, the Committee envisages a trajectory taking headline CPI inflation towards a central tendency of 5 per cent by March 2017, with risks tilted to the upside albeit lower than in the second and third bi-monthly monetary policy statements of June and August respectively

Six members voted in favour of the monetary policy decision. The minutes of the MPC’s meeting will be published on October 18, 2016. The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled on December 6 and 7, 2016 and its resolution will be announced on December 7, 2016.
 

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