After eight years in power, the Congress-led coalition's pull seems to be diminishing. The result of the ABP News-Nielsen survey conducted on the eve of the UPA-II third anniversary has revealed this.
The survey, conducted across 28 cities across the country in April-May 2012, reveals that the BJP would garner 28% of the votes if Lok Sabha elections are held now, while the Congress would manage only 20%.
In fact, the BJP has turned out to be the most favoured party. In an interesting revelation, only 69% of those who voted for Congress during 2009 Lok Sabha elections are still intending to vote for it if Lok Sabha elections are held now. 31% are moving away from it and 12% of these respondents now intend to vote for the BJP. Whereas for BJP, 84% will stick with the party and only 2% are switching away from it to Congress.
In 2009 elections, 28% of these respondents voted for Congress, while 27% voted for the BJP. But for the BJP, the dip of 8% in the Congress vote share is not a complete gain. The BJP is gaining only a marginal 1%. The remaining 7% dip in Congress vote share among these respondents is gain for regional parties.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won 207 seats while BJP had got 116 seats.
While 32% believed the government's performance was good or very good, a sizable 35% rated the performance as average.
Significant 21% respondents said it was poor while 11% rated the performance as very poor. The performance of UPA government has been rated slightly below average with a mean score 2.95, which is lower than the mean score of 3.22 last year.
Manmohan scores high than his govt:
However, Manmohan Singh's ratings are good with 37% respondents saying his performance was good or very good. Another 33% ranked him average, while 28% believed his performance was poor or very poor.
Around 32% of the respondents felt that performance of UPA government is better or much better than its last term. A dip of 8% is observed in the perception of people from last year survey, where 40% of the respondents felt that the performance of UPA government is better than previous term. 39% rated UPA performance as "about the same" this year, similar score in comparison to last year.
Only 36% of the respondents felt that performance of the PM is better than its last term. A dip of 8% is noted in the perception of people from the last year survey, where 44% of respondents said that the PM performed better than his previous term.
Corruption and price rise hit UPA-II hard:
The UPA-II seems to be failing in the key parameters of governance. 25% respondents wanted the government to take immediate steps to control corruption in the country while 24% felt that the government should take steps to monitor rising food and petrol prices in the country. Immediate steps to control corruption and food inflation have been considered as the issues over which UPA government should immediately act upon.
Focus on Naxalite/Maoist issue has been cited by 15% of the respondents, this was mentioned by only 8% during last year survey. Overall 33% felt that policies of the UPA government are responsible for rising inflation in the country. Around 28% believed that global economic conditions are responsible for rising inflation in the country. 29% cited both these reasons for rise in inflation.
2G spectrum dents UPA's image:
Majority of respondents (57%) said that current UPA government is the most corrupt government of India post-Independence, and this figure has increased significantly as compared to previous year (45%).
54 percent of the respondents felt that 2G spectrum scam has impacted India's image as an investment destination. Only 10% of the respondents believed that home minister P Chidambaram has not played any role in 2G scam whereas 30% felt that he was equally involved as A Raja and 31% said that he was involved only to some extent.
A little more than one-third (36% ) are aware of the fact that the UPA government had to put 51% FDI in retail decision on hold due to opposition from various alliance partners and several state governments.
Modi is the best leader:
When it comes to best leader in the country, Narendra Modi 17% said he is the best leader over Manmohan Singh at 16%. Modi was preferred at number four during last year’s survey (12%).Manmohan was ranked at number 1 last year (21%). Rahul Gandhi's scores have dipped from 19% to 13% this year. Sonia Gandhi's scores are down from 14% to 9%.
Race for the next PM:
- Narendra Modi: 17
- Manmohan Singh: 16
- Rahul Gandhi: 13
- Sonia Gandhi: 09
- LK Advani: 06
- Nitish Kumar: 05
- Sushma Swaraj: 03.
- Mayawati: 03
- Mamata Banerjee: 03
- Nitin Gadkari: 02
- Mulayam Singh Yadav: 02
- Jayalalithaa: 02
- M Karunanidhi: 02
- Akhilesh Singh Yadav: 02
- Pranab Mukherjee: 01
- Sharad Pawar: 01
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