OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY: GDP Growth
Indias economic growth remained below 5 percent mark second year in a row at 4.7percent in 2013-14, but the industry is hopeful of a rebound with a stable governmentheaded by Mr. Narendra Modi who is considered pro-business.
Indias fourth quarter growth stood at 4.6 percent. Decline in manufacturing andmining output eclipsed the overall growth during the entire fiscal. As per governmentdata, the economic growth remained below 5 percent for two consecutive years after a gapof almost 25 years. Earlier from 1984-85 to 1987-88, the economic growth rate remainedbelow 5 percent. The countrys economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), had expandedat 4.5 percent in 2012-13, the slowest pace in the previous decade.
The year 2013-14 exposed Indias vulnerability to external shocks. But theslowdown of the Indian economy was also due to domestic factors. The year also revealedthat the country cannot take even a 5 percent rate of economic growth for granted and itis possible for the country to dip even below that level.
After a recovery from the global financial crisis with two successive years FY2010 and FY 2011of robust growth of 8.6 percent and 9.3 percent, respectively, theGDP growth decelerated sharply to 6.2 percent in FY 2012. The conditions deteriorated evenfurther in FY 2014, when the growth fell to a decadal low of 5 percent. The decelerationin the Indian economy in FY 2014 was on account of a slowdown in domestic demand, but moredue to a hiatus in investments by Indian companies, in the face of high borrowing costs.Delays in mandatory government approvals also hurt company cash flows, resulting installed projects. The slowdown has continued in H1 FY 2014. During Q1 FY 2014, economicgrowth stood at 4.4 percent (the slowest pace since Q4 FY 2009). The poor growthperformance is attributable to a broad-based slowdown in domestic demand and privatesector investments. Encouragingly, the trend appeared to be reversing in Q2 FY 2014, whichis the most recent data on GDP growth available at present. During the period, economyshowed some signs of recovery with a growth rate of 4.8 percent. Although significantlybelow the previous years peaks, it was driven by a robust growth in agriculturalactivity and a pickup in private sector demand and investments. During Q2 FY 2014, thegrowth in private sector demand increased to 2.2 percent (higher than 1.6 percent growthwitnessed in Q1). While the increase in private investments, which had turned negative inQ1 FY 2014, picked up to grow at 2.6 percent in Q2. The pickup in private investmentshighlights the key role played by Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI), which wasinstituted by the Government in early 2013 to fast-track the key investment projects byreducing the bottlenecks.
On a positive note, the growth in government expenditure turned negative during Q2(after expanding 10.5 percent in Q1) raising hopes of a return to fiscal discipline by thegovernment. However, the continued weakness in industrial activity and possibility ofhigher government expenditure in the last quarter of the year ahead of the elections,suggests risks to fiscal consolidation. The sluggish growth of the economy has beenaccompanied by rising inflation, especially since Q2 FY 2014. The high inflation phasethat started in Q4 of FY 2010 and persisted throughout FY 2012, showed signs of moderationtowards end- FY 2014, after remaining sticky in the range of 7 and 8 percent in the first11 months of FY 2014, which is much higher than the RBIs comfort level of 5.5-6.0percent.
But, this moderation was short-livedinflation started rising again since Q2 FY2014. The latest figure available (for November 2013) shows inflation level of 7.5percent. The current bout of inflation is primarily being driven by high food prices,especially vegetables. In fact food inflation more than doubled to 19.9 percent inNovember 2013 from 8.8 percent a year ago. The reasons behind the high food inflation inrecent months are (a) high input costs (b) rising wages, among others. The persistence ofhigh inflation, even as growth is slowing, has emerged as a major challenge for monetarypolicy.
Subdued prices of vegetables, cereals and dairy products pushed down retail inflationto a three-month low of 8.28 percent in May 2014. Retail inflation, measured on consumerprice index (CPI), was 8.59 percent in April 2014.
In February 2014, retail inflation was at 8.03 percent, followed by consecutive rise inMarch 2014 (8.31 percent) and April 2014. As per the data released by government, foodinflation also fell slightly to 9.56 percent in May 2014 against 9.66 percent in April2014.
Fiscal Health Fiscal Deficit
The fiscal deficit for 2013-14 fiscal may finally turn out to be 4.5 percent of GDP.The fiscal deficit, which is the gap between expenditure and revenue, was 4.9 percent ofGDP in 2012-13. The interim Budget for 2014 has projected the fiscal deficit for 2014-15fiscal at 4.1 percent of GDP or Rs 5.29 lakh crore.
Current Account Deficit
As per the latest data, Indias CAD sharply narrowed to 1.7 percent of the GDP orUSD 32.4 billion in 2013-14 from a record high of 4.7 percent in FY13.
For the JanuaryMarch 2014 quarter, CAD - a measure of the inflow and outflow offoreign currency stood at USD 1.2 billion or 0.2 percent of GDP, as against USD18.1 billion, or 3.6 percent of GDP in the same period of the previous fiscal, accordingto the RBI. The highest ever CAD reported in 2013-14 had led to a slew of problems,including a heavy drop in the value of the rupee, which touched an all-time low of 68.85against the US dollar last August. However the rupee has strengthened since then andrecovered up to about 58 vs. dollar since then. It is, however, under pressure again dueto the Iraq crisis.
Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment into India grew 8 percent year-on-year to USD 24.3 billion in2013-14. Foreign investment inflows more than doubled to USD 3.53 billion in March thisyear from USD 1.52 in the same month last year. The highest FDI came in services (USD 2.22billion), followed by automobiles (USD 1.51 billion), telecommunications (USD 1.3billion), pharmaceuticals (USD 1.27 billion) and construction development (USD 1.22billion) in 2013-14. Singapore led the FDI inflows into India with USD 5.98 billion,followed by Mauritius (USD 4.85 billion), the UK (USD 3.21 billion) and the Netherlands(USD 2.27 billion).
Foreign Institutional Investment
The net investments by FIIs into Indian equity markets since the beginning of 2014 havecrossed USD 5 billion over Rs 30,000 crore), while the same for debt markets also standsnear USD 5 billion (about Rs 29,000 crore)- taking the total to close to Rs 60,000 crore.This includes net investments of about Rs 1,500 crore so far in April 2014. They investedRs 20,077 crore in Indian stocks in March 2014, compared with Rs 1,404 crore in February2014 and Rs 714 crore in January 2014. The strong inflows in the recent months have takenthe cumulative net investments of FIIs into India to close to USD 197 billion, while theirinvestments in rupee terms is a bit away from Rs 10 lakh crore level.
Indias exports grew by 3.98 percent to USD 312.35 billion in FY 2013-14 whileimports dipped by 8.11 percent during the period. Imports declined to USD 450.94 billion,narrowing the trade deficit to USD 138.59 billion in the last fiscal.
In FY 2012-13, trade deficit stood at USD 190.33 billion. The overall shipments in2013-14 fell short of the target of USD 325 billion fixed by the government for theperiod.
Money, Banking and Capital Markets
The RBI, in its Annual Monetary Policy Statement on May 3,
2013, announced a reduction in the policy repo rate by 25 bps from 7.50 per cent to7.25 per cent to support growth in the face of gradual moderation of headline inflation.Apprehensions of likely tapering of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve inlate May 2013 triggered outflows of portfolio investment. Recognizing the risks to theeconomy from external developments and taking into account the evolving growth inflationdynamics, the RBI in its First Quarter Review of July 30, 2013 kept the key policy ratesunchanged.
The RBI began the process of calibrated withdrawal of the exceptional liquiditymeasures in the Mid-Quarter Review on September 20, 2013, noting the improvement in theexternal environment and also considering the number of measures put in place to narrowthe CAD and to ease its financing. The MSF rate was reduced from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 percent and the minimum daily maintenance of the CRR was reduced from 99 per cent of therequirement to 95 per cent effective from the fortnight beginning September 21, 2013.However, keeping in view the rise in inflation and the need to provide a nominal anchor tohelp preserve the internal value of the rupee, the repo rate was increased by 25 basispoints to 7.5 per cent.
Considering the evolving liquidity conditions, the RBI reduced the MSF rate from 9.5per cent to 9.0 per cent on October 7, 2013. Provision of additional liquidity throughterm repos of 7-day and 14-day tenor for a notified amount equivalent to 0.25 per cent NetDemand & Time Liabilities (NDTL) of the banking system through variable rate auctionson every Friday beginning October 11, 2013 was also announced. In the Second QuarterReview of October 29, 2013, the RBI carried forward the calibrated unwinding ofexceptional measures with the reduction of the MSF rate from 9.00 per cent to 8.75 percent. The special repo window for mutual funds, instituted in July 2013 to enable banks tomeet the liquidity requirements of mutual funds, was also wound up. With indications thatinflation is likely to remain elevated in the months ahead, the key policy repo rate wasincreased from 7.50 per cent to 7.75 per cent.
In the Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy on January 28, 2014, the repo rate washiked further to 8 per cent on account of upside risks to inflation, to anchor inflationexpectation and set the economy securely on a disinflationary path. During 2013-14, Indiancapital market, in line with global trends, was affected by the market expectationregarding the tapering of quantitative easing of the US Federal Reserve, the US Federalgovernment shutdown in October 2013 and developments in Ukraine. However, foreignInstitutional Investors (FIIs) have reposed confidence in the Indian market, whichmanifested in positive net FII investment during the last four months of 2013, reversingthe earlier trend of net outflows during June-August 2013. In 2013-14, total net FIIinvestment in the Indian markets was US$ 8.9 billion. Net FII investment duringJanuary-May 2014 is US$
15.3 billion as compared to US$ 12.1 billion in 2013. In May 2014 alone, Indian marketshave seen a net FII inflow of US$ 5.7 billion.
Performance of Indian Bond Market
Commercial paper issued by companies amounted toRs.704,721croreduringtheperiodApril2013March201414 as against Rs.598,680 croreduring the corresponding period in FY13, registering a significant increase of 17.7% overthe previous year (FY13). In the secondary market, CP rates witnessed a decline, withyields on the 180-days tenor settling at 10.07% and 360-days tenor at 9.98% as on 15thMarch14. The corresponding rates a year ago stood at 9.52% and 9.46% respectively.As on 28th March 2014, yields on 180-days and 364-days tenor declined further by 52bps(9.55%) and 35bps (9.63%) respectively.
An aggregate of Rs.56,000 crore of T-bills were raised in the month of March14 asper the auction calendar. Yields on the 91-day T-bills moved 42bps downwards between thesecond and fourth auction of the month and settled at 8.86%. Yields on 182-day T-billssettled at 8.86% from 9.12%, 26bps lower than the first auction of the month while thoseof 364- day T -bills settled at 8.89%, 14bps lower from the first auction. As per theT-bills auction calendar for H2FY14, Rs.75,000 crore of T-bills are scheduled to beauctioned in April14 (Rs.45,000crore of 91-days, Rs.12,000crore of 180-days andRs.18,000 crore of 364-days T-bills).
Performance of Mutual Fund Industry
Mutual Funds play an important role in financial services by offering diversification,liquidity and professional management at an affordable price. The Indian Mutual Fundindustry consists of 44 players. In addition to advance tax commitments adverse interestrate scenario, slowing growth in India and concerns of global recession were otherimportant reasons that led to the downfall.
Throughout the period from 2007-08 to 2013-14, investors have shown greater confidencein the debt oriented scheme as these are the regular source of income and investors inIndia are risk averse. Also, the difference in the amount invested in the debt orientedscheme has increased considerably from the year 2012-13 onwards.
The foreign institutional investors have always favored investment in equity marketover the debt market but whenever there is crisis in the economy then they tend to preferdebt market over the equity market. As we can see in the above figure that in 2008,investment in the equity market was negative where as in case of bond it was low butpositive but as the economy started recovering, the investment in equity market tend tohigher than the investment in the debt market.
Performance of Primary Market
Indian firms raised a staggering Rs 71,300 crore in 2013-14 with debt market emergingas the most preferred route for garnering capital to meet business needs. According to areport by Prime Database, they mopped-up Rs 71,370 crore through public markets during thefinancial year ending, showing a surge of 13 per cent from Rs 63,056 crore garnered2012-13.
Out of the Rs 71,370 crore garnered, Rs 41,989 crore was raked in through bonds and theremaining Rs 29,381 crore via equity segment. The bond market was initially monopolized byNBFCs but towards the later part of the fiscal, investors also saw tax free bonds beingissued from state-owned firms.
The funds were raised through various routes such as initial public offer (IPO),follow-on public offer (FPO), offer-for-sale (OFS), Institutional Placement Programme(IPP) Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) and bonds. The funds were raised primarilyfor business expansion and meeting capital requirements. While there was a lull in theprimary market where firms raised funds through the sale of shares via IPOs and FPOs, itwas the bond instrument that was used the most in 2013-14.
There was a lull in the equity market in the current fiscal as there was only one bigticket IPO and two FPOs during 2013-14. Just Dial, search engine service provider, was theonly big IPO that raised Rs 919 crore. Power Grid FPO raised Rs 6,959 crore, whileEngineers India garnered Rs 497 crore. In addition, there were 37 SME (Small and MediumEnterprise) IPOs which raised Rs 286 crore. Haldea said there was some negative sentimentbecause IPOs of Scotts Garments and Loha Ispaat had to be refunded, while 21 companiesholding approvals of market regulator SEBI to raise Rs 6,673 crore were allowed it tolapse.
A total of Rs 6,859 crore was raised via OFS mechanism and another Rs 4,459 crorethrough IPP route. These two routes were allowed by SEBI primarily to help promoters ofalready-listed companies comply with the regulators 25 per cent minimum publicshareholding norm.
Performance Secondary Market
Sensex and Nifty are the barometer of Indias feel-good factor was at 21,000 marksprior to Global Financial Crisis followed Great recession worldwide. However, in recentyears both the index witnessed volatile trends due to global and domestic factors.
Table: Trend of Market Capitalization, P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio in NSE for 2007-2013
Market capitalization is the total dollar value of a companys outstanding shares.The BSE shows increasing trend of market capitalization except the year 2008-09 in whicheconomy was in recession. P/B ratio is used to compare a stocks market value to itsbook value. It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by thelatest quarters book value per share P/E ratio is the valuation ratio of acompanys current share price compared to its per share earnings. Both P/E ratio andP/B ratio shows declining trend throughout the period of 2011-12 to 2013-14. The NSE showsfl uctuating trend of market capitalization. The P/E ratio is range bound throughout theperiod of 2011-13. The P/B ratio is increasing in 2012 where as it shows declining trendin 2013.
There has been a return to volumes and trading by retail participants. From dwindlingvolumes in the cash segment of a mere 7% in FY 14, the numbers are looking North and itcan only augur well for the for the broking fraternity. Also, the increase in the quotedprices of the list scrips translates into higher revenue.
The FIIs and DIIs are also actively participating in this post-election rally. Marketsseem to be in a multi-year bull run. At the industry level, Equity Average Daily Volumes(ADV) rose by ~22% to Rs. 511 trillion in FY14 buoyed by the continued rise in volumes ofoption trading, which accounted for ~78% of the overall market volumes in FY14 (~76% inFY13). Despite the modest rise of 2% in FY14 after the last few years of steady decline,the proportion of cash volumes to overall traded equity volumes continued to decline to6.5% as compared to 7.8% in FY13. On the other hand, futures volumes rose by ~19% in FY14while options volumes displayed a strong growth of 25% over the same period. Anecdotalevidence suggests that more and more non-institutional investors have been taking a likingto trading in options. A broad based investor segment could ensure that the dominant shareof options volumes to total equity volumes continues over the medium term.
It is expected that the broking revenues will grow by ~3% YoY and the retailparticipation will be evident this time around. Large broking houses which had opted outof retail are slowly getting back into it or actively considering doing so. Its a"winner takes all" market.
AN OVERVIEW OF KSL:
As a corporate house, the overall operations of Khandwala Securities Limited includeInvestment Banking, Institutional Broking, Private Client Broking and Investment Advisoryservices.
The salient features of the Companys performance:- Total Revenues of Rs. 438.18Lakhs Net Profit / Loss of Rs. (27 Lakhs) Earning Per Share (EPS) of Rs. (0.23) SegmentHighlights FY13 over FY12:
|Segment||Revenue Financial Year ended on 31st March 2014||Revenue Financial Year ended on 31st March 2013|
|Income from Capital||1.69||26.96|
|Debt/Equity (Loans/Shareholders Funds)||0.10||0.13|
|Book Value (Rs.)||23.05||23.29|
Empanelment during the Year
Your Company constantly endeavors to increase its market share with large Banks,financial institutions, and insurance companies on a sustained basis in order to increasethe depth and width of its market offerings. With continuous effort backed by superiorExecution skills and Research support, your Company is able to add significant value toits esteemed clients on a long-term basis.
Your Company shall focus more towards high end Research with further enhancement of itsteam of cutting-edge research specialists during the year and will make higher allocationof funds towards building such talents on a continuous basis, as has been our objectivetill now.
The Brokerage services of your Company include equity and debt broking and aresupported by a strong research platform.
Income received for brokerage services, had accounted for approximately 60% of ourtotal revenues at Rs. 438.18 Lakhs for the year ended March 31, 2014.
Your Company also trades in the currency derivatives segment of National StockExchange.
Capital Market Operations:
The equity capital markets team focuses on structuring and executing diverse equitycapital raising transactions in the public and private markets for our clients. Productsin this segment include IPOs, follow-on offerings, rights offerings, private placement,ADR offerings, GDR offerings, QIP transactions and convertible offerings, etc. for bothlisted and unlisted entities. As an Investment Banking firm, it has always been ourendeavor to structure and put together transaction structures that build long term,sustainable value for both the borrower and lender of funds in the equity markets. Thisapproach, though having proved its mettle during the stages of market tightness, has beensomewhat considered as a weakness by industry participants, resulting in us not being ableto successfully convince Bloomberg on its benefits. This has led to situations wherein KSLhas had to either withdraw from certain mandates or had to face resistance from IndianCorporates in awarding their fund raising mandates to us from the secondary markets.
This is despite the management of these corporate houses acknowledging the deepknowledge and understanding of the micro and macro economy factors including the futuregrowth prospects in specific industry, and the sustainable long term valuation parameters.We always believe that in order for market to value and reward its participants, it isimportant for both the Promoter Groups and the Merchant Bankers to design appropriate andsustainable valuation models such that it remains consistent with the overall corporateperformance and at the same point in time is able to ride both the good and the bad times.Investment Baking and Advisory Group is putting their best endeavors on reviving some ofthe lost or delayed transactions, and are confident that in improved market sentiment samecan be executed efficiently.
Institutional Equity and Derivatives brokerage business of the Company contributed7.60% of the consolidated revenue during this financial year. The Companys revenueof Rs. 438.18 Lakhs for the year showed a marginal decrease of approximately 0.45% overthe previous year corresponding to a comparable increase in volume. However it isencouraging to note that we marginally increased our market share. The number of clientswho traded and the number of transactions were also good.
The institutional equities business comprises institutional equity sales, sales-tradingand research. We differentiate ourselves based on our cutting-edge research focus, whichaids our execution capabilities across our sales and trading platforms. We provide equityand derivatives sales and trading services to a large and diversified base ofinstitutional investors, including FIIs and domestic institutional investors. As atpresent, we have over 24 institutional investors actively transacting with us on acontinuous basis.
The category wise contribution from the Institutional Dealing Desk to our revenues hasbeen mentioned in the table below which shows a decrease of 78% during the Fiscal Year2013-14 over previous financial year 2012-13.
|Category||Brokerage Revenue during||Brokerage Revenue during||Brokerage Revenue during||Brokerage Revenue during|
|FY 13-14||FY 12-13||FY 11-12||FY 10-11|
Private Client Broking:
Our private client broking services are targeted at High Net worth Individuals (HNIs)who actively invest and trade in equity markets and seek priority service with Bloombergresearch and advisory support. Our approach is to provide advisory-based brokerageservices with a strong emphasis on research, and to offer our clients value-added servicesusually reserved for institutional clients. KSL with its concentrated efforts in equitybroking business, and as future strategy to build high volumes and revenues couldsuccessfully add a good number of Trading Accounts for various segments (Cash, Derivativesand Currency Futures) during the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March2014. Your Company is confident that with its high degree of execution skills and servicessupport, besides with its high end research will grow to new heights in its revenues inthe coming years.
Portfolio Management Services:
The Portfolio Management Segment is bound to grow and offer immense business potentialfor financial advisory services. The NRI community is the key market segment. SuccessfulNRI business owners and professionals are of great interest to Portfolio managementinstitutions. KSL has identified this rapidly growing segments need for specificproducts and services and has created practice models and advisory teams that specializein servicing NRIs. Our service offerings include providing HNIs with investment advisory,planning and asset deployment advice, asset allocation and the distribution of a widerange of products. Our primary focus is on understanding each clients financialprofile, including tolerance for risk, capital growth expectations, current financialposition and income requirements in order to create comprehensive and tailored investmentstrategies. Our Portfolio Management services have increased our clients access toand use of our financial products and services Your Company is confident to garner muchlarger assets under management under the PMS division compared to last year and could beable to clearly demonstrate its core expertise to maximize the value under PMS, even underadverse market situation.
Merger and Acquisition Advisory:
Our merger and acquisition team provides clients strategic and financial advice aidingthem in achieving their objectives through mergers, acquisitions, takeovers, tenderoffers, divestments, spin offs, restructuring, Joint Ventures and strategic alliances anddemergers.
Our services encompass strategy formulation, identification of buyer or targets,valuation, negotiation and bidding, capital structuring, transaction structuring andexecution.
Private Equity investments in India are still dominated by funds investing out of theirglobal funds. Given the global risk aversion, the allocations from these funds may slip.
Corporate Advisory Business:
The Corporate advisory business of the Company includes equity capital marketstransaction execution, mergers and acquisitions advisory and capital raising advisory andtransaction execution relating to structured finance, real estate and infrastructure.During the period the total Income from advisory services was Rs. 1.51 crores.
Our institutional equities business is supported by an experienced and dedicated teamof analysts in fundamental, technical and alternative investment research. Our researchinitiatives are driven by committed professionals, management graduates, CharteredAccountants and Engineers having combined experience of several decades. Besidesconventional tools, including quantitative analytical techniques and models to identifyshort and medium-term investment opportunities. Our research team maintains an updateddatabase on, and tracks regularly, various factors impacting economy, industry andcompanies. The trends are analyzed using data both on macro and micro level. Variousresearch products such as Market Today, Market Weekly, Market Technicals, India Strategy,Model Portfolio, Eco Update, InSight, Company/Sector reports/updates and others are sentto esteemed clients on a regular basis. These reports are supplemented by day-to-daymarket information by way of market alerts and impact analysis. Strength of our researchcapability lies in our ability to identify emerging investment themes and spot winnersahead of time. Our research reports, widely acknowledged by domestic and internationalprint and electronic media, are rated among the leading domestic brokerage houses and haveearned royalties from international data services providers in foreign exchange.
Shreedhar Parande , Chairman
Paresh J Khandwala , Managing Director & CEO
Rohit Chand , Director
Kalpen Shukla , Director
Company Head Office / Quarters:
Ground Floor Vikas Building,
Green Street Fort,
Phone : Maharashtra-91-22-22642300/40767373 / Maharashtra-
Fax : Maharashtra-91-22-22615172/40767377 / Maharashtra-
E-mail : email@example.com
Web : http://www.kslindia.com
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