Summary
India is the second
largest manufacturer of two-wheelers in the world. It stands next
only to Japan and China in terms of the number of two-wheelers
produced and sold respectively. India is one of the very few
countries manufacturing three wheelers in the world. It is the
world's largest manufacturer and seller of
three-wheelers.
The Indian
two-wheelers industry can be broadly classified into three major
segments -- scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. The domestic two
wheeler sales of 3.778mn in FY2000 constitutes scooter sales of
33.4% (39% in FY99), motorcycles 47.7% (41% in FY99) and mopeds
17.6% (20% in FY99). The motorcycle segment has gradually increased
its presence from 27% in FY92 to 47.7% in FY2000 mainly at the
expense of the scooter and, to some extent, the moped
segment.
The demand for
scooters is on the wane and witnessed a 10%yoy fall in FY2000. With
the gradual shift in demand, sales in the scooter segment is
expected to fall further, while on the other side motorcycle and
scooterette segments will record continued growth in the future.
This will translate into a demand fall of around 20% in scooters
while sales of scooterettes will rise by around 30% in FY01. With
the ongoing expansion from Bajaj Auto Ltd, LML and TVS Suzuki, the
capacity in the sector will increase form 2mn in FY2000 to 2.15mn
by FY01, leading to a surplus situation.
We expect the
motorcycle segment to continue to grow at an average of 20% in
FY01. This will increase demand for motorcycles from 1.796mn in
FY2000 to 2.15mn in FY01. The supply of motorcycles as per the
present trend will increase from 2.08mn in FY2000 to 2.38mn in
FY01. The segment will be witnessing several new entrants in FY01,
mainly in the four-stroke subsegment. This will lead to an over
supply situation and increase the competition in the Japanese
segment.
We expect the demand
for mopeds to grow at a modest rate of 5% in FY01. The demand for
mopeds will increase from 0.726mn in FY2000 to 0.762mn in FY01. The
moped production capacity is expected to increase from 1.17mn in
FY2000 to 1.2mn in FY01.
