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   India Infoline Sector Reports Wed, 31-Dec-2003 10:17:37 IST (GMT+5:30)
   Automobile - Two Wheelers

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Industry Structure

The Indian two-wheelers Industry can be broadly classified as scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. The domestic two wheeler sales of 3.4mn in FY99 is constituted by these segments as shown below.

Year

Scooter

Motorcycle

Moped

Total

Growth %

FY92

769,955

428,118

408,022

1,606,095

-

FY93

709,725

379,060

414,567

1,503,352

(6.40)

FY94

840,173

472,582

457,471

1,770,226

17.75

FY95

1,033,524

652,012

523,700

2,209,236

24.80

FY96

1,223,425

809,527

627,079

2,660,031

20.41

FY97

1,301,051

978,682

683,756

2,963,489

11.41

FY98

1,262,699

1,131,314

648,842

3,042,855

2.68

FY99

1,325,868

1,395,657

681,902

3,403,427

11.85

FY2000

1,253,969

1,796,734

726,075

3,776,778

10.97

Source : SIAM

In the last six years, the domestic two-wheeler industry has seen structural changes. This can be seen from the change in composition of two-wheeler sales, where the motorcycles have consistently gained market share from the scooter and moped segments to corner a share of 41% of total two-wheeler sales. This trend is expected to continue in the next two years till the four-stroke scooters make their presence felt in the segment. The table below gives an idea about the strides made by the motorcycle segment in the last six years. 

(in %)

Scooter

Motorcycle

Moped

FY93

47.2

25.2

27.6

FY94

47.5

26.7

25.8

FY95

46.8

29.5

23.7

FY96

46.0

30.4

23.6

FY97

43.9

33.0

23.1

FY98

41.5

37.2

21.3

FY99

39.0

41.0

20.0

FY2000

33.2

47.6

19.2

Source : SIAM

The scooter market is dominated by 150cc vehicles from Bajaj Auto and LML, with the rest being served by 100cc variometric scooters from Kinetic Honda.

For scooters, northern India is the major market contributing nearly 46% of the total scooter sales. Western and southern India take up second and third position with 27.5% and 15.7% respectively.

For our calculations we consider TVS Scooty sales as part of scooter sales as given by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

The Indian motorcycle industry can be broadly categorized in to Indian motorcycles and Indo-Japanese motorcycles. The Indo-Japanese motorcycle segment is dominated by Hero group, Bajaj and Escorts in collaboration with Japanese vehicle manufacturers Honda, Kawasaki and Yamaha respectively. The Indian motorcycles segment is dominated by Bajaj (M80), Escorts and Royal Enfield.

In motorcycles sales, western region leads with a market share of 40% of the total motorcycle sales. South and north regions come second and third with a market share of 27.5% and 17.4% of total motorcycle sales respectively.

For mopeds southern and western regions of India are the major contributors with nearly 52% and 28% of the over all moped sales. Looking at the population of moped sales in south it appears that the sale of mopeds has reached stagnation.

Western and southern region lead in three-wheeler sales with a contribution of 42% and 35.8% of total three-wheeler sales respectively.

In terms of two-wheeler vehicle population, Maharashtra stands first with a population of 2.96mn vehicles and Gujarat stands second with 2.64mn vehicles as on March 31st 1997. Tamil Nadu is the third largest state with 2.45mn two-wheeler population.

In terms of three-wheeler vehicle population Maharashtra stands first with a population of 0.39mn and Gujarat in the second place with 0.22mn as on March 31st 1997.

Penetration Of Two-Wheelers

On a base of around 28mn vehicles on Indian roads and around 175mn households, there were only 160 motorized two-wheelers per thousand households in FY98. This compares poorly with countries like Thailand where it is around 600 per thousand households. Also with a household size of 5.5 persons and more than one wage earner in about 60% of the households, the potential for a second vehicle demand is also good.

The NCAER in its latest report on market demographics has clearly indicated that post-liberalization (ie FY92 to FY96) Indian households have graduated to higher income groups as can be seen in the table below.

Distribution Of Households In %age

Annual income

Income group

FY86

FY96

(Rs at FY96 prices)

 

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

<=25,000

Low

42.1

73.6

65.2

27.9

57.2

48.9

25,001 - 50,000

Low Middle

35.8

21.4

25.2

34.9

29.0

30.7

50,001 - 77,000

Middle

15.2

4.0

6.9

20.3

8.6

11.9

77,001 - 106,000

Upper Middle

3.9

0.7

1.5

9.6

3.1

5.0

> 106,000

High

3.1

0.3

1.1

7.3

2.0

3.5

Growth In Income Groups (%) In Pre And Post Reform Period

Income group

FY86 to FY89

FY93 to FY96

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

Low

0.93

-0.20

-0.01

-7.03

-3.03

-3.72

Low Middle

3.34

4.91

4.33

5.46

10.20

8.59

Middle

8.53

17.82

12.72

11.96

3.11

7.01

Upper Middle

18.52

16.39

17.83

11.90

12.25

12.06

High

9.57

13.90

10.65

18.22

15.68

17.14

Total

4.14

2.04

2.61

3.50

1.44

2.01

Source: NCAER

As seen from the above tables, the number of households in the low income group has fallen since FY86 and has been more pronounced in the post-reform period. On the other hand, the number of households in the middle, upper middle and high income groups, which form the consumer base for two wheelers, have increased. Their share of the total number of households has increased from 10.6% in FY88 to 20.5% in FY96. The rising income profile has, however, been more pronounced in the urban areas as average annual growth in industry has surpassed that of agriculture in the period FY93 to FY96.  

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