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| India Infoline Sector Reports | Wed, 18-Feb-2004 16:50:28 IST (GMT+5:30) | |
| Power | ||
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Capacity, Generation and Consumption Patterns Capacity India's power generation capacity stood at around 96600MW in FY00. The major portion of the capacity has been set up by SEBs (58%). This was followed by centrally controlled plants which contributed 34%. IPPs have started contributing to installed capacity only as recently as 1996 when the first IPP, GVK's 216MW power plant at Jegurupadu in Andhra Pradesh was commissioned. The installed capacity is distributed as follows:
Although the CEA had initially projected a shortfall of 150000MW in 15 years and therefore a capacity addition target of 10000MW every year, the actual capacity addition has been far short of targets. The capacity addition in the last five years was as follows
Interestingly, of the total capacity added last year, 49% was added by the states, which indicates that despite weak financial health, states have been the largest contributors to incremental capacity. Central plants contributed 44%, and the private sector contributed a measly 4%. Revised Capacity Addition Targets The CEA has recently revised the capacity addition target to 100000MW in the next 15 years from 150000MW earlier. This implies an annual addition of 8500MW. This revision is under the assumptions that a National Grid would be in place, T&D losses would be minimised and R&M of plants would be carried out at a vigourous pace, which would together take care of 25000MW of capacity. But at the present rate of capacity addition, even 8500MW looks like a tall target. Generation The gross generation of power in FY00 stood at 477492mn units. The generation, as in the case of installed capacity, was skewed in favour of SEBs.
Plant Load Factor The average PLF in India was 56.4% in FY00. Low PLFs are partly due to inadequate investment in R&M of power plants. Consumption The All-India Energy consumption in FY99 was 313bn KWH. The electricity consumption over the past five years has grown at a CAGR of 7.2%. The elasticity of electricity consumption to GDP growth has been estimated at 1.1X. The consumption in the past five years has been as follows
Sector-wise consumption patterns (FY99)
Industry remains the biggest consumer of electricity and its share in the overall electricity consumption has gone up from 32.6% in 1997-98 to 33.6% in 1998-99. It is closely followed by agriculture and then domestic consumption. T&D Losses Transmission & Distribution (T&D) losses arise on 2 counts:
The T&D losses in India have been as follows:
The high incidence of T&D losses is partly responsible for huge power shortages and distorted tariffs. Shortages
While the energy
shortfall has reduced over the last few years, peak shortfall
continues to rise. However, the reduction in energy shortfall has
been at a time when industry was going through recessionary
conditions. It is expected that with a pick up in industrial
activity, the energy shortages are likely to rise in the next few
years.
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