Indian supply
scenario
Indian petrochemical
industry at present is highly concentrated. There are only three
major players - Reliance Industries, Nocil and IPCL. All three
companies have fully integrated plants. Recently GAIL has
commissioned an unit with a cracker capacity of 300,000 tpa. The
other new player, Haldia Petrochemical Corporation (HPC) is
expected to initiate production by FY2000.
After the
liberalization, new capacities led by Reliance have spurted up in
the domestic industry. In last three years, capacities of polymers
have recorded a 26% CAGR. Production of polymers have also recorded
more than 18% CAGR in the last three years.
Installed Capacities
(000 ton)
|
Year
|
LDPE/LLDPE
|
HDPE
|
PP
|
PVC
|
|
1994-95
|
185
|
345
|
115
|
540
|
|
1995-96
|
185
|
345
|
115
|
540
|
|
1996-97
|
185
|
410
|
540
|
810
|
|
1997-98
|
460
|
490
|
590
|
810
|
Installed capacities
of polymers is expected to increase by 70% in FY2000, from the FY98
levels.
Estimated capacities
of polymers by FY2000 (000 ton)
|
LDPE
|
LLDPE
|
HDPE
|
PP
|
PVC
|
PS
|
|
IPCL
|
160
|
190
|
120
|
165
|
205
|
|
|
Reliance
|
|
400
|
|
750
|
420
|
|
|
Nocil
|
|
|
170
|
180
|
25
|
|
|
GAIL
|
|
160
|
100
|
|
|
40
|
|
HPC
|
|
100
|
120
|
150
|
|
75
|
|
Others
|
35
|
|
|
|
283
|
146
|
|
TOTAL
|
195
|
850
|
510
|
1,245
|
933
|
261
|
With the increase in
these capacities, India is expected to have excess production of
all the polymers. From the table below we can see that, HDPE has
deficit, but because of the swing in HDPE - LLDPE, there will still
be surplus in the domestic market.
Demand - Supply
forecast for FY2000 (000 ton)
|
LDPE/LLDPE
|
HDPE
|
PP
|
PVC
|
|
Capacity
|
1045
|
510
|
1,245
|
933
|
|
Production (cap.uti.
assumed 90%)
|
941
|
459
|
1,121
|
840
|
|
Demand (growth
assumed at 14%)
|
598
|
637
|
767
|
819
|
|
Surplus /
(Deficit)
|
343
|
(178)
|
354
|
21
|
