Bottom Strategy pays

This is an excerpt from an article written for Money Today magazine on Markets.

October 07, 2009 5:16 IST | India Infoline News Service
When you just can't flut­ter atop, nor do you stutter at rock bottom, bottom-up keeps the clutter away." This is the ideal buying mantra in this market. The transient fiscal supply is clearly the result of a convalescence dose by world gov­ernments, not a topline boost. The market momentum in India shows no signs of a dra­matic swing.

Liquidity notwithstanding, Indian equi­ties seem to have chosen to discount some prominent national concerns—poor mon­soons, likely monetary control, bleak fiscal deficit situation, among others. This proba­bly stems from the positive rural demand and government support. The ongoing rural employment guarantee scheme, farm waivers, clearness allowance hike and high­er minimum support prices augur well for rural- and middle-class purchasing power. In turn, it has helped strengthen market confidence with an eye on the future.

The government's speed in declaring stimulus packages and the RBI's proactive response to counter the fiscal crisis have paved the way for a positive economy. Two patterns are becoming evident for the medi­um term. First, money is likely to move from overbought sectors to those that have not seen a recent rally. Second, non-index stocks are poised to perform better than the Nifty and Sensex companies. A correction in the indices seems imminent. Investors would do well to adopt a bottom-up approach while buying.

Infrastructure looks set to be the biggest sector to win government support. While the fiscal situation may not permit big spends, our channel checks show that public-private partnerships are here to stay.

I am equally bullish on the auto industry. It did well during the downturn and has held up reasonably even amid the bad news of poor monsoons. However, valuations seem rich. A prudent strategy would be to choose auto ancillary players focused on the domestic market.

A word of caution. Liquidity is the life blood of this market. If it's sucked out sud­denly, the ensuing fall could be steep. For now, this doesn't seem likely as China and India continue to remain pet investments for foreign funds.

Source: Money Today

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