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Technotracks for the week starting April 12

Nifty closed the week at 5361 on Friday closing about 1 percent up for the day. The weekly close is also just one percent up.Looks like we did nothing-which is far from the truth - we actually nearly scaled 5400-found strong resistance and selling pressure - created a new support level at around 5360-broke that to test 5298 supports, held that level-and then on global cues came back on Friday to close over the 5360 support zone. That is a strong consolidation pattern formation. Stocks are moving from weaker hands to stronger hands .Sector rotation taking place so despite IT index being half a percent down, autos, consumer durables and power held fort.

April 12, 2010 10:38 IST | India Infoline News Service
For the coming week following are the cues for nifty. The resistance which everyone is looking out for is 5400-a close above that will bring in momentum-shorts in the system will come in to close their positions which will take the market beyond the 5422 levels –we shall then get into a new zone of 5360-5480.Results season has begun so crossing 5480-5500 will depend more on the fundamentals for the near future. There is lot of skepticism in the market for moving higher-we are trading at 17+ forward earnings but then  the market rewards u for the uncertainty u assume-once the clouds disperse and there is clarity about growth and stability in the markets the best moves would have be past us –just like the the election situation last year. A technical view that dips should be bought into.4950 now will be a strong support and 5480 the strong resistance.

Sectoral view

In autos we saw Tata motors giving a breakout over 800 on Friday - the stock is poised towards 840 and higher and all dips should be bought into - maruti on the other hand continues to languish but is on support zone and can give a 3-5 % bounce anytime .Bajaj auto steady and can consolidate and give a fresh move soon .we saw some good moves in tvs motors – closing at 87 looking good for 94.Ashok Leyland on the other hand faced selling pressure

Banking - SBI saw buying taking it up to 2150 levels where it faced resistance and retraced to close at 2106-it is not the strongest scrip in the financial sector-fresh moves came in idfc and some small banks like Karnataka bank - both looking good – prefer IDFC – it will attempt the 179 resistance level-beyond that there is traction for 200plus levels that it traded in 2008. BOB has consolidated for 5 sessions and poised to start moving to 690+ levels - PNB on the other hand has closed three days lower and is close to 1006 supports-that should be a good level to buy into. In the private banking space axis consolidating @1180 for 8 sessions and can now anytime breakout for the 1215 levels. HDFC Bank finding resistance around the 1965 levels –a breakout over that is awaited. Yes Bank staying over 262 is a positive indicator for a move to 275 levels.  LIC over 916 can lead it to 950.
 
 
Metals saw a mixed week - Sesa gave up  badly on some bad cues from china and closed mildly below 10dma with negative candlestick patterns – next support levels are 460 and if that breaks 440.Sterlite on the other hand looking very promising –some resistance at 904 and then can attempt the 52 week high of close to 930.Hindalco fell from new highs but the pattern on Friday is positive for a couple of percentage points up. Tata Steel consolidating in the late 670s, support at 661 and resistance only near the 52 week high of 730+.Hind Zinc pattern indicating 1300

Pharma - Dr reddy looking weak-if it breaks 1240 can test 1180 ,strength in piramal for 500 levels, a new midcap Alembic looks  good at 53 for a move to 58. Lupin consolidating - ss at 1610 and rr at 1730

Infra and Industrials - Nagarjuna attempted the 184 resistance given last week and consolidating now, BHEL strong and a good short term and long term buy for a ten percent move, RIIL looking good if it crosses 916 for 975 levels. Punj Lloyd seeing some buying and on a move above 187 will bring momentum. For the day HCC seems to be the pick-at 138 for crossing 141 and moving to 146 with a  sl of  136. Jai Corp looking good for 310 levels

Cement - Grasim, Prism still have some steam left - would however play jp associates for a tgt of 157-a positional call already open

IT - consolidating and waiting for infy results - however in midcaps Geometric, Rolta and Kpit looking good technically

Hotels - all strong but Indian hotels the strongest-on crossing 108 will try for 123 in the next 2 months

Oil and gas - Reliance is the leader and after attempting 1149 it  consolidated downward and has a strong pattern to move beyond 1140 and go above 1200 in the next 10 weeks. Petronet ,MRPL and GSPL also look good for a five percent further move.

That’s it for this Monday

Trade safe with stop losses. Have a good week



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