Ashok Leyland Q4FY18E result expectation

Management commentary on growth expected for CV sector, on the whole, will be keenly watched.

May 17, 2018 12:05 IST India Infoline News Service

Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL) Expectations (Standalone) for Q4FY18E*:
  • Revenue: Rs8,854cr; up 34% yoy, led by 23% yoy volume growth and 9% yoy realization growth. ALL is expected to benefit from better net pricing; a combination of lower discounts and BS-IV related increase in product prices. Volume growth for the quarter was 15% yoy for M&HCVs and 59% yoy for LCVs as the overloading ban got implemented in more states.
  • EBITDA: Rs1,065cr; up 46% yoy
  • EBITDA margin: 12%; expansion of 99bps yoy; strong volume to lead to improved operating leverage.
  • PAT (before EO): Rs638cr; down 21% yoy. Lower PAT since bottom-line in Q4FY17 was aided by a one-time tax credit on the acquisition of Hinduja Foundries.
*Numbers based on consensus estimates

Q3FY18 performance highlights:
  • Revenue: Rs7,113cr; up 61% yoy, led by a strong 42% yoy volume growth and 13% yoy realization growth. Demand for higher tonnage vehicles pushed up realizations for the company.
  • EBITDA: Rs1,065cr; up 74% yoy;
  • EBITDA margin: 11.1%; expansion of 83bps yoy, led by lower operating and employee expenses (as % of sales).
  • PAT (before EO): Rs450cr; up 80% yoy
Remarks:
  • Management commentary on growth expected for CV sector, on the whole, will be keenly watched.
  • Capex guidance for FY19.
  • Raw material trajectory and company’s strategy to offset the same through price hike or absorbing the input cost escalation.

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