Various weather agencies including Skymet Weather had predicted above normal Monsoon for 2016. The Southwest Monsoon commenced in June, a little late, and ended with slightly below normal rainfall at 89% of the long period average (LPA) for the month, against Skymet Weather’s forecast of 87%.
Monsoon rains in July performed better, as the actual rains in the month settled at 107% of LPA, which was almost perfectly in sync with the Skymet Weather’s forecast of 108%.
Rains picked up pace further as we entered into August. As a result, Monsoon progressed steadily in the initial 10 days. The cumulative countrywide Monsoon rains had reached 103% in the first week and maintained the surplus status till August 12.
Thereafter, rains reduced considerably along the West Coast and Peninsular India, leading to gradual decrease in rain surplus. As on August 18, the cumulative countrywide Monsoon rain stands at 100%.
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
However, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has not influenced the Monsoon 2016 so far, as it has been negative since the beginning of the season. Now, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was earlier travelling in the favourable zone, is no longer supportive for Monsoon rains. The West Coast remains inactive in absence of significant weather systems. Besides this, Monsoon is also subdued over South Peninsula along with Maharashtra. Though back to back weather systems in North Bay of Bengal have been giving heavy rains over East and Central India, Monsoon over remaining parts of the country has been subdued.
As a result, the actual rainfall is not living up to the daily rainfall figures. Further, we do not expect much change in weather conditions for the rest of the month. Hence Skymet Weather predicts that August is expected to end with 92% of LPA for the month. However, September is going to be much better and we expect it to end at 111% of LPA. In other words, Monsoon will remain normal this year, with about 100% rains (error margin of +/-4%) of LPA of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
According to our CEO, Jatin Singh, “As of now, the IOD remains negative and the MJO is no longer prevailing in the favorable zone for India. El Niño has finally entered the neutral phase but we still have to wait for few more months to see if it may turn into La Niña.” Considering the present scenario, Skymet Weather has updated the forecast for Monsoon 2016.
-: 92% of LPA (LPA = 261 mm) • 75% chance of normal • 25% chance of below normal
: 111% of LPA (LPA = 173 mm) • 60% chance of normal • 25% chance of above normal • 15% chance of below normal