Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry in India, after witnessing a 28.4% CAGR over the past four years, is now seeing multiple headwinds in the form of poor economic growth, high interest rates, mining ban, falling domestic and international trade and low capital formation. With excess tonnage capacity in the system and bleak economic outlook we expect CV volumes, particularly M&HCV, to be under pressure. LCV volume growth is also expected to moderate on a high base created with a 32% CAGR over the past four years.
With robust long term outlook for domestic CV industry, foreign players such as Daimler, Volvo, Navistar are establishing their presence in India. Incumbents are now feeling the heat of competition and have resorted to steep discounts. Financiers for CV purchases have seen a rise in their gross NPA levels leading to tightening of financing norms such as lowering of loan to value ratio. Fleet operators are reeling under the pressure of declining freight rates and increased waiting period for return trips.
Ashok Leyland (AL) gained market share across segments in YTD FY13 on the back of relatively lesser decline in southern market. However, we believe, this would not sustain as increasing competition would eventually eat into the market share. For M&HCV, we expect AL to report a decline of 4% in FY13. AL, with its Dost model, has made its presence felt in the LCV segment which has been outperforming in the CV industry. However, lower margins on Dost will hurt profitability of the company. We estimate that PAT would decline by 21% in FY13.
With Rs4.5bn planned spend on capex and Rs3.5bn infusion in JVs and subsidiaries, cash-flows will remain strained. Leverage on the books is also expected to rise. Although, the stock price has corrected by 33% since the beginning of FY13, current valuation multiples continue to be higher than historic average and previous downcycle. We downgrade our rating from Market Performer to SELL with a revised 9-month price target of Rs18.5.
|Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m)||FY11||FY12||FY13E||FY14E|
|yoy growth (%)||54.3||14.9||9.1||10.2|
|yoy growth (%)||49.0||(10.3)||(20.9)||23.0|
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