Hero Motocorp (Q1 FY13)

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai |

Hero Motocorp Ltd (HML) reported 10% yoy increase in revenues to Rs62,473mn.

CMP Rs2,104, Target Rs2,367, Upside 12.5%
  • Revenues rise 10% yoy due to 7.4% yoy growth in volumes and 2.4% higher realizations
  • OPM at 15% was lower than expectations on the back of lower than expected realizations
  • Higher production from Uttaranchal plant results in lower effective tax rate
  • Volume growth has slowed down, but we expect Hero Motocorp to report higher than industry growth
  • Margins are expected to recover on the back of better vendor sourcing and fixed nature of royalty payments
  • Maintain BUY rating with a revised 9-month price target of Rs2,367
Result table
(Rs m) Q1 FY13 Q1 FY12 % yoy Q4 FY12 % qoq
Volume 1,642,292 1,529,577 7.4 1,572,027 4.5
Realisation 38,040 37,146 2.4 38,389 (0.9)
Net sales 62,473 56,817 10.0 60,349 3.5
Material costs (46,026) (42,448) 8.4 (44,183) 4.2
Personnel costs (2,046) (1,645) 24.4 (1,923) 6.4
Other overheads (5,032) (4,443) 13.3 (4,991) 0.8
Operating profit 9,369 8,281 13.1 9,253 1.3
OPM (%) 15.0 14.6 42 bps 15.3 (34) bps
Depreciation (3,035) (2,398) 26.6 (2,804) 8.2
Interest (29) (125) (76.6) (29) -
Other income 1,044 938 11.4 1,050 (0.5)
PBT 7,349 6,696 9.8 7,469 (1.6)
Tax (1,194) (1,117) 6.9 (1,433) (16.7)
Effective tax rate (%) 16.3 16.7   19.2  
Reported PAT 6,155 5,579 10.3 6,036 2.0
PAT margin (%) 9.9 9.8 3 bps 10.0 (15) bps
Ann. EPS (Rs) 123.3 111.7 10.3 120.9 2.0
Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Net sales increase by 10% yoy

Hero Motocorp Ltd (HML) reported 10% yoy increase in revenues to Rs62,473mn. Growth was driven by 7.4% yoy increase in volumes and 2.4% yoy higher realizations. Growth in realizations, which were lower than our expectations, was on account of product mix shifting towards the <125cc category. Price hike implemented in May 2012 helped offset the impact to some extent. On sequential basis, revenues for Q1 FY13 grew 3.5% mainly driven by 4.5% rise in volumes, which was offset by 1% fall in realizations.


Volume breakup
As a % of net sales Q1 FY13 Q1 FY12 % yoy Q4 FY12 % qoq
Domestic          
<125cc 1,425,821 1,311,091 8.8 1,330,188 7.2
>125cc and <250cc 60,833 82,279 (26.1) 82,166 (26.0)
Scooters 108,971 97,792 11.4 118,082 (7.7)
Exports          
<125cc 31,920 28,099 13.6 27,999 14.0
>125cc and <250cc 2,380 2,324 2.4 3,891 (38.8)
Scooters 10,365 7,992 29.7 9,701 6.8
Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research

OPM rises 42bps yoy but declines by 34bps qoq, lower than our expectations

HML reported an OPM of 15% in Q1 FY13, a rise of 42bps yoy but a fall of 34bps qoq. This was lower than our expectations. Operating profit per vehicle increased 5.4% yoy to Rs5,704 but was lower by 3.1% qoq. While raw material costs have been relatively soft in Q1 FY13, higher staff costs and increased ad spends restricted the gains on margins.


Depreciation was higher by 26.6% yoy owing to the rupee depreciation impact on the royalty payout to the Honda Group. Effective tax rate was at 16.3% as compared to 16.7% in Q1 FY12 owing to increased output at the Haridwar plant.


Key takeaways from the conference call
  • The inventory level with the dealers has increased from the normal range of two weeks to about four weeks owing to the slowdown in demand.

  • The company has firmed up plans for the export launch as it has zeroed it on Africa and Latin America. In terms of models the company although has plans to sell all its models at a global scale but initially will focus on 100cc-125cc segment.

  • In the scooters segment, the company witnessed capacity constraints in June 2012, which was however resolved in July 2012 as the company raised its manufacturing capacity.

  • The company has guided for a capex of Rs25bn over the next couple of years. Of which Rs4bn will be spent on the Neemrana plant with a capacity of 750,000 per annum and Rs11bn will be incurred on the Gujarat plant which will have a capacity of 1.2mn units.

  • The company has raised prices of its products by Rs500-1,000 from May 2, 2012 to offset the rising raw material costs.

  • Production at Haridwar accounted for 38% of production in Q1 FY13 and the company expects this to be maintained at the current levels. This will lead to a lower tax rate in FY13. However, with 100% tax exemption at Haridwar ending in FY13, the tax rate will inch up to around 23-25% in FY14 from an estimated 16% in FY13. 

Cost analysis
As a % of net sales Q1 FY13 Q1 FY12 bps yoy Q4 FY12 bps qoq
Material costs 73.7 74.7 (1
BSE 3,421.85 [23.10] ([0.67]%)
NSE 3,419.45 [22.25] ([0.65]%)

***Note: This is a NSE Chart

 

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