Diggi Multitrade Management Discussions


1. GENERAL OUTLOOK:

Global real GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.7 percent in 2023, down from 3.3 percent in 2022. We expect further slowing to 2.4 percent in 2024. Economic growth is moderating under the weight of still high inflation and monetary policy tightening. Rather than a global recession, we expect a relatively subdued economic outlook. Growth is generally strongest in emerging Asian economies, and weakest in Europe and the US.

Rapid monetary policy tightening over the last year or so led to weakening in global housing, bank lending, and the industrial sector. However, this weakness has been more than offset by strength in other sectors, most notably service-sector activities, which is visible in labor markets. Strong consumer spending and the fading impact of shocks of recent years have been difficult to assess, leading to ongoing forecast revisions. Nonetheless, recent data point to moderation of these positive trends, leading to slower global growth in the second half of 2023 and early 2024.

Global Economy

Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. While the forecast for 2023 is modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO), it remains weak by historical standards. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.

The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and, earlier this year, strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in US and Swiss banking reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated adverse risks to the outlook. However, the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside. Inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an intensification of the war in Ukraine and extreme weather-related events, triggering more restrictive monetary policy. Financial sector turbulence could resume as markets adjust to further policy tightening by central banks. Chinas recovery could slow, in part as a result of unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers. Sovereign debt distress could spread to a wider group of economies. On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient.

In most economies, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability. Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthen financial supervision and risk monitoring. Should market strains materialize, countries should provide liquidity promptly while mitigating the possibility of moral hazard. They should also build fiscal buffers, with the composition of fiscal adjustment ensuring targeted support for the most vulnerable. Improvements to the supply side of the economy would facilitate fiscal consolidation and a smoother decline of inflation toward target levels.

Indian Economy

This year began with the anticipation that runaway inflation, aggressive policy rate hikes, and high commodity prices might topple a few major economies into recession in 2023. We are halfway past 2023 and, while the world is still in the woods, the probability of a recession this year has trimmed. Labor markets in several advanced countries remain tight, while the largest economy, the United States, is seeing a rebound in consumer confidence and spending. Risk spreads are declining on both sides of the Atlantic after the recent banking crisis in the United States.

India, meanwhile, enjoys a Goldilocks moment as it sees its economic activity gaining momentum amid continuing global uncertainties. The last quarters GDP data was pleasantly surprising but not completely unexpected. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter has pushed up the full-year GDP growth of FY2022-23 to 7.2%, 200 basis points (bps) higher than the earlier estimate. The recently released Annual Economic Review for the month of May 2023 highlighted that the postpandemic quarterly trajectories of consumption and investment have crossed prepandemic levels.1

Evidently, economists and analysts are bullish about the Indian economy. Our growth forecasts for FY2023-24 remain similar to our April forecast, although higher-than-expected growth in FY2022-23 has raised our base for comparison. That said, we have raised our lower limit of the range given the buoyancy of the economy. We expect India to grow between 6% and 6.3% in FY2023-24 and have a stronger outlook thereafter. In fact, if global uncertainties recede, we expect growth to surpass 7% over the next two years.

There are multiple downside risks to our forecasts, but we find the uncertainties around the actions of the central banks of major economies and the oil price movements this past quarter particularly interesting. In this edition, we highlight the significance of these developments and their future implications for India.

India grew by 6.1% in the last quarter, which is approximately ~100 bps higher than what the market had anticipated.2 While the overall growth was broad-based, many sectors such as construction and agriculture experienced more-than-expected growth. In fact, strong growth in manufacturing proved to be a reassuring development as modest growth in the sector in previous quarters had been a concern for policymakers.

On the expenditure side, exports performed well despite global headwinds, while imports recorded their slowest growth since December 2020, primarily because of easing crude oil prices bringing down Indias import bills. Private consumption, the largest component of Indias final demand, with a modest growth of 7.5% in FY2022-23,3 emerged as the weakest link in overall growth. The share of private consumption in GDP fell in the last quarter and was the lowest in the past seven quarters, dragged down by weak rural demand. However, things might be changing on that front as well.

Urban demand conditions have remained resilient, as evidenced by the sales of mid- to high-end segments of automobiles, the number of UPI transactions, and domestic air passenger traffic data.4 Rural demand, which was lagging, has also been rising lately, as seen in the sales of tractors, IIP nondurable goods, and Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act data.5

Overall, the first-quarter data of FY2024 instils confidence in the improving health of the economy. Inflation in the first quarter was 4.5%, the lowest since the quarter of September 2019. Goods and Services Tax collections remain strong, suggesting that revenue buoyancy will aid in improving the budgeted fiscal deficit ratio to GDP. At the same time, Indias external account has been improving, thanks to the falling import bills as oil prices ease.

Interestingly, the credit-deposit ratio has continued to improve strongly from the lows of the pandemic despite the rising interest rates (figure 1). A deeper dive reveals that most of the lending is happening in the industry and services sector.6 This points to improving investment, which means that the supply side is gearing up to meet the rising demand.

2. REAL ESTATE MARKET:

The real estate industry is moving beyond what it perceives as cyclical headwinds — i.e., rising interest rates, declining gross domestic product (GDP), sinking deal flows — and taking a long-term approach to real estate assets. The mood among the real estate professionals we interviewed for this years Emerging Trends is cautious optimism. Their plan: Ride out the current slump and reposition their firms for another period of sustained growth and strong returns.

We find it striking that so many people in the industry are willing to look beyond cyclical headwinds. As one real estate professional told us, "Well look back in 10 years, and the prices that seem astronomical today will seem like a bargain."

This years Emerging Trends also reconfirms two sometimes contradictory property market trends: Aspects of the industry are "normalizing" (reverting to pre-COVID patterns), while others appear to have permanently changed as the pandemic has altered how and where we use different types of properties. These patterns are playing out in how real estate professionals view prospects in the 80 markets we tracked. No matter the trends, we believe companies must be flexible and adapt quickly to market changes.

3. OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGES

(a) Opportunities

As India awaits policy reforms to pick up speed, your Company firmly believes that the demand for Real Estate in a country like India should remain strong in the medium to long term. Your Companys well accepted brand, contemporary architecture, well designed projects in strategic locations, strong balance sheet and stable financial performance even in testing times make it a preferred choice for customers and shareholders. Your Company is ideally placed to further strengthen its development potential by acquiring new land parcels.

(b) Challenges

While the management of your Company is confident of creating and exploiting the opportunities, it also finds the following challenges:

• Unanticipated delays in project approvals;

• Availability of accomplished and trained labour force;

• Concerns due to ongoing pandemic situation;

• Increased cost of manpower;

• Rising cost of construction lead by increase in commodity prices;

• Growth in auxiliary infrastructure facilities; and

• Over regulated environment.

4. BUSINESS OVERVIEW:

Our Companys business activities may be classified as follows:

Trading in real estate by way of acquiring interests in various real estate projects such as flats, land and commercial offices.

5. PRESENCE IN CERTAIN AREAS OF MUMBAI SUBURBS:

A substantial amount of our business activities are concentrated in certain areas of Mumbai suburbs such as Mira Road and Naigaon. We believe that we have good knowledge of the environment in these areas which assist us in identifying opportunities. Our Company believes that these areas are having tremendous growth potential since the said areas are still to be developed and are an attractive real estate market in terms of returns on investment and depth of demand for real estate developments.

6. CONTINUED FOCUS IN REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES:

We intend to continue our focus in the real estate activities. We believe that the areas where we have focused our real estate activities are an attractive market in terms of return of investment and depth of demand for real estate developments.

7. FOCUS IN NEW AREAS:

Although, we have historically focused our business activities in Mumbai suburbs such as Mira Road and Naigaon. We are in process of establishing our presence in other areas of Mumbai suburbs.

8. TO CONTINUE EXPANDING OUR BUSINESS BY INCLUDING NEW SERVICES:

We intend to explore opportunities to expand our operations by developing new verticals within our existing lines of business. Further expanding our offerings will help us to build on existing diversification of our business.

For and on behalf of the Board of Directors

Diggi Multitrade Limited
Sd/- Sd/-
Anilkumar Pannalal Patni Sangeeta Hariprasad Naidu
Date: 05.09.2023 Managing Director Director& CFO
Place: Mumbai DIN: 06597013 DIN: 0748443