The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.
The details of the estimates are presented below.
ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
At constant (2004-05) prices
Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 12,93,922 crore as against Rs. 12,28,982 crore in Q2 of 2011-12, showing a growth rate of 5.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12 are ‘construction’ at 6.7 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 5.5 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.4 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 7.5 per cent. The growth rates in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ is estimated at 1.2 per cent, ‘mining and quarrying’ at 1.9 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 0.8 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 3.4 per cent in this period.
According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of
Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2012-13 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 24.9.2012, production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds are expected to decline by 6.5%, 18.4%, 14.5% and 9.6% respectively during the Kharif season of 2012-13 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2011-12. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries.
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 1.8 per cent, 0.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 4.1 per cent, 3.4 per cent and 10.5 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2011-12. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 5.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13.
Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 1.6 per cent, (-)0.9 per cent, (-)5.2 per cent, (-)6.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 17.5 per cent, and 15.7 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12. The stock of telephone connections (both WLL and cellular) increased by 8.0 per cent in Q2, 2012-13 over Q2 2011-12.
At current prices
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2012-13, is estimated at Rs. 21,83,794 crore, as against Rs. 19,23,173 crore in Q2, 2011-12, showing an increase of 13.6 per cent.
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent, 17.7 per cent, 10.3 percent, 6.1 per cent, 16.5 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2012-13, over Q2 of 2011-12. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.8 per cent during Q2 of 2012-13 over Q2 of 2011-12.
ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure10. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 13,31,582 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 11,85,844 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 8,19,825 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 7,90,738 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2012-13 are estimated at 58.3 per cent and 60.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.8 per cent and 60.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure11. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,68,801 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 2,26,589 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,49,604 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 1,37,672 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2012-13 are estimated at 11.8 per cent and 11.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.0 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 6,99,379 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 6,33,680 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,55,400 crore in Q2 of 2012-13 as against Rs. 4,37,624 crore in Q2 of 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2012-13 are estimated at 30.6 per cent and 33.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.9 per cent and 33.4 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12.
Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.
2Q GDP growth at 5.3% was broadly in line with our estimate, says Asutosh Datar of IIFL Institutional Equities. "In our view growth is unlikely to materially pick up in the next few quarters as the both investment cycle and consumption show no signs of a pick up. The recent reform measures announced by the government are positive but it is unlikely to boost growth in the near-term."
"While inflation should start moderating in 2013, it will pave the way for monetary easing from the RBI. This coupled with further reform measures from the Government will pave the way for growth to start recovering in 2H next year onwards. In the interim growth will remain around 5.5-6%."
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