andhra paper share price Management discussions


Forward-looking statements

The Company has presented forward-looking information in this Annual Report to aid investors assess its future objectives and make informed investment decisions. This report, as well as other written and oral statements that the Company releases periodically, contain forward-looking statements that set out anticipated results based on the managements plans and assumptions. The Company has attempted to identify such statements wherever possible by using terms such as anticipate, estimate, intends, plans, believes, and words of similar substance in connection with any discussion of future performance. The Company cannot ensure that any forward-looking statements will be realised, but it believes that its assumptions have been prudent. Results are subject to risks, uncertainties and even inaccurate assumptions. Should known or unknown risks or uncertainties materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated, estimated or projected. Readers should bear this in mind. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Global economy

A confluence of factors including high inflation, legacy effects of the COVID pandemic, Europes food and energy crisis, rapidly shifting macroeconomic conditions and the protracted war in Ukraine weighed on global economic activities in CY2022. In the beginning of CY23, the global economy demonstrated early signs of recovery, but recent financial sector volatility and sticky inflation have dampened the prospects for a sustained rebound. Risks are relatively skewed to the downside as debt levels remain high and geopolitical tensions intensify.

Positive trend is that global inflation is expected to decelerate from 8.7% in CY22 to 7% in CY23 and 4.3% in CY241 mainly due to lower food and energy prices and softening global demand.

Emerging markets and developing economies have withstood the inflationary pressures with fiscal support and other measures from central banks. The downturn, however, is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the Eurozone and the United Kingdom mainly driven by rising service sector and wage growth. Moreover, central banks monetary policies are anticipated to contribute to an overall decline in global inflation.

Although tightening monetary policies economic uncertainties and other geopolitical concerns are posing enormous threats to the global economy, there are promising signs of a slow recovery. Amid lower commodity prices, fewer restrictions on global supply emerging markets like India are experiencing a boost in their economies by offsetting the impact of the depreciating currency, and as a result, growth rates in India are predicted to rise significantly this year as compared to others.

Outlook

There are positive indicators that point to a slow but steady rebound from the pandemic-induced challenges and supply-chain constraints. Recent improvements in connectivity and trade have helped alleviate some of the obstacles businesses were facing, fostering a resumption of normal operations. Additionally, resilient consumer spending in developed economies, continued growth momentum in India, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are projected to drive the economic recovery going forward.

A stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a sharp decline in inflation are anticipated in the course of CY23. The governments and central banks of the world are expected to remain instrumental in accelerating economic growth through targeted, need-based measures.

Indian economy

Amid intensifying geopolitical concerns, the Indian economy is estimated to have registered a growth of 7% in FY23 (based on the second advance estimate from the NSO)2. India to witness GDP growth of 6% to 6.5% in 2024 depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally. The S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI increased to 58.7 in May 2023 from 57.2 a month earlier, exceeding market forecasts of 56.5. Lowering unemployment and an increase in net payroll additions under the EPFO signify a surge in employment in the corporate sector. The corporate sectors credit-to-GDP ratio is still below its historical trend, which indicates that there is ample room for this sector to raise its debt burden. The corporate sectors high debt level has also been shown to be crucial for sustaining macroeconomic stability.

According to the IMF, India, along with China, is expected to contribute 50% of the global growth in CY 2023.

Statutory Reports

Persistent domestic demand, particularly in private consumption, an increase in gross fixed capital formation and the governments enhanced focus on capex have all contributed to this robust expansion. A historic budget estimate (BE) of Rs. 10 lakh crore for FY24 was announced as part of the Union Budget 2023, which marked a 33.4% increase in the capital investment outlay3. The governments capital investments are anticipated to benefit the manufacturing sector of the economy by offering Indian goods a competitive edge in the global market.

Outlook

Credit growth to MSME sector has been high at 30.5% during Jan - Nov 2022 which is expected to be big growth driver in 2023-24. The sheer Volume of digital financial transactions have made India the most preferred investment destination of the world. Strong government capex continues to drive growth.

A conducive domestic policy environment and the Governments sustained focus on structural reforms have kept Indias economic activity robust despite the gloomy global outlook. India is expected to retain its position as the fastest-growing nation among the G-20 nations in the years ahead. In addition to this, Indias presidency of the G20 Summit in 2023 has significantly bolstered its international standing.

A combination of rising disposable income, easy availability of credit and lowering interest rates in the wake of a stabilising inflation trajectory will bode well for economic growth going forward.

Industry overview

Global paper industry

Global paper demand is estimated to have witnessed an upsurge of 1% in 2022. The demand is expected to increase further by 1-3% in 2023. Annual growth till 2025 is anticipated to be 2% CAGR on account of a shift towards digitalisation, which will impact the writing and printing paper and newsprint segments the most. However, a healthy demand for paperboard from end-use industries would drive overall expansion in the long run. The paperboard segment is estimated to have grown at a robust 8-9% rate, backed by healthy demand from the end-use industries. The market for speciality paper is estimated to have improved at a healthy pace of 12-13% Y-o-Y growth.4

Outlook

The overall demand is expected to surge at a healthy two-year CAGR (FY23-FY25) of 5-7% to ~21.5-22.5 million tonne by FY 2025, primarily due to paperboard demand.

• Healthy growth in paperboard volume is predicted to drive demand, with a 7-9% CAGR from FY 2023 to FY 2025. Increased volumes in end-user segments such as household appliances, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals, e-commerce and others are likely to strengthen consumer demand.

• W&P demand is projected to rise at a modest 3-5% CAGR from FY 2023 to FY 2025, compared to a de-growth of 3-3.5% over FY 2017 to FY 2021, on account of steep demand falls caused by the closure of educational institutes and offices because of the pandemic.

• Specialty paper (primarily tissue and thermal paper) is expected to continue to record a robust 11-12% CAGR from FY2023 to FY2025.

Indian paper industry

Paper stocks have been among the top performers in 2022 on the back of robust demand, consolidation in the sector, stable margins, and the ban on single-use plastic. The paper industry in India accounts for about 5% of global paper production. The estimated turnover of the industry is over Rs. 80,000 crore, with a contribution to the exchequer of roughly Rs. 5,000 crore. The industry directly employs around 500,000 workers and indirectly employs nearly 1.5 million.

The per capita paper consumption in India marginally improved over the years to 15kg at present, which is way behind the global average of 57kg. However, India is the worlds fastest-growing paper market, presenting an exciting scenario wherein paper consumption is poised to take a significant leap forward in tandem with economic expansion.

The growth in paper consumption is estimated to be in multiples of GDP and hence an increase in consumption by one kg per capita would lead to an increase in demand of 1 million tonnes5.

With more than 750 paper mills in operation, the paper industry is fragmented; less than 100 of these mills have a capacity of more than 50,000 TPA. The number of major companies in the market has been constrained by high capital expenditure, technical knowledge, lengthy gestation periods, and difficulties in obtaining raw materials.

In FY 2023, it is projected that the demand for the Indian paper industry will reach approximately 20 million tonnes. This growth is anticipated to be propelled by rising business investments in office supplies and advertising, changes in national education policy and curriculum and an increase in industrial activity. Nonetheless, the newsprint market continues to significantly hinder overall demand due to a decline in the circulation of English newspaper and the shift towards digital versions of newspapers driven by the expansion of digitisation and the prevalence of smartphones.6

The Indian paper industry paperboard holds the largest market share in terms of volume, while W&P commands the largest market share in terms of value. However, the paper market in India is highly fragmented and decentralised. This is primarily due to the inadequate domestic supply of wood compared to the demand and the inefficiency in the recovery process of wastepaper, which continues to pose challenges for the paper sector in India. The global recession is pushing the paper products to India at a lower price which is a threat for wood based mills to sell their products at a competitive rate. In Q3 FY22-23 exports of uncoated wood-free & packaging grades had also hit due to highly competitive prices from foreign mills.

During 2022, domestic pulp prices experienced a rapid increase, mirroring the global pulp price trends. This rise was driven by robust industrial paper demand, strong export demand for Writing and Printing (W&P) paper, and logistical challenges arising from escalating freight costs. However, in 2023, it is expected that pulp prices will decrease significantly due to the easing of supply restrictions and a decline in freight costs.

As for the wastepaper segment, domestic prices are predicted to decline in the 2023. Moreover, there is an anticipation of further price reductions in subsequent years, specifically in 2024, as collection processes improve.7

Strategic growth drivers

Paperboard demand is expected to grow sharply, primarily fuelled by moderate demand from end-use sectors.

• FMCG volumes are expected to witness a surge, which is the major growth driver for the paperboard segment. Over the long-term, a rise in population and gradually increasing private expenditure would keep demand from the FMCG segment afloat.

• Demand for consumer durables is expected to improve, which will be marked by better affordability, shorter replacement cycles, multiple ownership (in the case of CTVs) and low penetration levels (in the case of other appliances such as room ACs).

• The requirement of the ready-made garment industry, too, is expected to report growth in volume terms.

• E-retail growth is expected to register a healthy expansion rate and rapidly rising shipments in the e-retail industry and a rise in penetration levels in overall retail will provide a fillip to the volumes within the segment over the medium-term.

• Similarly, the pharma sectors demand is also expected to spike, mainly driven by vaccination shipments and deliveries across the country, supporting the paperboard demand.

Within paperboard, the consumer packaging segment is expected to grow significantly, backed by a rise in demand for FMCG, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and apparel. Higher disposable income and a greater demand for ready-to-eat foods will support overall volumes. Demand from pharmaceuticals will also be aided by increased exports and new drug launches. Further, the ban on single-use plastics is expected to augur well for the paper industry.

Outlook

The paper industry in India is witnessing one of the fastest growth rates globally. The paper market has surpassed pre-pandemic levels and demonstrated a robust recovery in FY23. Owing to its large potential, the paper industry is expected to grow at a rate of 6-8 % per annum. Substantial amounts have been spent by the paper industry on plantation R&D leading to the development of high-quality tree clonal saplings that are disease free, drought resistant and can withstand various agro-climatic conditions. Technical extension services are being imparted to the farmers over a gestation period of 4-5 years to boost agro and farm forestry output.

The New Education Policy (NEP) is expected to lead to a surge in the requirement for textbooks. Nonetheless, it is predicted that the prices of pulp will experience a substantial decrease in 2023 due to the relaxation of supply restrictions and a decline in freight costs. Regarding the pricing of the domestic paper industry, the prices of Maplitho remained stable throughout the month of April in 2023, while there was a slight marginal increase in the prices of Creamwove.8

The industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on enhancing production efficiency, sustainability and profitability. The paper industry is likely to continue investing in research and development of new technologies and practices to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving market9.

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

• The Indian paper industry is expected to record sustained growth in demand due to rising literacy rates and business activities. As the literacy rate increases and businesses expand, there will be a greater need for paper products such as books, newspapers and packaging materials.

• The Indian government has implemented several policies to promote the use of eco-friendly products, which could benefit the recyclable paper industry. For example, the Government has launched initiatives such as the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (Clean India Mission) and Make in India, that encourage the usage of recycled materials and aid domestic manufacturing.

• India has abundant raw materials such as bamboo, wood pulp and wastepaper that can be used for producing several paper products. This signifies that Indian paper industry has access to a reliable supply of raw materials at competitive prices.

• With greater awareness about environmental issues, there is a growing demand for eco-friendly products. This presents an opportunity for the Indian paper industry to develop and market sustainable paper products that are made from recycled materials or from sustainably managed forests.

• The Indian paper industry has traditionally focused on producing writing and printing paper, but there is potential for diversification into new product segments such as specialty papers, tissue papers and packaging materials. Segments such as paperboard are expected to report significant growth in the upcoming years, which brings forth great opportunities for the domestic paper industry.

Threats

• Under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA) agreement, reduced tariffs on paper imports from ASEAN countries would make it easier for them to export their paper products to India at lower prices, which could lead to higher competition for Indian paper manufacturers. Easier investments in paper manufacturing facilities in ASEAN countries could lead to a shift in production away from India and towards these countries, which could have a negative impact on the Indian paper industry.

• New technologies are emerging that could disrupt traditional methods of producing and distributing paper products. For instance, digital printing technology is becoming more advanced, which could lead to increased competition for traditional printing methods. With the rise of digital media, there is a growing trend towards using electronic documents instead of physical ones. This could lead to decreased demand for certain types of paper products, such as writing and printing paper including newspapers and magazines.

• Raw material availability in the near future is a major threat to the Indian paper industry. India has a total land area of 3.3 million square kilometres, yet only 0.7 million square kilometres of the area are covered by forests. The non-forested portion of the overall land area is about 78%. Additionally, the shortage of raw materials for paper mills are due to factors such as depleting forest resources and restrictions on growing man-made forests.10

Risks and mitigation measures

Risks

Risk Definition

Risk

Impact

(Low,

Medium,

High)

Risk Mitigation

Occupational Health and Safety Alongside the direct and indirect loss of production and property, occupational hazards and accidents may cause serious injuries, including the loss of life of our employees, workers, or contractors. Medium/ High The Company considers health and safety as essential principles and strives to create, run and sustain workplaces that are free from accidents and injuries for its workers. Constant efforts are made to adhere to the EHSS requirements with Safety leading signs, suitable instruction and assessment procedures.
Raw

Materials

Commodity prices and raw material availability can be impacted due to events such as the pandemic which can lead to unusual surge in input prices affecting the Companys business. High The management of the Company recognizes the potential risk of not having access to raw materials, particularly wood which is required for production. To mitigate this risk, the Company has formed partnerships with local communities to ensure a consistent supply of fresh wood. Additionally, the Company has learned from the challenges faced during the pandemic and has revisited its inventory stocking strategy. By improving its market intelligence, the Company has enhanced its ability to plan production more efficiently.
General

Economic

Factors

The Company may suffer as a result of political, economic, or other issues that are normally out of the organizations control. Additionally, the paper business is prone to such risks because of its positive relationship to economic expansion. High / Medium The Company keeps a close eye on both domestic and international news and works to predict how future policy changes will affect the relevant markets in order to make proper preparations for mitigation.
Product substitution An accelerated tendency in businesses adopting digital communication technologies could seriously impact paper consumption. Additionally, increasing awareness and statutory regulations with focus on biodegradable paper/board product usages may result in product mix change to meet the changing end customer requirements Medium The Company proactively assess its product and marketing strategy as well as understanding the threat potential and potential effects to handle the issue in particular markets in the future.
Cyclicality of industry Sales may suffer as a result of cyclical demand for paper. The operations of APL may be impacted by the drop in sale prices. The business cyclical nature could hinder profitability or growth. Medium The Company has increased the scope of its operations, increased the volume of valueadding items it produces, and consistently worked to increase operational efficiencies to reduce costs. To safeguard profits, operations are being scaled up and fixed costs per tonne of paper are being decreased.
Foreign exchange risk If foreign exchange transaction risks, particularly those related to imports, such as trade payables, credit notes, trade receivables, and others, are not addressed, the Company may suffer financially. Medium The Company has a committed team of professionals who continuously watch the financial markets and use a variety of risk- mitigation tools, including hedging, to reduce risk.
Credit Risk The risk associated with nonfulfillment of contractual obligation of a financial obligation by a customer to which it is a party. This could cause stress in the management of cash flow and revenue loss. Medium The Company has system that allows for regular monitoring and updating of all financial transactions the Company makes. Interventions are made when they are required in advance of any circumstance that could harm the Companys bottom line.
High competition and threat from imports Increasing supplies from ASEAN Players with existing FTAs and expansions of existing players in domestic markets to increase/sustain their market share will lead to fierce competition. High Andhra Paper has developed into one of the most competitive pulp and paper makers, and because of its investment in product development, quality, and branding, the Company continues to hold an immense competitive advantage in the market. The newly introduced kinds have been well appreciated by the market, and Andhra Paper continues to invest in Product Development and optimise product mix across its assets to have a competitive edge in the markets it operates. Over the years, some of the major categories like cutsize and high-grade writing and printing papers, have attained leadership positions in terms of product quality
Technology The competitive edge (both domestically and internationally) would diminish if production technology is not upgraded regularly. High/

Medium

To satisfy market demands, efforts are being made to improve procedures and make the best use of resources. The business is dedicated to continuously lowering production costs by implementing cutting-edge technologies while enhancing the quality of its finished goods.
Utilities Coal, wood and water are all required for the paper industry to operate. Any of these utilities not being available could increase the Companys cost vulnerability Medium / High The Company uses every portion of the wood because it recovers the remaining lignin from the wood during the pulping process to burn in the recovery boiler. Andhra Paper has significantly decreased its reliance on fossil fuels and put in place sufficient strategies to meet its needs. The Company has made investments in appropriate water recycling procedures to minimise its consumption of valuable natural resources. The Company recycles water as much as it can while also minimising waste, which is more vital. The Company has steadily decreased energy and water expenses per MT of goods manufactured over the years.
Environment

Risk

In contrast to other manufacturing sectors, the paper industry uses a lot of energy and produces pollutants and greenhouse gases. The trash produced by the pulp and paper industry harms aquatic life severely, upsets the food chain, and has many negative effects on human health. The hazards to the Companys future prospects from noncompliance and reputational damage are consequent. High The Company is dedicated to preserving the environment in which it conducts business. In order to raise awareness, the Company has constructed a number of trash recycling facilities inside the manufacturing facility and interacts with the local community and workers. The Company employs the necessary technologies to stop any emissions of dangerous gases into the atmosphere and routinely checks the emissions from the production process.
Human

Resource

Risk

Lack of access to the right human resources may limit corporate operations, which could have an impact on the Companys financial health and operational success. The incidence of labour-related compliance violations (e.g., employment-related problems, harassment, human rights violations, etc.) could result in lawsuits, damage societys confidence in Andhra Paper, have an impact on the Companys business performance, and harm its financial position. Low The Company takes steps to reduce any risk associated with labour, such as by managing employment effectively in accordance with laws and regula tions. The Companys human resource department places a strong emphasis on employee motivation and engagement, which also aids in the accomplishment of the organizations strategic goals. Human resource procedures are intended to attract exceptional people, guarantee their ongoing growth, and promptly handle any issues they may have.

Human Resources

The Company acknowledges the crucial role of human capital in the capital-intensive paper industry It has effective talent management strategies in place, including leadership succession planning and organisational assessments. To build a resilient organisation with strong individuals, the Company employs various techniques such as engagement plans, training and skill development, career planning and health and wellness programmes. The Companys number one priority is to ensure the safety of its personnel. As an equal opportunity employer, the Company is dedicated to fostering a positive work environment where employees can do their jobs without being concerned about discrimination, gender bias, or sexual harassment. The Company has handled labour relations in a professional manner as it continued to treat people with dignity and respect as well as upheld important principles of labour relations.

Since the Company firmly believes that it is built on people, investing in their ability to grow is crucial to achieving its objectives. The three Cs of leadership—Character, Capability, and Catalyst—have assimilated into the Companys leadership lexicon and are well-integrated into its processes and tools for employee development.

Total number of persons employed directly and indirectly by the Company as on March 31, 2023

Operational highlights

With the changing market dynamics, the Company began producing value-added products, including Cup stock, Pharma Print and Hi BF Virgin Kraft.

Products

Y-o-Y sales growth

Cup stock

RS. 17%

Pharma Print

Kraft

85%

Apart from developing new products while considering industry trends, continuous efforts are being made to improve the existing products based on feedback from customers and channel partners to customise the products to suit their requirements. It is therefore gratifying that even during these challenging times, the Companys performance ranked among the best in the paper industry.

The Company achieved its highest sales in a year at 2,50,238 MT (Y-o-Y 4%) with zero stock being achieved for the second consecutive year.

OTIF delivery rate (on-time-in-full) at 95.40%, forecast accuracy at 93% and improved complaint closure at 80%, which is top tier in the Indian paper industry.

Financial highlights

In FY23, revenue from operations, registered an Y-o-Y growth of 52% and rose to Rs. 2098 crores as compared to Rs. 1380 crores in the previous year. EBITDA for FY 23 stood at Rs. 787 crores as against Rs. 266 crores in FY22. Profit after tax in FY 23 was Rs. 522 crores as against a profit of Rs. 139 crores in the previous year. The Company generated free cash flow of Rs. 421 crores during the year under consideration.

CARE ratings for the companys bank facilities recently improved from CARE AA-; Stable to CARE AA; Stable. The significant improvement in the companys performance during FY22, combined with the strong financial performance in the first half of FY23 and the favourable industry forecast in the near future, have all been key factors in the upgradation of ratings given to the bank facilities of Andhra Paper Limited (APL).

In addition, the management has taken additional steps to ensure raw material self-sufficiency. With an integrated approach to operations, an established distribution network, and other management measures, self-sufficiency in raw materials is ensured. Low debt levels, buffer in the fund-based working capital limits, the accommodating capital structure, robust liquidity profile and the availability of excess liquid investments has enhanced credit profile of the company.

In the backdrop of rising EBITDA and realisations and low debt, India Rating assigned Ind AA; Stable ratings to bank facilities of Andhra Paper Limited. The Company has been able to enhance its credit profile, and strengthen its net cash position.

The excellent performance of your Company is reflected in the following financial ratios.

Ratios

Particulars

31-Mar-23 1 31-Mar-22 Variance

i. Debtors Turnover

16.78 15.50 8%

ii. Inventory Turnover

13.16 8.92 48%

iii. Interest Coverage Ratio

105.77 39.05 171%

iv. Current Ratio

3.40 2.39 42%

v. Debt Equity Ratio

0.03 0.05 -34%

vi. Operating Profit Margin (%)

33.76% 14.04% 140%

vii. Net Profit Margin (%)

24.91% 10.12% 146%

viii. Return on Net Worth

33.02 12.77 159%

For further information and detailed explanations on ratios, please refer Note No.52 of the Financial Statements.

Internal control systems and their adequacy

The management of Andhra Paper is responsible for establishing and maintaining adequate internal controls over financial reporting. Internal controls over financial reporting are designed under the supervision of our Chairman & Managing Director, Joint Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer and executed by our Board of Directors, Audit Committee, Management and other personnel to provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of financial reporting and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes.

All internal control systems have inherent limitations, including the possibility of circumvention and overriding of controls, and therefore can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the designed control objectives. The Companys internal control system is supported by written policies and procedures, contains self-monitoring mechanisms, and is audited by Independent Auditors. Appropriate actions are taken by Management to correct deficiencies as they are identified. The Company has a process in place to continuously monitor the processes, identify gaps, if any, and implement new and/or improved controls wherever the effect of such gaps would have a material effect on the Companys operations. The Company takes full support of Internal Auditors, an external & independent Audit Firm, in this continuous process.

The Company performed an evaluation and made an assessment of the adequacy and effectiveness of its internal financial controls as of March 31, 2023. Based on this assessment, the Management believes that, as of March 31, 2023, the Companys internal controls over financial reporting were effective and our Statutory Auditors have expressed an unmodified opinion on the adequacy and operating effectiveness of the Companys internal financial controls over financial reporting as per their report.

The internal control environment includes an enterprisewide attitude of integrity and control consciousness that establishes a positive tone at the top. This is exemplified by our ethics programme, which includes long-standing principles and policies on ethical business conduct that require employees to maintain the highest ethical and legal standards in the conduct of Andhra Paper business and have been distributed to all employees.

The internal control system further includes careful selection and training of supervisory and management personnel, appropriate delegation of authority and division of responsibility, dissemination of accounting and business policies throughout the Company, and an extensive programme of internal audits with management follow-up. The Board of Directors, assisted by the Audit Committee, monitors the integrity of the Companys financial statements and financial reporting procedures, the performance of the Companys internal audit function and independent auditors, and other matters set forth in its charter. The Committee, which consists of majority Independent Directors meets regularly with representatives of management, the independent auditors and the Internal Auditors, with and without management representatives in attendance, to review their activities.

The Committee has reviewed and discussed with the Management and the independent auditors, the financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2023, including internal control systems, critical accounting policies and significant Management judgments.