kuantum papers ltd Management discussions


#MDStart#

1. Overview

The objective of this report is to convey the Managements perspective on the external environment, the paper industry, the strategies involved, operating and financial performance, developments in human resources and industrial relations, risks and opportunities, as well as internal control systems and their adequacy in the Company during the year. This should be read in conjunction with the Companys financial statements, the schedules and notes thereto and other information included elsewhere in the Report. The Companys financial statements have been prepared in accordance with Indian Accounting Standards (‘Ind AS) complying with the requirements of the Companies Act, 2013, as amended and regulations issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (‘SEBI) from time to time.

2. Indian Economy

Despite the global slowdown, Indias economic growth rate is stronger than in many peer economies and reflects relatively robust domestic consumption and lesser dependence on global demand. The Government of Indias strong infrastructure push under the Prime Ministers Gati Shakti (National Master Plan for Multimodal Connectivity) initiative, logistics development, and industrial corridor development will contribute significantly to raising industrial competitiveness and boosting future growth.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects growth in Indias gross domestic product (GDP) to moderate to 6.4% in fiscal year ending on 31 March 2024 and rise to 6.7% in FY 2025, driven by private consumption and private investment on the back of government policies to improve transport infrastructure, logistics, and the business ecosystem. The growth moderation is premised on an ongoing global economic slowdown, tight monetary conditions, and elevated oil prices coupled with sound macroeconomic fundamentals, lower non-performing loans in banks and significant corporate deleveraging that will enhance bank lending.

RBI has projected GDP growth at 6.5% for FY 2024 and inflation at 5.2%. RBI expects the governments focus on capital expenditure, capacity utilisation and moderating commodity prices to strengthen the manufacturing and investment activity.

3. An overview of the Economy and Business Environment

Indias growth continues to be resilient, despite some signs of moderation in growth. India is forecast to grow by 6.4% and healthy domestic demand in India will also support regional growth. The reopening of the China will boost regional economic growth through supply chain linkages and demand for goods and services. Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Pacific, and Southeast Asia will be lifted as tourism recovers. However, higher debt and interest rates have magnified financial stability risks, as evidenced by recent banking sector problems in the United States and Europe.

Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent. Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. Inflations return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.

Government spending, deficits and debt in several advanced economies have reached record highs relative to GDP. An escalation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause renewed surges in commodity prices, stoking global inflation and inducing further monetary tightening. The conflict has also brought in severe financial sanctions and political pressure on Russia from the rest of the world, primarily the Western powers. These will likely have unpredictable and undesired implications on the global financial system and economy. Further, climate change and global fracturing remain persistent challenges. To confront these challenges, policy makers need to strengthen policies to ensure financial stability and actively support multilateralism to deepen regional cooperation.

Its not just India, but almost all emerging economies are reeling under these external blows. However, Indias underlying economic fundamentals are strong and despite the short-term turbulence, the impact on the long-term outlook will be marginal. The results of growth-enhancing policies and schemes (such as production-linked incentives and governments push toward self-reliance) and increased infrastructure spending will start kicking in, leading to a stronger multiplier effect on jobs and income, higher productivity, and more efficiency—all leading to accelerated economic growth.

Furthermore, the emphasis on manufacturing in India, various government incentives such as lower taxes, and rising services exports on the back of stronger digitization and technology transformation drive across the world will aid in growth. Also, several spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts could enhance Indias status as a preferred alternate investment destination.

On the back of these factors, Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.4–6.5%, followed by equally strong growth in the next two fiscal years, respectively.

4. Industry Structure and Development

Indian population is around 15% of world population but consumes only 5% of the total paper produced in the world. Indias growing FMCG sector and high spending in education coupled with growth in organised retail and demand for better quality paper as well as more health consciousness of people, etc., are triggering factors of growth prospects of Indian Paper Industry. The estimated annual turnover of the industry is INR 80,000 Crore and its contribution to the exchequer is around INR 5,000 Crore. The industry provides direct employment to 0.5 million persons, and indirectly to around 1.5 million.

Most of the paper mills are in existence for a long time and hence present technologies fall in a wide spectrum ranging from oldest to the most modern. The mills use a variety of raw material viz. wood, bamboo, recycled fibre, bagasse, wheat straw, and grasses. In terms of share in total production, approximately 18% are based on wood, 73% on recycled fibre and 9% on agro-residues. The geographical spread of the industry, as well as market, is mainly responsible for the regional balance of production and consumption.

The paper Industry holds immense potential for growth in India as the per capita consumption is one of the lowest at around 15-16 kg, which is way behind the global average of 57 kg (200+kg for developed countries). India is the fastest-growing market for paper globally and it presents an exciting scenario; paper consumption is poised for a big leap forward in sync with economic growth. The futuristic view is that growth in paper consumption would be in multiples of GDP and hence an increase in consumption by one kg per capita would lead to an increase in demand of 1 million tonnes. Healthy demand for printing and writing paper and firm realisations are further expected to drive growth for paper manufacturing companies.

The literacy rate in the country is 74.04%, 82.14% for males and 65.46% for females. This rise is largely attributable to the following Governments flagship schemes:

1. Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY),

2. Mahila Samakhya Programme,

3. Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA),

4. Beti Bachao Beti Padhao,

5. Strengthening for providing quality Education in Madrassas,

6. Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan ,

7. Saakshar Bharat (Adult Education) and lastly,

8. Goods & Service Tax (GST) and the Make in India program

As per CRISIL Report, Writing & printing paper demand is expected to increase 3-5% CAGR over the current demand and reach 5.6-6.0 million tonne by fiscal 2025. Enrolment of students (schools as well as higher education) is expected to increase at a relatively faster pace of 1.5-2% CAGR over the next 3 years. Also, with the New Education Policy coming to effect and a gradual rise in education spend by the government, alongwith an increased thrust on education (through initiatives such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan/Education for All) are expected to support demand for creamwove and maplitho paper. Specialty paper demand, primarily driven by Tissue paper, is expected to continue to log a robust 11-12% CAGR over the current demand to fiscal 2025. Demand for copier paper (20% of the W&P segment) is expected to increase at 7-9% CAGR through fiscal 2025, primarily on account of moderation spends on stationery by corporates due to focus on digital-based communication. Demand growth for coated paper is expected to remain moderate at 3-5% CAGR through fiscal 2025.

CRISIL Research expects demand for specialty paper to increase driven by strong demand for tissue paper. Over fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025, we expect this segment to grow at robust 11-13% CAGR to ~1.9-2.3 million tonne by fiscal 2027 from ~1.3-1.5 million tonne in fiscal 2022. The main varieties of specialty paper are tissue, decor, thermal, fine printing, cigarette, and business card paper. Rise in urbanisation, emphasis on hygiene through increased government thrust (via initiatives such as Swatch Bharat), and steady rise in healthcare and hospitality demand will lead to rise in demand for tissue paper consumption. Moreover, rise in the number of cashless transaction (ATM, debit/credit card purchase, etc.) and increased billing (owing to rise in share of organised retailing) will boost demand for thermal paper.

Greater emphasis on education and literacy by the Government coupled with demand for better quality of paper are major drivers for writing & printing paper. The paper industry has made substantial investments to increase the production capacities and as a result, in almost all paper grades, the country has enough domestic capacity to meet the growing domestic demand and also for exporting to other counties. Further about 1 million TPA of pulp, paper and paperboard capacity is required to be created additionally on an annual basis over the current capacity to meet the growing demand.

5. Opportunities and Threats

The per capita paper consumption in India stands at 15-16 kg which is well below the global average of 57 kg and significantly below 200 kg in developing economies, which highlights an opportunity in terms of potential growth of paper demand in India. The demand will be driven and supported by higher Government spending on education initiatives, corporate spending on stationary and healthy growth in services sector. Inspite of advancement in technology, like the usage of Tabs, Smart Phones, digitization, the increased preference for online storage and dissemination of data, the paper industry is poised for a consistent growth in demand over the next few years. Despite the higher level of technology being used in the corporate sector, there has been no decline in the overall paper consumption. The envisaged growth in the value-added writing and printing paper segment in India presents an invaluable opportunity and your company plans to leverage it by tapping its institutional strength in its distribution supply chain, cost competitiveness and its premium quality alongwith its branding prowess. Further with literacy rates set to improve and universalization of education through legislative steps like Right to Education, government measures like Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, midday meal schemes, Girl Education Programme (GEP), growing enrolment as well as increasing number of schools, colleges and institutions and increased spending on education by all sections of the society will provide an impetus to this segment.

The company has been one of the most cost competitive paper mills and a large player in the writing and printing segment. The continuous efforts of the company towards cost reduction and technology up-gradation has led to improved product quality, enhanced product range, increased production capacity, higher operational efficiencies and economies of scale. Further these initiatives have also enabled the company to manufacture premium quality paper, such as maplitho paper, specialty papers and premium copier paper, which is placed in the higher value segment, competing with quality of other large paper mills.

Indian paper mills are categorized based on raw materials used by them in the manufacture of paper - wood based mills, agro-based mills and wastepaper based mills. Wood accounts for 30-35% of production, while wastepaper and agri-residues account for 45-50% and 20-22%, respectively. India has a total land area of 3.3 million sq km with forests covering only 0.7 million sq km. About 78% of the total land area is non-forest area. With diminishing forest resources and limitations on enlarging man-made forests, there is scarcity of raw material for paper mills. Moreover, the limited raw material can be put to many alternative uses.

Raw material and chemical costs account for around 50 per cent of the operating income of mills in the paper industry. Agro and Wood based pulp are the main raw materials required for manufacturing W&P paper, especially in the higher end papers such as maplitho and coated paper. Indias wood resources are limited, and therefore the cost of wood is higher in global comparison. Since there is conspicuous absence of Governments policies favoring industrial plantation, securing future wood supplies will be the Industrys biggest challenge. In line with this increase in production, demand for wood material will also go up. Your company has insulated itself from the vagaries of pricing of global pulp by enhancing its wood pulping capacities, thereby reducing its dependency on imported wood pulp. Further to counter the issue of wood deficit, the paper mills including your company gave thrust to initiatives like agro forestry which have now started yielding results.

To support the availability of raw material for the industry, the Government has announced in the budget 2023-24 that the Government will provide funding to help implement policies that will promote agro-forestry and commercial forestry. The Government had put in place policies to encourage agro-forestry, giving the paper industry a boost in terms of the stability of its raw materials, in addition to contributing to an increase in the overall amount of green cover across the country.

Another source of raw material for the paper industry is agri-residues such as wheat straw, bagasse, wild grass, and other such agricultural wastes. Your company has the locational advantage of being in the centre of one of the largest wheat growing areas in India and thus, does not foresee a challenge in the availability of this raw material despite increased demand. Bagasse is the other widely-used agri-residue in the paper industry. However, availability of bagasse has been declining due to its increased use in power generation by sugar industry. Your company has also decreased its dependency on bagasse and developed alternate raw materials through extensive R & D. Despite agri-residues being seasonal in nature, your company has mastered processing several types of raw material for pulp making, and has therefore gained an edge in the industry.

The alternative source of raw material is wastepaper and recycled paper - domestic and imported. Both together accounted for nearly 50 per cent of the total paper production. In India, however, the system of wastepaper collection is not very well developed in the domestic wastepaper segment. The recovery rate is low and consequently there is lower availability. This leads to domestic mills relying increasingly on imports to meet their demand. Your company does not use wastepaper as a raw material for its production purposes and hence is not impacted by this raw material.

The changes in Government policies, environment standards and the paperless initiatives on various fronts, coupled with Green initiatives in Corporate Governance, is indicative of a slight threat to the paper industry. Although India does not import any significant quantity of W&P or paperboard, the share of imports over the next few years will remain a key factor for growth in writing and printing paper.

The Government announced the new National Education Policy (the NEP 2020) to focus on providing education that is equitable, accessible, high-quality and affordable. The policy was expected to be implemented from April 2022 academic years, but its implementation was delayed due to spread of covid-19 pandemic and consequently the educational establishments were running online classes. However, with the gradual implementation of the NEP from academic year 2023-24 and rise in the education spend by the Government and increased thrust on education through initiatives such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan/ Education of All, the printing & writing paper demand is expected to increase sharply. The policy acts as a roadmap to revolutionize schooling and higher education in India that will support and foster a lifelong learning culture to maximize the rich talents and resources the country has to offer. The NEP 2020 is a giant leap in a list of initiatives taken by the government in achieving Goal 4 (SDG4) of the 2030. The policy recognises the ever-changing knowledge and employment landscape in our global ecosystem and focuses on curricular and pedagogy reform, aligning it with international standards and making India a vibrant knowledge economy and a nation of thought leaders. The impending changes in the education policy and curriculum are bound to create a huge demand for writing and printing paper to meet the needs of new Indian education system.

The ban on the use of plastics in a wide variety of applications that has been put in place by the Govt of India with effect from July 01, 2022, and has given a big boost to paper production for new paper products and the new variety of paper qualities are finding its way into the market, filling up the huge gap left behind by the plastic ban.

To regulate the import of paper as also to promote the flagship schemes like "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat", the Government has brought the imports of paper under compulsory registration from the 1st October 2022. The import policy of major paper products, such as newsprint, handmade paper, wallpaper base, duplicating paper, coated paper, uncoated paper, map-Litho and offset paper, excluding currency paper, bank bonds and cheque paper and security printing paper, has been amended from ‘Free to ‘Free subject to compulsory registration under Paper Import Monitoring System by the Directorate General of Free Trade.

One major near-term concern for the paper industry has been fluctuating wood pulp and fuel costs, given that the industry also relies on imported coal, wherein the prices have fluctuated over the last one year. Though the industry is managing these challenges by passing on such rises to the final customer as well as absorbing, wherever possible, on an aggregate basis, the long-term demand potential for the Indian paper industry remains intact, given the rising usage of different forms on paper in daily life.

6. Risks and Management Perception

The paper industry is labour intensive, as well as power and capital intensive, and is exposed to several risks i.e. changes in the government policies, raw material shortage, environment policies, competition, duties and taxes, technological obsolescence and external economic factors.

Your company adopts a comprehensive and integrated risk appraisal and mitigation process as part of its risk management policy.

The company uses agro waste materials, primarily Wheat straw and Sarkanda grass, as well as wood materials like chips, veneer and bamboo, as the basic raw materials to manufacture paper. The availability of these raw materials is seasonal. The raw material of all kinds is available in abundance on ground and thus its adequate availability may not be a constraint despite increased capacities of the other paper mills in and around the region. The continuous increase in prices of raw material and other inputs continues to be a matter of concern for the industry. However, locational advantage of your companys paper mill provides an added access to the major raw material sources and insulates itself to quite some extent on this front. We have suppliers connected to your company for the last several decades for supply of both Agro and Wood raw materials, by way of long term arrangements.

Indias wood resources are limited, and therefore the cost of wood is higher than in global comparison. In the absence of Governments enabling policies favoring industrial plantation, securing future wood supplies is one of Industrys big challenge.

To secure a substantial part of our wood requirements, your company had developed a social Agro-forestry process by creation of a Nursery at the Mill to grow premium quality clonal plants which has been doing very well. At the Nursery, saplings of clonal varieties of fast growing hard wood trees are grown and distributed to farmers, enabling the company to buys back the hardwood post the harvest. Domestic land under social forestry is expanding by approximately 10% annually. This sustainable initiative has created employment opportunities in the remote areas in close proximity to the mill thereby, helping rural development. We are also continuing our efforts for growing of plantations by touching base with the farming community and making them aware of the financial benefits attached to social farm forestry.

The paper industry consumes a large amount of energy and water. Energy costs that account for about 16-18 per cent of costs, vary depending on the fuel used for generating power. The cost of power has increased as a result of inadequate supply and increase in tariff for industrial consumers. The prospect of availability of good quality fuel is diminishing. This has been offset by your company by establishing a state-of-the-art captive Co-Gen Plant to meet its entire power requirements, thereby reducing its dependency on the grid power.

The company continued its efforts in arriving at a proper raw material mix, cost reductions and product mix optimization. The Chemical Recovery plant, Co-generation plant and other cost reduction measures coupled with variety of distinctive products manufactured with better and improved operational efficiencies has significantly increased its cost competitiveness.

Your company has also framed a ‘Risk Management Policy to identify and assess the key risk areas, monitor and report compliance and effectiveness of the policy and procedure. A Risk Management Committee as per the regulatory requirements has also been constituted to oversee the risk management process in the Company.

Further with the implementation of the NEP, the ban on single use plastics and Paper Import Monitoring System that has been put in place, we expect a huge demand for writing and printing paper and for the Paper Industry in India to grow.

7. Outlook

Paper plays a key role in communication, and as a packaging material. Demand for paper is closely linked to the prevalent economy conditions. Paper industry continues to have a reasonably moderate prospect in India during next few years as the demand of paper and paper products grow in line with the GDP growth. Paper continues to enjoy a relatively healthy demand on account of (i) lifecycle of a paper product from manufacture to consumption and disposal is short, as paper is used more in the nature of a consumable and not as a durable (ii) Wide usage, right from an individual to a corporate entity (iii) rightful replacement to single use plastic and (iv) no real low cost substitutes for paper.

The Indian paper and paperboard industry has the potential and the capability to service the demand in domestic and international market, and also to create huge employment avenues in rural India through agro production and forestry. This will only strengthen if the competitiveness of the value chain is encouraged by the government.

While Writing & Printing paper does not face any major threat from substitutes, the increased preference for online storage and dissemination of data and information could marginally impact the demand growth. However, despite the higher level of technology being used in the corporate sector, there has been no perceptible decline in the paper demand. The demand for the writing and printing paper is expected to rise sharply on account of the implementation of the National Educational Policy 2020, which will result in publication of new books, in 22 languages of India, under the revised curriculum. Furthermore, a variety of paper products are finding its way into the market due to the ban placed on use of certain plastic items.

Availability of adequate good quality raw materials at cost effective prices, higher capital outlay, high interest and capital costs, long gestation period and stringent environment regulations are the major entry barriers for Greenfield projects in the Indian Paper industry.

8. Companys Financial Performance & Analysis

The industry after witnessing two consecutive years of relative revenue contraction in FY 2021 and 2022, owing to a slowdown in demand for the paper segment, due to closure of educational institutions, as well as impact of covid-19, and a shift towards online and digital culture, witnessed a strong rebound in demand, consequent to a robust revival of economy and reopening of educational institutions in the current year. During the year under review, the Company achieved a production of 1,52,172 metric tonnes, as against 1,51,740 metric tonnes in the previous year. The quantitative figure for the sale of paper was 1,52,305 metric tonnes this year leaving 11 metric tonnes as closing stock, as against the sale of 1,51,674 metric tonnes in the previous year.

The company recorded a Net sales turnover (net of GST) including other income stood at INR 1,31,316.25 Lakhs (Previous Year INR 83,424.85 Lakhs) up by 57.1%; Operating Profit at INR 38,281.71 Lakhs (Previous Year INR 12,280.26 Lakhs) up by 211.7%; Profit before exceptional items INR 26,638.59 Lakhs (previous Year INR 770.42 Lakhs) up by 3,357.7%; Profit before Tax at INR 20,296.29 Lakhs (Previous year INR 770.42 Lakhs) up by 2,534.4%; and the Net Profit after Tax and other comprehensive income (expense) at INR 13,569.66 Lakhs (Previous year INR 1,322.10 Lakhs) up by 926.4% . The exceptional items INR 6,342.31 Lakhs (Previous Year INR Nil) represents tax adjustments as summarized below.

The Government of India vide Taxation Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2019 dated 20 September 2019, inserted Section 115BAA in the Income Tax Act, 1961, which provided domestic companies an option to pay Income tax at reduced tax rate effective April 1, 2019 subject to certain conditions. The company had opted to continue with the existing tax structure until utilisation of accumulated minimum alternative tax (MAT) credit. However, in the quarter ended 30 June 2022, the company had re-evaluated the new provision, assessed its impact and decided to opt for the new tax regime wef April 1, 2021. Consequently, tax expenses for the period have been considered at reduced tax rate and the Company has used the new tax rates to re-measure its deferred tax liabilities and has written off the accumulated minimum alternative tax (MAT) credit in the quarter ended 30 June 2022. The impact of this change on the tax assets and liabilities as on 31 March, 2022 has been recognised in profit and loss as an Exceptional Tax Item. This has no impact on the operational profits of the Company.

The initiatives taken by the company in the recent years in improving productivity and operational efficiencies have led to achieving better operational performance. The company has continued to take up projects in focused areas for operational improvement and this has also led to improved operational efficiencies, productivity, reduction in operational costs, and sizeable increase in savings.

The results of cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiencies achieved from the backward integration projects comprising of enhancing the capacities of pulp and paper, Chemical Recovery Plant and Captive Power Plant in 2021 have been visible in the financial performance for the year under review and will continue to be visible in the coming years.

The company has further undertaken the implementation of the capex projects with an outlay of INR 57 Crores towards debottlenecking, paper production capacity enhancement, optimisation of capacity utilization, cost reduction, new products, optimizing production of better margin products etc. The capex projects are funded through term loan of INR 38 Crores and the balance INR 19 Crores through internal accruals. The implementation of the projects is under way and are scheduled to be completed and commissioned by September 2023.

These initiatives have made your company not only one of the most cost competitive paper mills, but has also placed it amongst the large paper players in the writing and printing segment. Furthermore, continuous research & development have enabled the company to manufacture papers of distinctive prime quality and broader product mix, which is competing with the premium quality of other large paper mills.

9. Internal Control Systems

Your Company has established adequate internal control systems to provide reasonable assurance that the assets are safeguarded and transactions are properly authorized, recorded and correctly reported. Your company has already implemented SAP to further strengthen the control systems. It is a common practice to lay down a well thought business plan for each year. From the annual business plan, detailed budgets for revenue and capital for each quarter are determined. The actual performance is reviewed in comparison with the budget and deviations, if any, are addressed adequately. The internal control mechanism is well established. The internal control system is supplemented by regular management reviews and periodical reviews by an independent firm of chartered accountants, which evaluate the functioning and quality of internal controls and checks; and provide assurance of its adequacy and effectiveness. The scope of the internal audit covers a wide variety of operational methods and ensures compliance with specified standards with regard to availability and suitability of policies, practices and procedures, extent of adherence, reliability of management information system and authorization procedures including steps for safeguarding of assets. The Reports of internal audit are placed before Audit Committee for review. The audit committee reviews the adequacy of the internal control systems, audit findings and suggestions. The Companys Statutory Auditors regularly interact with the Audit Committee to share their findings and the status of further improvement actions under implementation.

10. Human Resources and Industrial Relations

Your company enjoys the support of a committed and well satisfied human capital. Human resources are invaluable assets of the company and the Companys endeavor has always been to retain the best professional and technical talent. The company lays great emphasis on proper management of human resources and skill development and believes that the human resource is the most important ingredient for achieving excellence in performance and for the sustainable growth of the business of the company. These practices enable the company to keep the attrition rate well below the industry average. The management has a process driven approach that invests in training and skill development needs of the employees on a regular basis through succession planning, on the job training and workshops. Progress made by the company has been possible in no small measures by efforts of the entire team.

Industrial relations were harmonious. Safety welfare and training at all levels of our employees continues to be the areas of major focus for the Company as recognised by the awards bestowed on the company by independent agencies.

11. Cautionary Statement

Statements in this "Managements Discussions and Analysis" are describing the Companys "forward looking statements" within the meaning of applicable laws and regulations. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied. Important factors that could make a difference to the Companys operations include global and Indian demand supply conditions, finished goods prices, raw material availability and prices, cyclical demand, changes in Government regulations, environmental laws, tax regimes, economic developments within India and abroad and other factors such as litigation, industrial relations and other unforeseen events. The Company assumes no responsibility in respect of forward looking statements made herein which may undergo changes in future on the basis of subsequent developments, information or events.