
The GODSY indicators showed a highly volatile week, especially for gold and silver.
Gold and Silver
Gold and silver prices moved sharply during the week. Silver was hit much harder. By the weekly close, silver was nearly 42 percent lower compared to its peak level from the previous week.
Despite the volatility, gold managed to end the week higher, while silver closed lower.
This divergence suggests that the gold-silver ratio still has room to move back towards its long-term average. Until that adjustment happens, price stability in both gold and silver may remain limited.
Crude Oil
Crude oil had touched $70 per barrel in the previous week. During this week, prices stayed within a narrow range of $68 to $70 per barrel. However, oil finally closed the week at around $68 per barrel.
Attention in global markets may have shifted slightly due to discussions around the Indo-US trade deal. Even so, geopolitical risks have not disappeared. The presence of the US naval fleet near Iran remains a concern. While Iran has not issued any direct threats, it has also not completely ruled out the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
US Dollar and Indian Rupee
The US dollar showed some strength during the week, although the dollar index could not sustain levels above 100.
What stood out was that the Indian rupee also strengthened during the same period. This was largely driven by short covering and positive sentiment around the Indo-US trade deal.
That said, the medium-term direction of the rupee against the dollar will become clearer only after the detailed terms of the Indo-US trade agreement are fully understood.
The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.
| Date |
Price (%) |
Open (%) |
High (%) |
Low (%) |
| 06-Feb-26 |
4.206 |
4.168 |
4.224 |
4.156 |
| 05-Feb-26 |
4.210 |
4.280 |
4.282 |
4.182 |
| 04-Feb-26 |
4.278 |
4.267 |
4.290 |
4.261 |
| 03-Feb-26 |
4.273 |
4.275 |
4.299 |
4.264 |
| 02-Feb-26 |
4.277 |
4.243 |
4.285 |
4.212 |
| 30-Jan-26 |
4.241 |
4.243 |
4.279 |
4.234 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
US bond yields edged lower from 4.241% to 4.206%. With the name of Kevin Warsh announced for next Fed chair, there is pressure on yields. Also, the global geopolitical risk is encouraging buying of US bonds, which also suppressed bond yields. For the week, the US bond yields touched a high of 4.299% and a low of 4.156%. Robust growth expectations for Q4 at 5.4% is likely to keep bond yields rangebound.
Here is the US dollar strength index (DXY) over last 5 trading sessions.
| Date |
Price (%) |
Open (%) |
High (%) |
Low (%) |
| 06-Feb-26 |
97.63 |
97.97 |
97.95 |
97.56 |
| 05-Feb-26 |
97.82 |
97.67 |
97.99 |
97.61 |
| 04-Feb-26 |
97.62 |
97.43 |
97.73 |
97.31 |
| 03-Feb-26 |
97.44 |
97.52 |
97.69 |
97.30 |
| 02-Feb-26 |
97.63 |
97.18 |
97.73 |
97.01 |
| 30-Jan-26 |
96.99 |
96.17 |
97.15 |
96.17 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
The 100 level may still be elusive, but the dollar index showed some signs of strength. This can be largely attributed to the Indo-US trade deal during the week and its robust growth forecast for Q4. However, for the year, dollar is still down more than 13%, and that remains an overhang on the dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 97.99 and a low of 97.01 during the week; essentially in a limited range.
The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.
| Date | Price (%) | Open (%) | High (%) | Low (%) |
| 06-Feb-26 |
6.733 |
6.651 |
6.756 |
6.651 |
| 05-Feb-26 |
6.651 |
6.695 |
6.696 |
6.638 |
| 04-Feb-26 |
6.695 |
6.721 |
6.730 |
6.695 |
| 03-Feb-26 |
6.721 |
6.769 |
6.769 |
6.717 |
| 02-Feb-26 |
6.769 |
6.695 |
6.777 |
6.695 |
| 30-Jan-26 |
6.695 |
6.699 |
6.714 |
6.687 |
Data Source: RBI
For the week, the India bond yields moved up from 6.695% to 6.733%. The rise in bond yields began when there was bond selling after Bloomberg deferred its decision to include Indian bonds in the CGAI. Later, the gross borrowings for FY27 was raised to ₹17.2 Trillion in the Union Budget, leading to a further spike in bond yields. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.777% and a low of 6.638%.
The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.
| Date |
Price (₹/$) |
Open (₹/$) |
High (₹/$) |
Low (₹/$) |
| 06-Feb-26 |
90.596 |
90.315 |
90.845 |
90.173 |
| 05-Feb-26 |
90.319 |
90.362 |
90.521 |
90.063 |
| 04-Feb-26 |
90.391 |
90.377 |
90.535 |
90.233 |
| 03-Feb-26 |
90.423 |
90.328 |
90.520 |
90.022 |
| 02-Feb-26 |
91.285 |
91.778 |
92.023 |
91.280 |
| 30-Jan-26 |
91.694 |
91.870 |
92.027 |
91.667 |
Data Source: RBI
The week saw a rush of strength in the Indian rupee after the Indo-US trade deal was announced. Higher exports were a big sentiment booster, although the real numbers have to justify this optimism. However, geopolitical uncertainty over US action in Iran; will keep FPIs in risk-off mode, for now. RBI is going slow on supporting the rupee due to local liquidity implications. USDINR touched weekly high of ₹90.063/$ and low of ₹92.023/$.
The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.
| Date |
Price ($/bbl) |
Open ($/bbl) |
High ($/bbl) |
Low ($/bbl) |
| 06-Feb-26 |
68.05 |
67.20 |
68.83 |
66.56 |
| 05-Feb-26 |
67.55 |
68.52 |
68.95 |
66.89 |
| 04-Feb-26 |
69.46 |
67.89 |
69.76 |
66.98 |
| 03-Feb-26 |
67.33 |
66.06 |
68.27 |
65.19 |
| 02-Feb-26 |
66.30 |
68.60 |
68.83 |
65.45 |
| 30-Jan-26 |
70.69 |
70.65 |
70.92 |
69.15 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
Brent Crude has faced some resistance around the $70/bbl levels. The big risk for markets is not about Venezuela, but the possibility of Iran blockading the Straits Hormuz, which still remains one of the busiest oil trading routes in the world. However, oversupply and weak demand will keep oil prices under pressure, and act as a cap at higher levels. Brent touched a high of $69.76/bbl and a low of $65.19/bbl during the week.
The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).
| Date |
Price ($/oz) |
Open ($/oz) |
High ($/oz) |
Low ($/oz) |
|
06-Feb-26 |
4,961.15 |
4,770.55 |
4,971.99 |
4,655.49 |
|
05-Feb-26 |
4,770.95 |
4,963.74 |
5,024.12 |
4,760.05 |
|
04-Feb-26 |
4,963.60 |
4,939.34 |
5,092.68 |
4,854.81 |
|
03-Feb-26 |
4,939.33 |
4,665.16 |
4,994.28 |
4,648.50 |
|
02-Feb-26 |
4,666.27 |
4,799.72 |
4,885.08 |
4,404.12 |
|
30-Jan-26 |
4,865.35 |
5,395.58 |
5,451.20 |
4,681.94 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
The one-way rally in gold was halted in the previous week. On Thursday, the price of gold hit touched a low of $4,760.05/oz, exactly a week after it had scaled a lifetime high of $5,595/oz. For now, it looks like the structure of the gold rally is still broadly intact. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,59,516 per 10 grams, still higher than previous week. The weekly high for gold was $5,092.68/oz and low was $4,404.12/oz.
The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).
| Date |
Price ($/oz) |
Open ($/oz) |
High ($/oz) |
Low ($/oz) |
|
06-Feb-26 |
78.0169 |
71.2800 |
78.1850 |
64.0571 |
|
05-Feb-26 |
71.2921 |
88.0600 |
90.4573 |
70.9600 |
|
04-Feb-26 |
88.0738 |
85.1599 |
92.2311 |
83.2857 |
|
03-Feb-26 |
85.1576 |
79.4200 |
89.2000 |
78.9347 |
|
02-Feb-26 |
79.4546 |
81.8845 |
87.9407 |
71.3678 |
|
30-Jan-26 |
84.7040 |
116.1339 |
118.5030 |
73.7850 |
Data Source: Bloomberg
From point to point, silver has now fallen 48% in just 8 trading sessions. Clearly, the very aggressive gold-silver ratio is working against silver. The gold silver ratio is now down to a more manageable 63.15, but still substantially off the traditional average of 90-100. In India, silver was trading around at ₹2,71,626 per KG, after crossing above ₹4,00,000 per KG in the previous week. Silver closed another extremely volatile week with losses.
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