Market outlook for next week (09-Feb to 13-Feb)

7 Feb 2026 , 11:34 PM

COMING WEEK WILL FOCUS ON IMPACT OF TRADE DEAL

Last week was packed with major developments. The Indian Stock Market experienced three big events almost back-to-back: the Union Budget, the Indo-US trade deal, and the RBI’s monetary policy. That meant a flood of information in a very short time.

The coming week is likely to be different. This is when markets, businesses, and analysts will slow down and start closely examining what all this actually means. The real impact of last week’s announcements will begin to show.

Among the three, the Indo-US trade deal stands out as the most important. While it has clearly boosted sentiment, it also brings up some serious questions that still need clear answers. How these questions are addressed will matter a lot for the road ahead.

• Will the cut in tariffs from 50% to 18% really make a meaningful difference to Indian exports? Even before the current tariffs were imposed, exports to the US were only slightly higher. If you add together textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, auto parts, and marine products, the key question is how much of a percentage increase we can realistically expect. That is something markets will start looking for answers to next week.

• The second issue is the impact of dollar-based imports. India currently imports about 45 billion dollars worth of goods from the US every year. If this number is expected to reach 500 billion dollars over the next five years, it implies that imports from the US would need to double starting as early as next year. That would mean a sharp rise in dollar-denominated imports and a much higher exposure to movements in the US dollar.

• The third question is whether Indian exports can eventually keep pace with this rise in imports and still maintain a trade surplus. In services, trade between India and the US is already balanced, with imports and exports at similar levels. The real challenge is how India can more than double its goods exports. Simply getting access to the US market will not be enough.

These are the tricky question that ben an answer in the coming week.

DATA TRIGGERS TO WATCH OUT NEXT WEEK

Here are key data points that will influence stock markets next week.

• Markets will be closely watching the impact of the spike in STT rates (announced in the Union Budget) on the F&O and cash market volumes. A 150% spike in futures STT is surely going to have an impact on F&O volumes and spreads. With markets likely to stabilize next week, the F&O impact will be the big data point to watch out for.
• The focus would be on export sectors like chemicals, auto components, textiles, gems & jewellery, marine exports etc. Oil could get expensive and that would also impact downstream marketing margins.
• Among the big policy announcements next week in India is the CPI inflation announcement. It was 1.33% for December, and January could see some impact of the spike in gold and silver prices. The Monetary Policy has projected a 70-bps impact on core inflation due to the rally in gold and silver; so, core inflation will hold the key.
• The US markets will see two key announcements. US inflation for January will be put out this week and that could harden from the current 2.7%. It would be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to higher inflation. Also, the unemployment number for January will be out this week; and it is expected to remain stagnant at 4.4% for now.
• Key global data points. FOMC Speak, Core Retail Sales, API Crude Stocks, Non-Farm payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Fed Balance Sheet (US). GDP, Trade Balance (EU); Current Account Balance (Japan); Bank of England (BOE) Speak, GDP, IIP, Trade Deficit (UK); and CPI, PPI, New Loans (China).

Let us shift focus to what small and medium investors should focus on next week.

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS BE FOCUSING ON NEXT WEEK?

While the broad macro data points are fine, individual investors must also focus on some the key points of immediate importance from an investment perspective.

• Investors should keep a watch on whether Nifty is able to break above 26,000 with volumes and whether Sensex can break above 85,000 with volumes. In the previous week, both these levels were breached, albeit briefly, before the volatility took the markets down. For now, this market remains a sell-on-rises market.
• Investors should keep an eye on some of the key large cap results for Q3FY26; including State Bank of India (SBI), Titan Ltd, Eicher Motors, Britannia Industries, Grasim Industries, Apollo Hospitals, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Divi’s Laboratories, ONGC, Hindustan Unilever, Hindalco, Coal India, and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).
• Investors must also keep an eye on key mid-cap results for Q3FY26; including Info Edge India (Naukri), Torrent Pharmaceuticals, IPCA Laboratories, Muthoot Finance, Lenskart Solutions, Ashok Leyland Ltd, Escorts Kubota, Jubilant Foodworks, Glaxo, Zydus Lifesciences, and Linde India. Mid-caps have given stellar profit growth in Q3.
• There are also some important dividend record dates falling next week for stocks like Power Grid, Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), National Hydroelectric Power Corp (NHPC), Emami Ltd, Apollo Tyres, Cummins Industries, page Industries, Sun TV Networks, NMDC, MRF Ltd, Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDL), Dynamatic Technologies, and RITES.
• Rupee and Crude Oil will be key factors to watch next week. Crude has been hovering between $68/bl and $70/bbl as the US Armada fleet near Iran has kept the oil market on tenterhooks. The rupee could turn vulnerable if the overall impact of the Indo-US trade deal would be to weaken the Indian rupee due to too much dollarization of imports.
• On the IPO front, there are two mainboard IPOs opening on Monday. AI service provider, Fractal Analytics, will raise ₹2,834 Crore from a fresh issue plus OFS in the coming week. Also, Aye Finance will hit the IPO market to raise ₹1,010 Crore, also through a combination of a fresh issue and an offer for sale (OFS).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to February 13, 2026.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY, SENSEX AND BANKNIFTY

VIX tapered this week from 13.63 levels to 11.94; as markets saw a clear fall in the fear factor in the markets with the trade deal offering greater certainty.

• Nifty closed at 25,694 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,556 and major support at 25,344. Immediate resistance is at 25,768 and later at 25,980. Nifty remains a Long Trade with a robust undertone, as long as it is above 25,553 with volumes. Short positions can only be initiated on Nifty if it closes below 25,553, with strong volumes.
• Sensex closed at 83,580 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 83,133 and major support at 82,446. Immediate resistance is at 83,820 and later at 84,507. Sensex remains a Long Trade with a robust undertone, as long as it is above 83,249 with volumes. Short positions can only be initiated on Sensex if it closes below 83,249, with strong volumes.
• Bank Nifty closed at 60,121 Spot. Bank Nifty has immediate support at 59,793 and major support at 59,288. Immediate resistance is at 60,299 and later at 60,804. Bank Nifty remains a Long Trade with a robust undertone, as long as it is above 59,682 with volumes. Short positions can only be initiated only on close below 59,682, with volumes.

The coming week will be relatively quiet after the big events of the last week. There will be the India CPI inflation, the US consumer inflation and the US unemployment data. However, the focus of Indian markets in the coming week will be on interpreting the fine print of the Indo-US trade deal. The more pragmatic it turns out, the better it is for the markets!