Market outlook for next week (12-Jan to 16-Jan)

30 Jan 2026 , 12:16 PM

SECTORAL STORY FOR WEEK TO JANUARY 09, 2026

The week to January 09, 2026 saw Nifty and Sensex close in the positive on the back of support from domestic institutions. The week saw FPIs outflows of $(466) Million. Rupee closed beyond ₹90/$ level but the big story of the week was the spike in geopolitical risk.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (09-Jan)	Index (02-Jan)
Nifty India Defence	1.35%	7,891.65	7,786.75
Nifty Consumer Durables	0.98%	37,602.95	37,239.40
Nifty Healthcare	-0.36%	14,672.05	14,725.65
Nifty IT	-0.76%	38,027.20	38,320.30
Nifty PSU Banks	-1.14%	8,601.05	8,699.90
Nifty FMCG	-1.21%	52,438.15	53,078.80
Nifty Private Banks	-1.39%	28,500.65	28,902.90
Nifty Banks	-1.50%	59,251.55	60,150.95
Nifty Chemicals	-1.56%	28,600.30	29,054.50
Nifty MNC	-1.79%	30,322.40	30,875.15
Nifty India Digital	-2.16%	9,314.90	9,521.00
Nifty Capital Markets	-2.34%	4,573.25	4,682.65
Nifty CPSE	-2.37%	6,434.45	6,590.60
Nifty Automobiles	-2.49%	28,087.65	28,803.65
Nifty Non-Banks	-2.72%	31,501.65	32,381.50
Nifty Realty	-2.76%	874.00	898.80
Nifty Metals	-2.86%	11,094.80	11,421.85
Nifty Mobility	-3.10%	22,763.20	23,490.90
Nifty Infrastructure	-4.74%	9,303.30	9,765.75
Nifty Oil & Gas	-5.76%	11,628.75	12,340.05

Data Source: NSE

For the week, 18 sectors gave negative returns, while 2 gave positive returns. What is relevant is that a total of 10 sectors fell more than 2% and 16 sectors fell over 1% for the week. Only Defence and Consumer Durables saw gains; while Oil & Gas, Infrastructure, Mobility, Metals, and Realty saw heavy selling during the week.

For the week; Defence gained on Venezuela story. The only other gaining sector was consumer durables, which is more on expectations of higher discretionary spending. Among losers, Oil & Gas got hit by the geopolitical oil supply risk, while for most other sectors it was about sentiments in the aftermath of the 500% tariffs threatened by the US.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at -1.93%. The top 5 sectors delivered -0.19% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of -0.87%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -3.13%, showing the markets clearly skewed towards the sellers and profit bookers.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY

On the positive side, the first advance estimate of FY26 GDP growth came in 90 bps higher at 7.4%, despite lower nominal growth signals. Even the lower US unemployment should be a positive considering that it reduces the pressure on the RBI to cut rates for now. IPO markets were back in action, while the markets await the $4 Billion of Reliance Jio. Indians would be pleased with the bounce in gold and silver amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty.

On the downside, geopolitical risk and national vulnerability got a new meaning after the US captured Madura and whisked to the US. The success of the move has emboldened Trump to now impose 500% tariffs on India, which could kill the Indian exports engine. Clearly, the US appears to be singling out India for harsh treatment and this could be a real test for the economy. Meanwhile, real GDP growth appears to be too much of a low-inflation story.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JANUARY 16, 2025

Here are key triggers that will influence stock markets next week.

• The Q3FY26 results seasons kicks off in right earnest this week. Companies giving out results this week include TCS, Avenue Supermarts, HCL Tech, Wipro, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Reliance, ICICI Pru Life, ICICI Pru AMC, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, and Jio Fin.
• India inflation data to be put out this week. CPI inflation is expected to bounce back from 0.71% in November to 1.50% in November. The WPI inflation, however, is expected to remain in the negative zone. Average inflation to be well below the RBI 4% target.
• India trade data to be out this week. After subdued trade deficit of $24.5 billion in November, trade deficit could spike in December amid supply constraints. Of greater interest will be the overall trade deficit (including services), which influences CAD.
• US to also inflation announce consumer inflation next week, where it is expected to be stable around the 2.7%-2.8% level. That could make rate cuts difficult, but markets will also be tuned to Fed speeches of John Williams, Neil Kashkari, and Raphael Bostic.
• Key global data points. Core CPI, New Home Sales, Budget Deficit, API Crude Stocks, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, IIP (US). Trade, MPC Minutes, ECB Bulletin (EU); Current Account (Japan); GDP, IIP, MPC Speak, Trade Deficit (UK); and Trade, New Loans (China).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to January 16, 2026.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX bounced from 9.45 levels to 10.83; on the back of global geopolitical risk. Even the low VIX has not really triggered a market rally this time around.

• Nifty closed at 25,683 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,557 and major support at 25,250. Immediate resistance is at 25,875 and later at 26,193. Nifty remains a Short Trade, unless it breaks above 25,973 with volumes. Longs only above that!
• Sensex closed at 83,576 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 83,184 and major support at 82,180. Immediate resistance is at 84,188 and later at 85,191. Sensex remains a Short Trade, till it breaks above 84,532 with volumes. Longs only above that!

The stock markets next week will be predicated on how the tariff story pans out and the global reaction to the US action in Venezuela. Data flows will be of less criticality, in a world where geopolitical risk is the order of the day!