Nifty cracks below 24,000 – Major large cap pain points

8 Nov 2024 , 03:03 PM

NIFTY CRACKS BELOW KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS

October 2024 was marked by heavy FPI selling, even as news flows stayed cautious. Headwinds like US election uncertainty, liquidity, and domestic results put Indian markets on the back foot. Once Nifty failed to sustain above 26,000 levels, it easily breached through the 25,000 and the 24,000 levels. Fed has already taken the initiative by cutting rates by 50 bps, but the RBI is still on wait and watch mode. Geopolitical risk in West Asia continues to be a challenge. Some of the macro numbers for the Nifty were quite perturbing. For October 2024, the Nifty corrected by -6.17%, while full year returns stood at 27.47% levels. The resilience in Nifty from the lows of the year was at 26%. However, the swing for Nifty going up to 7.89% means selling pressure is intense at higher levels. Here are best Nifty stocks on 4 key parameters viz. momentum returns, longer term returns, resilience, and Swing

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY STOCK RETURNS IN OCTOBER 2024

We start with October 2024 returns on Nifty stocks. With Nifty index returns of -6.17%, the losers obviously got the better of gainers. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, only 6 stocks gave positive returns and 44 gave negative returns in October 2024. Check the top-15 list.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SBIN	821.10	2.92%	44.81%	912.00	555.15	47.91%	9.97%
HDFCLIFE	720.00	1.40%	16.14%	761.20	511.40	40.79%	5.41%
ICICIBANK	1,294.80	1.40%	41.38%	1,362.35	909.30	42.40%	4.96%
WIPRO	553.10	0.92%	44.85%	579.90	377.00	46.71%	4.62%
HDFCBANK	1,734.30	0.55%	17.71%	1,794.00	1,363.55	27.19%	3.33%
BEL	285.15	0.33%	115.18%	340.50	130.75	118.09%	16.26%
LT	3,620.75	-0.85%	25.11%	3,919.90	2,871.05	26.11%	7.63%
TECHM	1,610.15	-1.03%	42.98%	1,761.85	1,113.80	44.56%	8.61%
EICHERMOT	4,909.95	-1.57%	49.12%	5,105.00	3,275.00	49.92%	3.82%
APOLLOHOSP	7,007.45	-1.83%	46.41%	7,316.95	4,790.00	46.29%	4.23%
HCLTECH	1,772.50	-2.78%	40.28%	1,888.50	1,235.00	43.52%	6.14%
SUNPHARMA	1,858.10	-3.70%	65.64%	1,960.35	1,068.35	73.92%	5.22%
GRASIM	2,703.50	-3.76%	44.27%	2,877.75	1,861.40	45.24%	6.06%
BHARTIARTL	1,620.00	-5.07%	76.54%	1,779.00	895.45	80.91%	8.94%
ITC	489.25	-5.31%	14.18%	528.50	399.35	22.51%	7.43%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 4 financials, 3 IT stocks, and 2 healthcare plays. The rest were spread out. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by auto stocks with Bajaj Auto, M&M, Maruti, and Tata Motors featuring in the last. FMCG stocks like Nestle, Tata Consumer, Hindustan Unilever and Titan also found them in the bottom list. The top 10 stocks gave average monthly return of 0.22% while the top 20 stocks averaged -2.46% for October 2024. That said it all.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY IN OCTOBER 2024

If 1-month returns are too much of momentum, the 1-year returns is saner indication of market strength. Nifty index generated annual returns of 27.47%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty 50 index, 45 stocks gave positive returns and only 5 stocks gave negative returns in last one year. Here is a quick look at the top-15 stocks.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
TRENT	7,140.00	-6.36%	224.36%	8,345.00	2,119.10	236.94%	14.44%
BEL	285.15	0.33%	115.18%	340.50	130.75	118.09%	16.26%
M&M	2,751.30	-13.80%	87.58%	3,222.10	1,450.00	89.74%	14.61%
BAJAJ-AUTO	9,827.00	-19.09%	84.05%	12,774.00	5,285.00	85.94%	23.07%
ADANIPORTS	1,376.00	-6.24%	78.90%	1,621.40	767.20	79.35%	15.14%
BHARTIARTL	1,620.00	-5.07%	76.54%	1,779.00	895.45	80.91%	8.94%
NTPC	408.30	-7.26%	75.47%	448.45	232.10	75.92%	8.95%
SUNPHARMA	1,858.10	-3.70%	65.64%	1,960.35	1,068.35	73.92%	5.22%
SHRIRAMFIN	3,139.95	-12.09%	65.01%	3,652.25	1,870.70	67.85%	14.03%
HEROMOTOCO	4,979.15	-13.23%	61.35%	6,246.25	3,041.50	63.71%	20.29%
POWERGRID	320.80	-8.55%	59.64%	366.25	200.50	60.00%	12.41%
EICHERMOT	4,909.95	-1.57%	49.12%	5,105.00	3,275.00	49.92%	3.82%
HINDALCO	684.10	-9.91%	48.27%	772.65	453.25	50.93%	11.46%
COALINDIA	452.55	-11.10%	47.42%	543.55	305.85	47.96%	16.74%
APOLLOHOSP	7,007.45	-1.83%	46.41%	7,316.95	4,790.00	46.29%	4.23%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best long term returns in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 PSUs, 4 Auto stocks, and 2 healthcare plays. The rest were spread out. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by 6 financial stocks (HDFC Bank, HDFC Life, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Bank, and IndusInd Bank) and 6 FMCG stocks (ITC, Tata Consumer, Titan, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, and Nestle). The top 10 stocks gave average annual return of 93.41% while the top 20 stocks averaged 68.85% for October 2024. That was a good story.

 

NIFTY RESILIENCE SCORE IN OCTOBER 2024

One of the proxies we can use is the extent of bounce from the 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year was 26.00%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 2 stocks bounced more than 100% from the lows, while 13 stocks bounced over 50% from the lows. Resilience broadly corresponds with annual returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
TRENT	7,140.00	-6.36%	224.36%	8,345.00	2,119.10	236.94%	14.44%
BEL	285.15	0.33%	115.18%	340.50	130.75	118.09%	16.26%
M&M	2,751.30	-13.80%	87.58%	3,222.10	1,450.00	89.74%	14.61%
BAJAJ-AUTO	9,827.00	-19.09%	84.05%	12,774.00	5,285.00	85.94%	23.07%
BPCL	311.80	-15.61%	-12.93%	376.00	172.33	80.93%	17.07%
BHARTIARTL	1,620.00	-5.07%	76.54%	1,779.00	895.45	80.91%	8.94%
ADANIPORTS	1,376.00	-6.24%	78.90%	1,621.40	767.20	79.35%	15.14%
NTPC	408.30	-7.26%	75.47%	448.45	232.10	75.92%	8.95%
SUNPHARMA	1,858.10	-3.70%	65.64%	1,960.35	1,068.35	73.92%	5.22%
SHRIRAMFIN	3,139.95	-12.09%	65.01%	3,652.25	1,870.70	67.85%	14.03%
HEROMOTOCO	4,979.15	-13.23%	61.35%	6,246.25	3,041.50	63.71%	20.29%
POWERGRID	320.80	-8.55%	59.64%	366.25	200.50	60.00%	12.41%
HINDALCO	684.10	-9.91%	48.27%	772.65	453.25	50.93%	11.46%
EICHERMOT	4,909.95	-1.57%	49.12%	5,105.00	3,275.00	49.92%	3.82%
COALINDIA	452.55	-11.10%	47.42%	543.55	305.85	47.96%	16.74%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 5 PSUs and 4 Auto stocks while others were spread out. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by 6 FMCG stocks (ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consumer, Asian Paints, Titan, and Nestle India) and 5 BFSI stocks (Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, and IndusInd Bank). The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 98.96% while the top 20 stocks averaged 74.66% for October 2024 from the lows of the year.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high and measures if swing is favourable or not. Lower the gap, higher the swing. Nifty had a moderately strong swing factor of 7.89%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty 50 index, only 5 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 18 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has deteriorated sharply since August 2024.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
HDFCBANK	1,734.30	0.55%	17.71%	1,794.00	1,363.55	27.19%	3.33%
EICHERMOT	4,909.95	-1.57%	49.12%	5,105.00	3,275.00	49.92%	3.82%
APOLLOHOSP	7,007.45	-1.83%	46.41%	7,316.95	4,790.00	46.29%	4.23%
WIPRO	553.10	0.92%	44.85%	579.90	377.00	46.71%	4.62%
ICICIBANK	1,294.80	1.40%	41.38%	1,362.35	909.30	42.40%	4.96%
SUNPHARMA	1,858.10	-3.70%	65.64%	1,960.35	1,068.35	73.92%	5.22%
HDFCLIFE	720.00	1.40%	16.14%	761.20	511.40	40.79%	5.41%
GRASIM	2,703.50	-3.76%	44.27%	2,877.75	1,861.40	45.24%	6.06%
HCLTECH	1,772.50	-2.78%	40.28%	1,888.50	1,235.00	43.52%	6.14%
ITC	489.25	-5.31%	14.18%	528.50	399.35	22.51%	7.43%
LT	3,620.75	-0.85%	25.11%	3,919.90	2,871.05	26.11%	7.63%
TECHM	1,610.15	-1.03%	42.98%	1,761.85	1,113.80	44.56%	8.61%
ULTRACEMCO	11,076.90	-6.52%	32.03%	12,138.00	8,351.10	32.64%	8.74%
CIPLA	1,553.00	-6.79%	29.18%	1,702.05	1,164.55	33.36%	8.76%
BHARTIARTL	1,620.00	-5.07%	76.54%	1,779.00	895.45	80.91%	8.94%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 3 Financials, 3 IT stocks and 3 Healthcare stocks; while the rest were spread out. If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by 3 FMCG stocks (Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consumer, and Nestle India) and 4 Auto stocks (Maruti, Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors). The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 5.12% while the top 20 stocks averaged 7.16% for October 2024, compared to the high price of the year.