Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to December 20, 2025

24 Dec 2025 , 02:33 PM

MORE THAN DATA FLOWS, IT IS ALL ABOUT THE USDINR

Last week, the trade deficit data came in sharply lower at $24.5 Billion, but the CAD for Q3 is still likely to be sharply higher. The WPI inflation hinted at a fall in manufacturing costs, while the RBI MPC minutes were less confident about further rate cuts from here on.

While data flows will continue to matter, the big story is still about the Indian rupee. That is largely a function of the extent of RBI intervention and dollar selling. It is not clear how aggressively the RBI is willing to defend the dollar and, at what levels?

1. US BOND YIELDS TAPER ON JOBS DATA

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 6 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Dec-25	4.151	4.126	4.157	4.124
18-Dec-25	4.116	4.147	4.147	4.108
17-Dec-25	4.151	4.151	4.182	4.143
16-Dec-25	4.149	4.170	4.198	4.141
15-Dec-25	4.182	4.182	4.188	4.149
12-Dec-25	4.196	4.147	4.200	4.147

Data Source: Bloomberg

The US bond yields tapered for the week from 4.196% to 4.151%. The sharp spike in the unemployment level in the US to 4.6% almost makes another rate cut in January 2026 inevitable. That is reflected in lower bond yields. For the week, the US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.198% and low of 4.108%.

2. US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); 100 LEVELS STILL ELUSIVE

Here is the US dollar index (DXY), an index of dollar strength, over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Dec-25	98.60	98.46	98.75	98.42
18-Dec-25	98.43	98.38	98.56	98.17
17-Dec-25	98.37	98.21	98.64	98.18
16-Dec-25	98.15	98.27	98.32	97.87
15-Dec-25	98.31	98.40	98.48	98.14
12-Dec-25	98.40	98.32	98.53	98.30

Data Source: Bloomberg

It is now 3 weeks since the dollar index (DXY) breached above 100 levels, and has since faced resistance at the 100 levels. The jobs data points to another rate cut in January, and that is keeping the dollar index under pressure. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.75 and a low of 97.87 this week. Dollar weakness looks all set to intensify.

3. INDIA BENCHMARK YIELD EDGES HIGHER

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
19-Dec-25	6.606	6.570	6.611	6.568
18-Dec-25	6.570	6.601	6.603	6.570
17-Dec-25	6.601	6.573	6.602	6.564
16-Dec-25	6.573	6.594	6.607	6.573
15-Dec-25	6.594	6.597	6.616	6.585
12-Dec-25	6.596	6.611	6.611	6.547

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged higher from 6.596% to 6.606%. Bond yields hardened on Friday, after the RBI MPC minutes hinted at calibrated rate cuts from here. Also, the prospects of a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit is pushing up yields. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.616% and a low of 6.564%.

4. RUPEE SHOWED LATE RECOVERY ON RBI INTERVENTION

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
19-Dec-25	89.577	90.238	90.302	89.255
18-Dec-25	90.267	90.389	90.464	90.042
17-Dec-25	90.409	91.020	91.075	89.906
16-Dec-25	90.949	90.777	91.082	90.710
15-Dec-25	90.775	90.550	90.793	90.510
12-Dec-25	90.584	90.188	90.652	90.174

Data Source: RBI

The USDINR stayed under pressure for most of the week, before RBI intervention triggered a sharp rally on Friday. During the week, the rupee even briefly went beyond ₹91/$, but closed at ₹89.58/$. Amid pressure of NDF selling and hedging demand, RBI defended the rupee aggressively. USDINR touched a weekly high of ₹89.255/$ and a low of ₹91.082/$.

5. BRENT CRUDE FALLS ON SUPPLY CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
19-Dec-25	60.47	59.72	60.65	59.40
18-Dec-25	59.82	60.61	60.67	59.54
17-Dec-25	59.68	59.30	60.74	59.25
16-Dec-25	58.92	60.39	60.40	58.72
15-Dec-25	60.56	61.09	61.50	60.13
12-Dec-25	61.12	61.60	61.86	60.81

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices fell from $61.12/bbl to $60.47/bbl for the week. On 3 out of 5 trading days, Brent Crude actually closed below $60/bbl. With a surge in shale output and a growing OPEC supply glut, Brent looks a lot weaker. Brent touched a high of $61.50/bbl and a low of $58.72/bbl during the week.

6. SPOT GOLD EDGES UP ON RISING UNCERTAINTY

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
19-Dec-25	4,338.55	4,332.33	4,356.65	4,309.01
18-Dec-25	4,332.40	4,341.06	4,374.69	4,308.60
17-Dec-25	4,341.08	4,303.80	4,349.13	4,301.27
16-Dec-25	4,303.80	4,302.58	4,335.16	4,271.34
15-Dec-25	4,302.70	4,299.00	4,350.50	4,285.21
12-Dec-25	4,302.43	4,283.26	4,353.72	4,257.60

Data Source: Bloomberg

The week saw Spot Gold edging up from $4,302.43/oz to $4,338.55/oz. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,36,260 per 10 grams on weak rupee. The rate cut has sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, and now one more rate cut looks likely in January 2026. Gold touched a weekly high of $4,374.69/oz and low of $4,271.34/oz.

7. SPOT SILVER DEFIES GRAVITY FOR THE WEEK

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
19-Dec-25	67.1663	65.4383	67.4750	64.4800
18-Dec-25	65.4381	66.3264	66.6350	64.6289
17-Dec-25	66.3200	63.7921	66.9057	63.6706
16-Dec-25	63.7914	63.9778	64.1689	62.1660
15-Dec-25	63.9677	61.5650	64.1721	60.5450
12-Dec-25	62.0194	63.5782	64.6699	60.8037

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the fourth week in a row, spot silver continued to defy gravity, and closed significantly higher at $67.1663/oz. For the week, silver touched a peak of $67.4750/oz. In India, silver scaled above ₹2,19,000 per KG level. For silver, the demand is coming less from safe-haven and more from industrial uses in electronics, alternate energy, and defence. Silver continues to be winning in the Gold-Silver ratio battle!