Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to December 27, 2025

30 Dec 2025 , 06:30 PM

YEAR 2025 WAS ALL ABOUT PRECIOUS METALS

As we look back at year 2025, the one thing that stands out is gold and silver. The year has seen gold rallying by over 72% and silver rallying by nearly 170%; returns that were only bettered in 1979 in the recorded history of precious metals. There was short covering too.

The week saw data flows in the form of slightly improved core sector growth in India at 1.76%. The rupee remained stable at below ₹90/$, thanks to RBI intervention. US Q3 GDP growth flattered on the upside at 4.3% this week. Global macros were stable, but fickle.

• US BOND YIELDS FALL ON RATE CUT HOPES

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Dec-25	4.134	4.137	4.153	4.110
25-Dec-25	4.133	4.133	4.137	4.131
24-Dec-25	4.134	4.159	4.173	4.132
23-Dec-25	4.169	4.169	4.202	4.139
22-Dec-25	4.171	4.153	4.174	4.153
19-Dec-25	4.151	4.126	4.157	4.124

Data Source: Bloomberg

US bond yields fell from 4.151% to 4.134%. The 4.6% unemployment almost made rate cut in January a certainty, despite robust Q3 GDP. FOMC minutes next week will be critical for the rate decision. Fall in bond yields can also be ascribed to bond buying pushing up prices. For the week, the US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.202% and low of 4.110%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); WEAKENS DURING THE WEEK

Here is the US dollar strength index (DXY) over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Dec-25	97.698	97.635	97.815	97.535
25-Dec-25	97.681	97.550	97.695	97.425
24-Dec-25	97.681	97.550	97.695	97.425
23-Dec-25	97.613	97.865	97.870	97.525
22-Dec-25	97.954	98.280	98.370	97.855
19-Dec-25	98.252	98.115	98.420	98.090

Data Source: Bloomberg

It is 4 weeks since dollar index (DXY) breached above 100 levels. That level has since become the resistance. While robust GDP growth is positive for the dollar index, the dollar weakness is likely to continue due to another possible rate cut in January 2026. US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.37 and a low of 97.70 this week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS ALSO EDGE LOWER

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
26-Dec-25	6.560	6.538	6.574	6.537
25-Dec-25	6.538	6.538	6.538	6.538
24-Dec-25	6.538	6.637	6.637	6.532
23-Dec-25	6.637	6.669	6.700	6.637
22-Dec-25	6.669	6.606	6.673	6.606
19-Dec-25	6.606	6.570	6.611	6.568

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged lower from 6.606% to 6.560%. There has been rise in rate cut expectations after RBI MPC minutes, triggering demand for bonds. However, prospects of a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit is likely to offer support to bond yields. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.700% and a low of 6.532%.

• RUPEE HOLDS STRONG; THANKS TO RBI INTERVENTION

The table captures the official USD/INR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
26-Dec-25	89.796	89.753	89.962	89.697
25-Dec-25	89.736	89.735	89.736	89.735
24-Dec-25	89.814	89.534	89.860	89.419
23-Dec-25	89.436	89.563	89.851	89.411
22-Dec-25	89.604	89.542	89.768	89.446
19-Dec-25	89.577	90.238	90.302	89.255

Data Source: RBI

The way the RBI has been aggressively intervening in selling dollars, it looks like they are targeting yearly close for the rupee at below ₹90/$. During the week, the rupee closed on all days below ₹90/$. While NDF selling pressure and hedging demand abated, RBI defended the rupee aggressively. USDINR touched a weekly high of ₹89.411/$ and a low of ₹89.962/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS ON SUPPLY CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
26-Dec-25	60.64	62.30	62.67	60.56
25-Dec-25	62.24	62.50	62.73	62.02
24-Dec-25	62.24	62.50	62.73	62.02
23-Dec-25	62.38	61.95	62.57	61.72
22-Dec-25	62.07	60.60	62.17	60.53
19-Dec-25	60.47	59.72	60.65	59.40

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices opened the week higher at $62.07/bbl but closed almost flat at $60.64/bbl. The pressure was visible after discounts on Russian crude widened to $25-30/bbl. There is already pressure on crude prices due to expected oversupply from OPEC and US shale. Brent touched a high of $62.73/bbl and a low of $60.53/bbl during the week.

• SPOT GOLD RALLIES OVER 70% IN 2025

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
26-Dec-25	4,532.63	4,479.64	4,550.11	4,475.10
25-Dec-25	4,495.35	4,487.10	4,500.35	4,483.59
24-Dec-25	4,479.64	4,488.81	4,525.71	4,448.27
23-Dec-25	4,488.82	4,445.62	4,499.87	4,429.92
22-Dec-25	4,445.95	4,338.98	4,449.60	4,337.90
19-Dec-25	4,338.55	4,332.33	4,356.65	4,309.01

Data Source: Bloomberg

The week saw Spot Gold rallying 4.5% from $4,338.55/oz to $4,532.63/oz. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,41,220 per 10 grams. The Fed rate cut also reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, and now one more rate cut looks likely in January 2026. There was also short covering in gold. The weekly high for gold was $4,550.11/oz and low was $4,337.90/oz.

• SPOT SILVER RALLIES 170% IN YEAR 2025

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
26-Dec-25	79.1609	71.9650	79.3274	71.9650
25-Dec-25	73.1275	73.6405	73.8240	72.7035
24-Dec-25	71.9684	71.4550	72.7250	70.1909
23-Dec-25	71.4549	69.0681	71.5875	68.8429
22-Dec-25	69.0600	67.3860	69.4700	67.2976
19-Dec-25	67.1663	65.4383	67.4750	64.4800

Data Source: Bloomberg

For the fourth week in a row, spot silver defied gravity, gaining 17.9% in the week to $79.1609/oz. In India, silver scaled above ₹2,51,000 per KG level. Apart from undersupply in in electronics, alternate energy, and defence applications; silver also saw aggressive short covering this week. Silver continues to be leading the Gold-Silver ratio battle!