Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to January 10, 2026

30 Jan 2026 , 12:26 PM

EVENT RISK IS BACK TO HAUNT INDIAN MARKETS

Event risk was back to haunt Indian asset markets. It started with the US capturing the Venezuelan chief, Maduro, which created tumult in the global oil markets. Then, the US has also threatened to raise tariffs on India 10-fold to 500%, making most exports unviable.

Not surprisingly, the week saw equity markets dropping sharply and bond yields volatile. Crude oil spiked on supply concerns, but the biggest beneficiary of this event risk was precious metals. Gold and silver recouped all the losses of the previous week.

In terms of specific data points, the first advance estimate (FAE) of FY26 India GDP came in at 7.4%, although nominal growth remains an issue. The US unemployment rate for Dec-25 sobered to 4.4%, reducing the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in January 2025.

• US BOND YIELDS FALL ON RISK-OFF BUYING

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
09-Jan-26	4.171	4.169	4.211	4.159
08-Jan-26	4.183	4.153	4.187	4.132
07-Jan-26	4.138	4.171	4.171	4.124
06-Jan-26	4.179	4.169	4.197	4.161
05-Jan-26	4.163	4.191	4.195	4.148
02-Jan-26	4.189	4.195	4.197	4.149

Data Source: Bloomberg

US bond yields fell from 4.189% to 4.171%. The fall in bond yields was marginal, and was largely led by risk-off buying in safe haven American bonds. That put some pressure on the benchmark bond yields in the US. Trump’s aggression appears to be sobering yields. The US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.211% and low of 4.124%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); LOOKS BETTER FOR SECOND WEEK

Here is the US dollar strength index (DXY) over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
09-Jan-26	99.13	98.91	99.26	98.90
08-Jan-26	98.93	98.74	98.98	98.68
07-Jan-26	98.68	98.58	98.75	98.50
06-Jan-26	98.58	98.41	98.63	98.16
05-Jan-26	98.27	98.48	98.86	98.25
02-Jan-26	98.42	98.24	98.49	98.14

Data Source: Bloomberg

While the 100 level continues to be elusive, the dollar index hardened another 71 bps in the week. This can be largely attributed to risk-off buying in US bonds, over and above the attractive GDP growth rate and falling unemployment. For the year, dollar is still down over 10%. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 99.26 and a low of 98.16 this week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS HARDEN ON RISK OFF SELLING

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
09-Jan-26	6.636	6.630	6.648	6.627
08-Jan-26	6.630	6.611	6.630	6.611
07-Jan-26	6.611	6.612	6.635	6.611
06-Jan-26	6.612	6.633	6.644	6.612
05-Jan-26	6.633	6.609	6.655	6.609
02-Jan-26	6.609	6.581	6.624	6.578

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields moved up from 6.609% to 6.636%. The reduced rate cut expectations and the likely spike in fiscal deficit are definitely key factors.  However, this week also saw bond selling due to risk-off shift amid rising event risks. Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.655% and a low of 6.609%.

• RUPEE CLOSES ANOTHER WEEK BEYOND 90-LEVELS

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
09-Jan-26	90.244	89.883	90.318	89.855
08-Jan-26	89.905	89.852	90.132	89.730
07-Jan-26	89.864	90.166	90.232	89.807
06-Jan-26	90.108	90.231	90.264	90.050
05-Jan-26	90.233	90.131	90.311	90.095
02-Jan-26	90.014	89.942	90.255	89.864

Data Source: RBI

For second week in a row, Indian rupee gave a close beyond ₹90/$. With rising event risk, the RBI has been going slow on its support plans. The recovery in the early part of the week could not be sustained amid 500% tariff concerns. RBI is yet to firm its plans of support beyond 90/$ mark. USDINR touched weekly high of ₹89.687/$ and low of ₹90.255/$.

• BRENT CRUDE SPIKES 4.3% ON VENEZUELA CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
09-Jan-26	63.34	62.60	63.92	61.83
08-Jan-26	61.99	60.29	63.02	59.96
07-Jan-26	59.96	60.10	60.93	59.81
06-Jan-26	60.70	61.70	62.33	60.40
05-Jan-26	61.76	60.99	61.89	59.75
02-Jan-26	60.75	60.86	61.38	60.01

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude took support around $60/bbl and bounced sharply this week on concerns that the situation in Venezuela could disrupt oil supply chains. Venezuelan output will take some time to come in. However, oversupply will remain a factor in capping crude prices. Brent touched a high of $63.92/bbl and a low of $59.75/bbl during the week.

• SPOT GOLD RECOUPS DECEMBER-END LOSSES

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
09-Jan-26	4,510.45	4,476.71	4,517.40	4,452.62
08-Jan-26	4,476.73	4,453.04	4,479.80	4,407.48
07-Jan-26	4,453.04	4,497.33	4,500.65	4,423.47
06-Jan-26	4,497.34	4,448.56	4,497.54	4,427.25
05-Jan-26	4,448.47	4,356.12	4,456.05	4,345.88
02-Jan-26	4,330.50	4,333.00	4,402.53	4,310.01

Data Source: Bloomberg

The week saw Spot Gold rally 4.2% from $4,330.50/oz to $4,510.45/oz. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,39,556 per 10 grams. The spike in gold during the week was largely on the back of geopolitical risk created by the US capturing Maduro of Venezuela, and its global repercussions. The weekly high for gold was $4,517.40/oz and low was $4,345.88/oz.

• SPOT SILVER RALLIES 10.1% FOR THE WEEK

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
09-Jan-26	79.9724	76.9214	80.5274	75.4892
08-Jan-26	76.9215	78.1512	79.0462	73.8314
07-Jan-26	78.1527	81.2979	82.7738	76.3664
06-Jan-26	81.2979	76.5502	81.4387	75.8830
05-Jan-26	76.5600	73.7428	77.9000	72.9152
02-Jan-26	72.6600	71.2950	74.5750	71.2950

Data Source: Bloomberg

After the sharp fall last week, silver was back with rally of 10.1% at $79.97/oz. In India, silver rallied to ₹2,57,000 per KG level. However, markets still expect upsides on silver due to industrial demand from electronics, alternate energy, and defence applications. For now, the Gold/Silver ratio appears to be pushing both precious metals higher!